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Let me share a personal experience and hope you and I can both learn something from it.
I’m not sure precisely when it began, but this premium post from March 7th is a good place to start. In the post, I make it abundantly clear that the real estate fund IYR is one of my favorite analogs of all time (using such words as “crazy about this analog” and “just ga-ga”). I’m certain this wasn’t my first post about it, but it is at least one where I put a stake very firmly in the ground that I am bonkers about the IYR short.
God damn it. The past two weeks might as well have never happened. We’ve been thrown right back to the levels two Fridays ago, on August 26th. Hey, BEARISH MONTH SEPTEMBER, when are you going to do your job?
In a period measured in hours, not days, the Dow has roared quadruple points higher and the /ES has tacked on nearly 200 points. The reason? Nothing to do with anything fundamental. It’s the same old “everyone is bearish” logic, coupled with the US dollar dropping in value after a long run-up.
When times are good, I lament that my virtual portfolio isn’t real. When times are bad – – or, like now, absolutely horrendous – – I am relieved it is just a bit of fiction. Here we see my “Balls to the Wall” loss of nearly half a trillion dollars. That is Bezos-level of cash!