And here we go again. Even though Washington has said repeatedly that it will not accept a “partial” trade deal, equities have roared higher since China has said they would be open to a partial trade deal. I’ve lost count how many times we’ve gone through this charade. Now, listen, I understand Washington could agree to a partial deal, since their words don’t mean crap. But, still, if we take them at their word, why would China’s “capitulation” mean anything? In any case, the algos love it:(more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Mercifully, there are only nine days left, from what I can tell, before this ridiculous flypaper of a market we’re stuck on can get let loose. By the end of next weekend (that is, October 13th), there should be some kind of meaningful news – – be it a deal, a divorce, or a never-ending pledge to talk about Real Soon Now – – that will let the markets roam for a bit. In the meanwhile, the ES is getting swatted at like a cat’s toy:(more…)
To my way of thinking, one proxy for the whole China/US trade deal (or no deal) is the agricultural products fund, symbol DBA. It isn’t particularly heavily-traded, and it’s been in a steady grind-down for years.(more…)
Yesterday evening, I was pissed and irked to see the ES rip higher based on the announcement that the Vice Premier of China would be heading to Washington. Turns out I got all worked up over nothing. The area I’ve tinted shows the spike, which the market has wisely concluded is beyond all measure of unimportant. I’m seriously not sure what these algos are thinking.(more…)
Over the weekend, in the This is War post, Binkius wrote this important bit:
Rumors from the Trump White House say that the USA is thinking about cancelling trade talks and sanctions if the CCP attacks Hong Kong. This is one of the few brilliant things coming out of the White House. If the trade talks are dead anyways, playing the moral high ground gives Trump some deflection of criticism because he’s defending democracy in Hong Kong.
I would keep that in mind in the days ahead. For the moment, concerns about just such a thing are pushing some red onto the screen:(more…)
Well, this is what happens when you think that any kind of war is easy to win and you attack without any kind of plan. Raging dumpster fire.
Trump was hoping to scam China like one of his subcontractors but didn’t realize that China has the second largest economy (largest by some esoteric economic measures) and enough nuclear weapons to ensure MAD. Instead of backing down like a subcontractor facing bankruptcy and ruin, China said “bring it” and here we are.(more…)