Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Two Mighty Runs

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Hello, Slopers, and remember today is a shortened trading day, with equities closing three hours before the normal time.

My “Big Short” for 2018 remains bonds. The bond market has, since May 18th, had a powerful push higher, but as I so often write, it’s all about context. The multi-decade uptrend has decisively broken, and my view is that this bounce is nothing more than a push back toward resistance.

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Oil & Gold vs. Oil & Gold Volatility Indices

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Chart #1 is a monthly chart of WTIC Crude Oil (in the upper half) and the CL:OVX ratio (depicted in histogram format in the lower half).

As I’ve noted recently, the major price resistance and support levels are 80.00 and 60.00, respectively.

Corresponding to those are the major ratio resistance and support levels of 3.00 and 2.00, respectively. In this regard, it will be important for the ratio to remain above 2.00 and the ratio 5 MA to remain above the 8 MA to confirm an upward bias on Oil on this timeframe. (more…)

Stocks vs. Commodities: Will Traders Dump All?

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Looking back at a longer-term monthly view of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) compared with GOLD (GC) (blue bars) and WTIC Crude Oil (CL) (pink bars), we saw a broad correlation among these regarding rallies and pullbacks…until 2011 when the bounce in GC and CL stalled and, ultimately, sank in mid-2014, especially CL when it plunged to (just below) post-financial crisis levels in January of 2016.

As I write this post at 11:50am ET on Friday, we see that, while the SPX is just below all-time highs, GC faces major resistance at 1350, and CL is swirling around 65.00 (major resistance/support). (more…)

Big Picture Update on Commodities & Precious Metals

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Note: I’d like to thank Slope readers and especially Slope’s distinguished proprietor for the opportunity to post for you tales of Amigos, Horsemen, mania, greed, arrogance, stupidity, fear, terror and all the macro nerd stuff within my view of markets. Happy New Year SoH –Gary

Some monthly charts of interest in the commodity sector, including precious metals.

CRB Index dwells below key resistance. A break of 200 would target around 250 in 2018.

crb

CRB/SPX Ratio shows the utter devastation of the Goldilocks era of Central Bank inflation with no apparent consequences. This is not likely to last. (more…)