Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Market Battle Fatigue: China Versus USA

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There have been numerous reports of an economic slowdown (and even contraction in some sectors) in China, one of which describes those in detail at ZeroHedge. While some of China’s difficulties may have been exacerbated by a fairly recent trade war with the U.S., it certainly didn’t start them…other factors were already in play and bear responsibility for its inception, as explained therein.

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Monday Musings (Binkius Hippo)

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I found an interesting article that has similar experiences similar to mine. Chinese stuff produced by quasi-SOE companies are incredibly cheap. Here, with telecom, 30-40% cheaper than the competition. Even with a 25% tariff, this stuff would still be cheaper than ANY of the competition. Your goal when you undercut your competition by 30-40% isn’t profit.

Trump will fold when the SP500 reaches 2000-2200 technical levels. At that point instead of seashells, Trump is going to take whatever the Chinese offer him. The Chinese know the game of face much better than Trump. They’ll give him two cold egg rolls and an egg-foo-young to be named later – targeted to make Trump’s base happy. In exchange, the CCP will get what they want: 1) IC and IP and 2) use Trump as a scapegoat for any economic problems in China.

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Trade Update (by Binkius Hippo)

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The amazing thing is that neither Trump nor the American people know what they want from the trade war. China knows exactly what it wants and needs.

Trump seems to want “even” trade with China. Both countries export/import the exact same amount from each other.

The American people want jobs. Trump’s “even” trade goal won’t help that. Reduction in Chinese imports will be filled completely by new trade with: Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand. It will all be more expensive to the American consumer than trade with China because Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand are all more expensive than China (but vastly and by American standards, incomprehensibly cheaper than any American manufacturing).

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