Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

In The Eye Of The Storm

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In my last post on Wednesday last week I was looking at how far the current rally on equities might get, and at the prospects that peace negotiations with Iran might deliver something positive.

I was skeptical about the prospects for a negotiated peace, and the talks in Islamabad on Saturday were abandoned after a day, as there was never really anything to talk about. The ten points that the US had accepted as a basis for negotiation were maximalist demands from Iran that would in effect have been a humiliating surrender by the US, and the alternative proposals from the US team on Saturday were maximalist demands that asked in effect for a humiliating surrender by Iran. The talks never had any realistic chance of success or even progress on this basis.

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Lazy Bear

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This was the big weekend. It was the time when everyone’s favorite couch-rapist, one Mr. J.D. Vance, was going to enjoy a prominent appearance on the world stage and just put the finishing touches on a peace deal with Iran, since they had, like, totally surrendered and stuff.

I’m not sure if you’ve heard, since Vance’s pedophilic boss mentions it at every turn, but we’ve destroyed Iran’s Navy, their Army, their radar, their communications, their Space Force, and everything else, and besides all that, there’s been like a total regime change and everything.

And, while all this was going on, I simply wanted to enjoy my meal at Lazy Bear with the wife on a very rainy Saturday night.

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After the Smoke

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It is certainly a more pleasant feeling right now, pre-market, examining a sea of very modestly red quotes and preparing for the day instead of bracing myself for one of the biggest rallies in history. Believe it or not, Iran isn’t the only thing affecting the markets, and there is still other data to examine. Two important items came out this morning.

The first is the Core PCE, which, as we are told, is the favorite inflation indicator of the Fed. It continues to clock in at 0.4% per month. Using my array of mathematical calculations, that comes in at 4.8% annually, which seems on the high side.

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Apocalypse Postponed

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In my last post on Monday I gave 10% odds that a deal with Iran was reached by the time that Trump’s deadline expired yesterday evening, and no deal was reached, but Trump nonetheless said that the Iran’s existing ten point point proposal to end the war was a sufficient basis to start to negotiate a deal over the next two weeks, during which time there would be a ceasefire. US equity markets have rallied and oil prices have dropped hard on that news.

Iran’s ten point plan is as follows:

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