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Here is the long-term corporate bond total return index. Bonds perform well, but they start losing steam in the 2010s as interest rates are suppressed. The Fed slashed rates into 2020, then spiked them. Investors holding corporate bonds lost all profits back to 2016 at the 2022 low.
I have bought January 19 2024 $115 puts on CROX, the maker of sensationally fashionable and tasteful footwear. I am compelled by this well-formed analog with its fast tumble. Good luck!
By this point, even native tribesmen in the deepest reaches of the Amazon rain forest know the chart below and how it got where it is today.
Greetings to my Slope family. Now that we’ve made it to August of this year, the bullish combination of seasonality mixed with the March Fed banking bailout appears to be wearing off. I wanted to take a step back and look at the big picture once again, along with some of my primary positions that I’m holding heading into the end of the summer.
First, let’s take a look at the 10 year crude oil to broader market analog. I think this will be important for both the remainder of this year, but I also believe it will be an important guidepost for what is coming down the pike over the next couple of years. As a reminder, what crude oil did ten years in the past gives us a good echo for what to expect the broader market to do in today’s market. This is not a tick for tick, day by day analog. It also focuses on direction, not magnitude of expected moves.
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