Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Topping Really Is A Process

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In my post on 20th May I was looking at the four high quality topping patterns forming on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM. As is often the case these didn’t deliver and the indices rejected back into higher highs. We are now looking at a new candidate high forming here but for a number of reasons these highs tend to take a while to form. This one does not look ready yet for much more downside unless there is some really bad news today.

I watch the historical stats for each day carefully as they often deliver, and last week and this week have been unusual for two reasons. Firstly every day has had a significant bullish or bearish lean, which is rare, as the majority of trading days in any year lean neutral. Secondly, the historical lean towards a red or green close has delivered every day since the start of last week, and I’m thinking the odds are decent that will continue to be the case into the end of this week.

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Cannabis Approaches Breakout

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The US Cannabis Industry, as represented by the ETF, MSOS, is quietly approaching key resistance to a base breakout

The US Cannabis industry, and in particular, the multi-state operators (MSO) are sneaking toward a key breakout point in the volatile rally that has ensued since the Trump administration put out this executive order in December:

Increasing Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research

Here is the sector ETF, MSOS, contemplating a would-be breakout, as the sector looks toward a potential expansion of rescheduling from Schedule 1 to 3.

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Quantifying Slow-Motion Drawdown

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What the Toronto Condo Cycle Teaches Traders About Asset-Class Liquidity Failure

In the fall of 2017, in a sales office on the ground floor of a half-built Toronto tower, a salaried IT professional signed a pre-construction contract for a one-bedroom unit at $1,200 a square foot. Eight years later, that contract is closing into a softer market where comparable units appraise closer to $900 a square foot, and his lender is willing to fund only the lower number.

He is not a distressed seller. He is not even, technically, a seller. He is a forced holder, and there are tens of thousands like him scheduled to close through the end of 2027. The interesting part for traders is not the loss itself. It is that not all the losses are reported due to the nature of delayed reporting cycles.

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