Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Wowser Trousers

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“Sell your cleverness and buy bewilderment.”

– Rumi

Like the rest of us, I have many characteristics to my personality, some good, some bad. One of the better ones that I am pleased with is a sense of wonder. I am always open to being astonishing. I am always willing to accept the inexplicable as being possible. I recognize, as Saint-Exupéry did, that what is essential is invisible to the eye.

And, thus, with such lofty wisps, I offer the following chart. Although I say it every day, I’ll repeat – – click it for a bigger version, because I use enormous screens, as I personally think people using mobile devices to look at financial charts are psychotic, or at least masochistic. So here we go:

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US Bond Bubble Or Equity Bubble?

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Based on purely technical reasons, which I’ll explain below, I’d hazard a guess that US bonds are not in a bubble. If anything, equities look more like their bubble is about to burst.

The price on the following monthly charts of US 2-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr bonds is currently trading around their respective regression channel medians, after a lengthy move up over the past year off very oversold lows (around the channel -2 deviation level).

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You’ll Never Catch Me, Copper!

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Much has been made recently about copper’s decline in value. The fabled “Doc Copper” is supposed to be a harbinger of economic direction. I’m not so sure, but I will say that the continuous contract of the metal is fascinating, particularly because it’s one of the very few instances in which a Fibonacci fanline seems to be instructive about key levels of support and resistance.

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Doc Copper

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Most of you have probably heard about how copper is a good leading indicator of how the economy is going. So much so that it is referred to as “Doctor Copper”. As Investopedia puts it:

The term Doctor Copper is market lingo for the base metal that is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. Because of copper’s widespread applications in most sectors of the economy — from homes and factories to electronics and power generation and transmission — demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health. 

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