Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Reading the Tea Leaves

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Before I begin, I wanted to mention (again) a very handy feature in the comments section which I introduced years ago: the Ignore button. I get emails from time to time from folks who have no interest in the political chit-chat on the site, or they find certain individuals to be tedious, vexing, or annoying.

This is NOT a hard problem to solve. Just click on the Ignore button (it looks like a “stop!” hand) and, voila, your troubles are over. That person is no longer part of your life.

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Where the Nuts Come From

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Once again (so far at least), we got out usual schtick from the market: green prices all over the place for absolutely no good reason, and then a reversal. It’ll be nice if it actually manages to drive lower again. I miss those days.

While we are waiting, I wanted to point out again my fondness for Brazil as a short, by way of the symbol EWZ. Here’s the pattern with its Fibonacci retracements:

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Inside their Minds

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There was a time I thought pretty much all my readers were from the United States. Out of fear of offshore hacking, I blocked a ton of countries and quickly found out how many loyal readers I have in places I could never have imagined. It seems just about every landmass with civilization has Slopers on it. Indeed, looking at my Twitter followers (which is a pretty good proxy for the site in general), you can see how they are spread far and wide.

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Another View of China (by Binkius Hippo)

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Chinese Communist dynasty emperor Xi knows they’ve blown the biggest bubble in the history of humankind. All measures being taken by Communists are to ensure the survival of the party when this bubble eventually pops. Dynastic succession in China usually involves the losers’ entrails being paraded around Tiananmen square (or other significant public gathering place), so this is about survival. Politics, economics and ideology are secondary.

The Communist dynasty knows that the bubble will pop and they will lose the mandate of heaven (economic prosperity). The only way they can stay in power is if the blame can be diverted. Trump is heaven’s gift to the Communist dynasty. EVERYTHING can be blamed on Trump. The Communist dynasty will play the nationalism card – having been attacked by Trump. The Chinese will rally around this. Trade was forced on China (Most Favored Nation was a punitive trade measure against China by the western powers) and now Trump is going back against trade treaties designed to humiliate China since the Boxer Rebellion. (more…)

Emerging Averages

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I suspect the market is going to be in a state of “arrested development” today and tomorrow, since everyone and his brother is waiting for the stupid G20 to finish and some kind of announcement (or lack thereof) to be made.

In the meanwhile, let’s take a look at the emerging markets ETF, which has been steadfastly bearish all year long. I’ve circled in red where the respective crossunders took place with the exponential moving averages (50/100/200) and have tinted each “lower high”. This downtrend will remain intact as long as no “higher high” takes place.

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China’s Shanghai Index & Yuan At Potential Inflection Points

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My post of October 11 mentioned that China’s Shanghai Index broke below a major monthly swing low level of 2638.30 and that it could be headed for its next major support level at 2260, or lower.

Since then, price has fluctuated in both directions and has been attempting to stabilize, but remains just below that former swing low…a potential major inflection point.

Overlayed on all of the following three charts of the USD/CNY forex pair is the Shanghai Index (shown in pink). After price peaked in January of this year, it began an 1,140 point decline, in divergence with a rally in the USD/CNY. (more…)

World Market Headwinds Escalate

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INTRODUCTION

In my Market Forecast for 2018, I thought that, taking into consideration the uncertainty of the 2018 U.S. midterm elections, coupled with likely interest rate hikes, we’d probably see:

  • volatility rise in 2018 and the SPX and other U.S. Major Indices gain only about half of what they gained in 2017, which would mean an approximate increase of 10% for the SPX
  • that Technology would remain fairly strong, while Small-Caps would likely struggle more than Big-Caps
  • that U.S. markets would continue to outperform other World markets (with the performance of their financials playing an important part)

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EWY South Korea ETF, Proxy for Global Tech, Probing Key Support

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Many Street analysts consider the iShares South Korea ETF (EWY) as a proxy for the health of global technology, the semiconductor sector, the chip sector, and perhaps the retail electronics sector as well.

One look at my weekly chart of EWY shows that it has been in the grasp of a major correction or possibly even bear phase since its January all-time high at 79.07 into Tuesday’s low at 56.34, a near 30% decline.  This decline has retraced two-thirds of of the entire prior advance from the August 2015 low at 42.94 to the January 2018 high at 79.07. One could think that the ugly EWY performance reflected deteriorating relations with North Korea, but, ironically, relations have not been so promising since 1950! (more…)

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