Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

China’s Shanghai Index & Yuan At Potential Inflection Points

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My post of October 11 mentioned that China’s Shanghai Index broke below a major monthly swing low level of 2638.30 and that it could be headed for its next major support level at 2260, or lower.

Since then, price has fluctuated in both directions and has been attempting to stabilize, but remains just below that former swing low…a potential major inflection point.

Overlayed on all of the following three charts of the USD/CNY forex pair is the Shanghai Index (shown in pink). After price peaked in January of this year, it began an 1,140 point decline, in divergence with a rally in the USD/CNY. (more…)

World Market Headwinds Escalate

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INTRODUCTION

In my Market Forecast for 2018, I thought that, taking into consideration the uncertainty of the 2018 U.S. midterm elections, coupled with likely interest rate hikes, we’d probably see:

  • volatility rise in 2018 and the SPX and other U.S. Major Indices gain only about half of what they gained in 2017, which would mean an approximate increase of 10% for the SPX
  • that Technology would remain fairly strong, while Small-Caps would likely struggle more than Big-Caps
  • that U.S. markets would continue to outperform other World markets (with the performance of their financials playing an important part)

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EWY South Korea ETF, Proxy for Global Tech, Probing Key Support

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Many Street analysts consider the iShares South Korea ETF (EWY) as a proxy for the health of global technology, the semiconductor sector, the chip sector, and perhaps the retail electronics sector as well.

One look at my weekly chart of EWY shows that it has been in the grasp of a major correction or possibly even bear phase since its January all-time high at 79.07 into Tuesday’s low at 56.34, a near 30% decline.  This decline has retraced two-thirds of of the entire prior advance from the August 2015 low at 42.94 to the January 2018 high at 79.07. One could think that the ugly EWY performance reflected deteriorating relations with North Korea, but, ironically, relations have not been so promising since 1950! (more…)

Yanking the Wax Away

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I know almost nothing about politics in Brazil. I had heard, however, there was a Presidential election on Sunday (that is, yesterday), and the “Donald Trump of Brazil” was rising in the polls. Well, he won, and Brazil equities exploded higher this morning. Examining the Fibonacci retracements, I noticed that we were trading near a possible reversal point, so I shorted the symbol EWZ at 39.37 with a stop at 39.50. It’s up about 1.43% as of this moment. This was definitely a “sell into strength” type moment, because Brazil’s problems are probably bigger than their version of Trump can solve.

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Crazy Not-So-Rich Asians

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Near where I live, there’s a middling Chinese restaurant called Chef Chu’s. I’ve been to Chinese restaurants hundreds of times, but in spite of its proximity, I’ve gone to Chu’s maybe once. It’s the kind of place where white people eat and struggle with how to use chopsticks. Unless the menu is rife with misspellings and I’m the only white boy in there, I’m not that interested, because I know the food will be overpriced and inauthentic.

The reason I bring this up is because the little boy who grew up at that restaurant, John Chu, went on to become a famous director by way of the smash hit Crazy Rich Asians. It’s the kind of cultural marker which turns my stomach, because it’s a movie that gawks and gasps and gyrates over the insane wealth of a small slice of Singapore elite.

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