Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Current Trade Follow-Up (by XerxesTraderGF)

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The past three trading days could not have worked out better. There was the perfect rejection of that resistance level of 4160 noted in my last post after being stuck in a very tight range and a great follow through once breaking down through support at 4080. The Friday close at the 3900 handle was equally enthralling. As most here noted, it is always good to be self-aware of your own excitement, because that is when things seem to turn. However, I’m going to lay out the remainder of my trade targets because it is just starting to get good.

I laid out my analog in the past showing the comparison between this market and previous bear markets. I actually added a few more into my analysis to try to be a bit more thorough (specifically 1968, 1981 and 2018). Each chart below notes 5 major inflection points.

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IYR Marches On

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It seems like we’ve been talking about the IYR analog since John Kennedy was in office. This thing moves so damn slowly. The flip side is that if the pattern does complete, the move will likewise be powerful and persistent.

As a reminder, the “analog” actually doesn’t exist anymore, but only because the recent topping pattern is so much better than what took place pre-Covid. The trio of exponential moving averages is definitely behaving itself properly.

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