Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Tienanmen Two

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Over the weekend, in the This is War post, Binkius wrote this important bit:

Rumors from the Trump White House say that the USA is thinking about cancelling trade talks and sanctions if the CCP attacks Hong Kong. This is one of the few brilliant things coming out of the White House. If the trade talks are dead anyways, playing the moral high ground gives Trump some deflection of criticism because he’s defending democracy in Hong Kong.

I would keep that in mind in the days ahead. For the moment, concerns about just such a thing are pushing some red onto the screen:

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This is War (by Binkius Hippo)

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Well, this is what happens when you think that any kind of war is easy to win and you attack without any kind of plan. Raging dumpster fire.

Trump was hoping to scam China like one of his subcontractors but didn’t realize that China has the second largest economy (largest by some esoteric economic measures) and enough nuclear weapons to ensure MAD. Instead of backing down like a subcontractor facing bankruptcy and ruin, China said “bring it” and here we are.

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Market Battle Fatigue: China Versus USA

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There have been numerous reports of an economic slowdown (and even contraction in some sectors) in China, one of which describes those in detail at ZeroHedge. While some of China’s difficulties may have been exacerbated by a fairly recent trade war with the U.S., it certainly didn’t start them…other factors were already in play and bear responsibility for its inception, as explained therein.

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Monday Musings (Binkius Hippo)

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I found an interesting article that has similar experiences similar to mine. Chinese stuff produced by quasi-SOE companies are incredibly cheap. Here, with telecom, 30-40% cheaper than the competition. Even with a 25% tariff, this stuff would still be cheaper than ANY of the competition. Your goal when you undercut your competition by 30-40% isn’t profit.

Trump will fold when the SP500 reaches 2000-2200 technical levels. At that point instead of seashells, Trump is going to take whatever the Chinese offer him. The Chinese know the game of face much better than Trump. They’ll give him two cold egg rolls and an egg-foo-young to be named later – targeted to make Trump’s base happy. In exchange, the CCP will get what they want: 1) IC and IP and 2) use Trump as a scapegoat for any economic problems in China.

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