Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Two Sensational Successes

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We’ve all heard about “the one that got away”; well here are two. I used to talk about these two ideas so frequently that I got embarrassed about it. The rationale for both was the same: an analog. My view was that each of these stocks would ape their behavior between 2006 and 2009. In both cases, this has come sensationally true, and even I am amazed. I confess I didn’t actually partake in these beauties, but I hope a few of you did.

Pier One
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The Vomit Comet

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Years ago, people assumed I was really good in math, because I got mixed up in microcomputers starting in 1979. For some reason, people thought computer geeks were math wizards. I wasn’t. I was a writer, as I am to this day. So metaphors, not math, are more my thing.

A few days ago, one came to mind which struck me as particularly good, so I thought I would share it. So join me on a mental model which I think will help explain the past nine years.

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Financials: You Are Here

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For the entirety of 2018, I have been obsessed with the analog between the present year and a decade ago. This has been unfolding absolutely beautifully, and one of the reasons I love this market (four words I haven’t been able to say in a very long time) is how chart-friendly it is and how magnificently the financial stocks are breaking down. I suspect we have a long, long way to enjoy this calamity.

The analog abides

Frightful Possibilities

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A Santa Claus rally. A trade deal between China and the U.S. A straight shot to 3,200 on the S&P 500. The bullish stories are flooding the airwaves. After all, the vast majority of “traders” and “investors” have never experienced a bear market before. Equities dipped a little in October, and people don’t like it. So they’re trying to wish it away.

Maybe they will. Maybe the won’t. We remain at a crucial juncture. Last week was largely a waste of time. We did get a nice selloff on Monday, but after that, it was a circle jerk, with desperate rumors from D.C. about a trade deal attempting to prop things up.

On the ES, the two tinted areas are all I care about right now. If, God forbid, we cross above the yellow tint at about 2757, the bulls are going to grab the baton. It wouldn’t take much in the way of news to make it happen. Another plausible rumor about China would do the trick, although the way Pence is handling it, maybe I shouldn’t worry so much. A failure of the green line at 2711 would shove a silver stake through the pattern’s heart. (more…)

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