Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

What Does Dr. Copper Signal For Global Markets?

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The following monthly chart of Copper shows that price is hovering above the apex of a very large long-term triangle.

Since early 2018, it hasn’t been able to break out above the upper edge of this triangle, confirming the weakness that we’ve been seeing in global markets, to date. My last article summarizes this weakness in a nutshell.

I’ve shown the Rate-of-Change (ROC) and Average True Range (ATR) indicators in histogram format with an input value of one period. I’d watch for a series of larger spikes on each to signal, either serious and sustained buying, or a plunge to further lows (as another gauge to track global market strength/weakness). Otherwise, continued smaller spikes would accompany more range-bound, tepid trading in Copper, as well as global markets, in general.

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You’ll Never Catch Me, Copper!

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Much has been made recently about copper’s decline in value. The fabled “Doc Copper” is supposed to be a harbinger of economic direction. I’m not so sure, but I will say that the continuous contract of the metal is fascinating, particularly because it’s one of the very few instances in which a Fibonacci fanline seems to be instructive about key levels of support and resistance.

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Timber!

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Rev can talk about something other than gold? Yes, yes he can… When’s the last time you looked at lumber prices and their implications on interest rates? There’s a correlation? Yes, there is.

First, let’s take a long term look at lumber prices. Below is a ten year chart of lumber prices. From their early 2009 bottom at 137.9, lumber prices rose steadily, but not dramatically for the next few years. However, after their 2015 bottom, lumber would start a three year rise that would culminate in their 2018 blowoff top at 648.5.

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Black and Gold

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It’s going to be a strange two weeks ahead. On the one hand, portions of it are going to be like watching paint dry, as market participants cling to the sidelines, afraid to make any kind of commitment ahead of binary events. On the other, when those events take place (or not), all holy hell will break lose. What is it they say about battle? “Long periods of boredom punctuated by brief moments of terror.” Something like that.

As of this writing, gold is continuing to slip lower. The only options position I have at the moment is GDX puts, so that’s fine by me. I’d say medium-term support is around 1325.

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