Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Index Update

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The charts of the major market indexes, on the whole, still allow for the prospect of a meaningful breakdown in the weeks and months ahead. It is far from a foregone conclusion, however, and there is one chart I find especially troubling. Let’s take a look.

First up is the NASDAQ Composite, whose price needs to stay beneath the dashed red horizontal in order to remain viable for a move to the downside anytime soon. It will be a couple of weeks until tech earnings start to tumble in, so right now we’re at the mercy of Iran.

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Massengill Market

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It was a quiet overnight session. As I’m typing these words, the /ES is up all of 0.01%. The biggest news the market could come up with today is the US IPO of the boringly-named SK Hynix, which sounds like something you’d come across in the feminine hygiene aisle at your local CVS.

In fact, they are a South Korea (hence SK – get it?) maker of memory chips, whose chart is below (yes, SlopeCharts charts stocks from around the world!) Put a fork in it, because it’s blatantly obvious this is just a cash-grab from a U.S. market that has been going absolutely ape for semis and memory since March 30th.

does this look like an opportunity to get in on the ground floor to you?
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Oil Bounce Likely Here

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On the 2nd of June I wrote a post looking at the bullish looking setup on oil, but that then fell apart in the days before the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed by President Trump at Versailles on 17th June. In the three weeks since then the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTIC) crudes have fallen almost to pre-war levels before the most recent low last week.

Now after any steep decline there will generally be a low found and a bounce will start that should at least retrace a sizable proportion of the preceding decline, usually in the 38.2% to 61.8% range. I’ve been watching for that bounce and I think that has now likely started, though that doesn’t mean we won’t see retests of last week’s lows as part of that process.

So what’s the setup so far?

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