Commodities, led by oil, have been very strong since December 26th (just like equities). We are approaching the 50-day EMA, however, which could be an exhaustion point for this sector.
Soft Commodities
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
Classical Gas
I rarely use Fibonacci Arcs, but on occasion they do some cool things; earlier this quarter, I pointed out the failure on the arc pattern (green tint); pretty interesting to see what took place since then!
Karmic Energy
Something occurred to me a day or two ago – – crude oil, Saudi Arabia’s lifeblood, has been absolutely falling to pieces. I was wondering to myself, when did oil prices peak, and also when was the journalist Jamal Khashoggi brutally murdered and literally chopped into pieces?
I’ll save you the trouble of having to keep two separate dates in mind: the killing and the commencement of collapsing prices happened at pretty much the exact same millisecond. Startling karmic, don’t you think?
The Book of James
What a difference a single month can make. Observe the chart of the natural gas market below. Once it pushed past resistance (pink horizontal line) it went roaring higher, devastating – – notably – – James Cordier and his OptionSellers.com fund, purportedly to the tune of $200 million. And then, equally as fast, all the gains disappeared. It’s as if nothing happened.
DRIP Rip
If you watch my tastytrade show, you’ll recall I had pointed out some powerful formations in the energy bearish funds. DRIP has been absolutely on fire lately:
Oil Strength
I did a “crude oil is gonna go up” post recently, but I wanted to pile on with this Fibonacci arc graph of the continuous contract:
Oil Ready to Rally
Oil fell pretty much nonstop from October 3rd until November 23rd. At that time, I pointed out the magenta horizontal (shown below) as well as the blue descending trendline, each of which I felt would act as support. So far they seem to have done so, and as rapidly as oil fell, the “bounce” could be just as swift (although certainly not with enough power to recover all those losses).
Twenty YEARS of Gains Gone
Pacific Gas & Electric has been hammered by fire liability concerns, and it is priced at the same level it was in 1998. It is down 75%, and this includes adjustments for dividends. But, hey, 1998 wasn’t so bad! The government was running a SURPLUS and we were about $16 trillion less in debt!
Oil’s Long-Term Direction
Down, down, and then down some more.
As for the equities – – let’s strap ourselves in! I am (for me) in RISK OFF position, with 135% committed (when I’m super aggressive, it’s over 300%). It’s going to be quite an evening, everyone.
How Swiftly Sentiment Changes
First of all, gold and silver members should know that an updated post about the coolest and most amazing chart I’ve ever done in my life is awaiting you; by now, you should have received an email bringing that to your attention.
A few weeks ago, in the aftermath of the revelation that Saudi Arabia likes to chop up bodies of journalists who threaten their regime, the “experts” were breathless with price projections.
