Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Rally Projection & TSLA Update

By -

In my last post on Tuesday I was looking at the prospects for this rally on US equity indices and the first thing to say is that the tariff reprieve that triggered this rally still looks partial, temporary and fragile and that the new tariffs currently being trailed by the administration as coming soon on electronics, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals may well kill this rally when they start being implemented and that may well start soon.

The other thing I’d mention here is that while there are a lot of negotiations going on with US trading partners, it does appear that the bottom line for this administration seems to be a baseline tariff level at 10% across the board, with an additional 15% across the board on steel, aluminum, cars and perhaps soon tariffs other goods such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors that may also not be negotiable.

(more…)

Uncertain Smile

By -

In my posts last week on Wednesday and Friday I was looking at possible rally options from the current 2025 lows, and was looking for a rally lasting at minimum a week or two to make right shoulders on the possible H&S patterns that may be forming on SPX, QQQ and DIA here. That is proceeding slowly but I was thinking then that at minimum this rally would ideally last a week or two, and I think the odds of that look decent. The rally will be a week old tomorrow lunchtime, this is a holiday week and while there has been much talk of further tariffs coming soon, these have not yet been implemented.

I did say as well last week though that this tariff reprieve was partial, temporary and fragile, and that remains the case. If the new tariffs being trailed by the administration on electronics, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals start hitting next week then this rally may be over, and a new leg down may begin.

(more…)

The Bigger Picture on the US Dollar

By -

I’ve been mulling over the best way to do my review of the US dollar, US treasuries, and why the US dollar may lose its status as the world’s main reserve currency, and how that might look, and I’m splitting this into three posts this week.

The first post is this one and will look at the US dollar and where it may go from here.

The second post will look at US treasuries and where they may head from here.

The third post will be looking at the US dollar’s status as the main reserve currency, US treasuries as the main reserve asset for US dollars, why that may already be changing, and what other options might replace it over the next few years.

(more…)

A Distorted Mirror Image

By -

I posted the first Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart below at the end of December and there are two notes that I made on it then that are worth another look today.

The more important one of those is that I noted that any sharp decline on equity indices takes Bitcoin down with it, and we have most definitely been seeing that. On the flip side, any significant rally in equities will likely take Bitcoin up with it.

The other note I made that is worth remembering is that I noted that all of the RSI 5 buy and sell signals on this chart reached the full target (at 70 on RSI 5 for buy signals and 30 on RSI 5 for sell signals).

(more…)

In The Eye Of The Storm

By -

In my last post on Tuesday I was looking at possible rally options from the current 2025 lows, and was looking for a rally lasting at minimum a week or two to make right shoulders on the possible H&S patterns that may be forming on SPX, QQQ and DIA here.

Getting a rally that lasted that long was seeming somewhat doubtful on Wednesday morning but then the highest tariffs were delayed for 90 days and a window of opportunity opened to see that rally.

How much of a reprieve was this tariff delay? Well the existing tariffs already in place before April 2 are still in force against Mexico and Canada, the 25% worldwide tariffs on steel and aluminium are in place, and the 25% worldwide tariff on cars and car parts imported into the US announced before April 2 remains as well. Of the other April 2 tariffs, all have been cut to 10% except the tariffs on China, with the US and China now in a full trade war. The White House has made it clear that a minimum tariff of 10% will now be levied on all trade partners indefinitely with rare exceptions that may be negotiated.

(more…)