Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The End of the Beginning

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In my last post on Thursday 8th May I was looking at the bear flag inflection point that US equity markets were in last week. That broke up hard on the 90 day delay on most of the China tariffs over the weekend.

I was saying in that post that a break and conversion of the 200dma on SPX would open a possible retest of the all time highs, and the 200dma on SPX has now been converted with a strong gap over it on Monday and closes well above it every day this week.

Is this the end of market excitement this year? I think probably not, but it is the end of the beginning of that market excitement, and I think a retest of the SPX all time high soon is now likely.

After that I still think that the main event of the markets this year may be based around a crisis in the bond markets but elsewhere there are still important points to remember.

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Canaries and Cheerleaders

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I called the likely start of a strong rally on Crypto in my post on 11th April, and we have seen that rally. This has been, as I titled my post that day, a distorted mirror image of the rally on equities at the same time.

As of this morning I had not called a candidate rally high on either Crypto or equities for the move up from there as the setups didn’t look ready yet. That’s still the case on equities but there is now a high quality setup to reverse down here on Crypto for at least a strong retracement, and possibly a 2025 low retest.

I have a number of instruments I watch to warn me of possible direction changes coming on equities and Crypto is one of those, along with oil, copper, lumber and some others. I’m not assuming that equities will set up to reverse back down as well shortly but they may well. At the least there is a good case to see some consolidation on equities here. Crypto and equities do tend to be strongly correlated, but they aren’t in full sync all the time, and it may be that this move can happen without anything more than some sideways consolidation on equities.

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Bitcoin Reaches Double Bottom Targets

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I wrote a post on 11th April looking at a possible rally options on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I wrote a follow up post on 23rd April after Bitcoin broke up from that double top.

On Bitcoin there was a good quality double bottom that on a sustained break over 88k would look for a target in the 102-4k area. Bitcoin made a high at 105k last night so that double bottom target has been reached. So what now?

Well I was looking in that first post at the larger double top target in the 69-70k area and if there is an overall bull flag forming here then Bitcoin may reverse down from here and then hit that target as that overall bull flag forms.

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Assessing Bear Flag Inflection Point

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In my post on 17th April I posted some 15min charts with arrows showing an ideal path to forming bear flag wedges on SPX, QQQ and DIA. I added one for IWM in the post after that. I’ve updated these since but left the original arrows where I first drew them for reference on the last four charts today so you can see I wasn’t that far off.

In my post on Tuesday 29th April I was saying that ideally we would see a modest decline (by recent standards) to play out some negative divergence on SPX, QQQ, ES and NQ and we saw that play out over the next few days with all the hourly and 15min sell signals I mentioned in that post reaching target. After that I was looking for another and probably last leg up within those bear flags and since then we have seen new rally highs on all four.

In my last post on Thursday 1st May I was looking for more upside with a likely high early this week, and that hasn’t quite delivered, though I think there is a good case for seeing my target area hit today or tomorrow.

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