Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

S&P 500 Index Over-Extended on a Fibonacci Basis

By Strawberry Blonde - 2 months ago (02, Apr 2018 5:25:09 PM)

The following monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) simply shows the monthly closes from its inception.

January’s (2018) close of 2823.81 nearly tagged its long-term 140% trend-based Fibonacci extension level of 2836.

As of 2:03 pm ET today (Monday), its price is currently below its 1.27% Fibonacci extension level of 2625.

Failure to recapture and hold 2625 could see price eventually decline further to 2220 (its 1% Fib extension level), or lower to around 2100, due to a lack of major price consolidation support below its current price until then. (more…)

Twitter Caught in “Fibs”

By Strawberry Blonde - 2 months ago (27, Mar 2018 12:13:45 PM)

Twitter (TWTR) is stuck in between two long-term Fibonacci retracement levels (after nearly tagging and retreating from the 40% Fib) and a downtrending channel, as shown on the following monthly chart.

Momentum had been building since mid-2017, but was capped in mid-February.

It is 29% lower than it was at the close of its first week of its IPO (November 7, 2013), and it has spent more time under water since then, as shown on the weekly chart below.

A drop and hold below 28.00 could see a further decline to 20.00, or lower. Alternatively, a break and hold above 40.00 would be needed to confirm a sustainable price rally.

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HOG-Tied

By Strawberry Blonde - 3 months ago (04, Mar 2018 1:02:37 PM)

Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) may become a casualty of President Trump’s “trade war” policies. In particular, his latest threat to impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% on aluminum has produced a retaliatory threat against the U.S. by Europe on companies such as HOG.

No doubt, this new policy, if pursued by the U.S., would be argued before the WTO and have greater implications on other countries and goods/services. My post of November 12, 2016 made mention of the need for the new Trump administration and Congress to consider a number of factors so as not to, potentially, cause economic imbalances and a catastrophic domino effect on the rest of the world. This is a complicated issue and will bring forth many positions/arguments/considerations and may cause further instability in world equity, currency, financial, bond, and commodity markets until a resolution is reached. (more…)

Where’s the Resistance on the Dow 30 Index?

By Strawberry Blonde - 5 months ago (11, Jan 2018 6:33:19 PM)

Since the December 8, 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the Dow 30 Index has gained around 42.57%, as of 2:00 pm ET today (Thursday). It also crossed above a new all-time high of 25,500, as shown on the two Daily charts below.

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What Does The Analyst Who Called For The 2016-2017 Market Rally Say About 2018?

By ElliottWaveTrader - 5 months ago (02, Jan 2018 4:39:59 PM)

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

As Ecclesiastes notes, “There is nothing new under the sun.” This, too, applies to the stock market.

The average investor trap is the same throughout whatever period you wish to review. Markets become overexuberant, see a correction, sentiment resets, and markets rally on to their next phase of overexuberance. It is really that simple. Yet, we overcomplicate matters by relying on economics and fundamentals, which have proven to be relatively useless at major market turning points.

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The Long View with Projections

By Tim Knight - 6 months ago (25, Nov 2017 7:59:08 PM)

On this quiet holiday weekend, I thought I’d share a couple of very long-term charts (which PLUS users enjoy via SlopeCharts) Here’s the Dow 30 featuring Fibonacci retracements and a projection. As you can see, the projection has been exceeded (see inset); in the normal world, this is called a “failure”, but in the world of charting, it’s a “throwover.”

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Sunday Stroll through Index Park

By Tim Knight - 8 months ago (15, Oct 2017 10:20:10 AM)

Based on what I saw during my visit last night, Disneyland’s newest ride is the Leap Over an Opioid Addict attraction just outside the park. They were all white males around thirty years old or so, sprawled out on the ground. At least it was more engaging than the boring Monsters Inc. ride inside the park itself.

But that’s not why we’re here. It’s a Sunday morning, and I’m out of posts (except for one waiting in the wings for the appropriate afternoon), so I’ll cobble one together. It isn’t easy, though. See, here’s what a normal market looks like:

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