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I’ve suggested on multiple occasions that the relatively obscure agricultural fund, symbol DBA, is a proxy of the China Trade Talks optimism or pessimism. Since it seems prospects aren’t exactly great, we’re selling off on the ags, even though equities don’t’seem to care at all.
To my way of thinking, one proxy for the whole China/US trade deal (or no deal) is the agricultural products fund, symbol DBA. It isn’t particularly heavily-traded, and it’s been in a steady grind-down for years.
Commodities have been strong for weeks now, but the price gap (marked in red) represents, to my eyes, an important point of resistance.
Ya know, there’s only so much one can say about an equity market which has been caught in a range for a freakin’ solid month (“Welp, it’s not the top; oh, look, it’s near the bottom; whoopsie, near the top again!“) It’s a bore. So a little change of pace: commodities.
Here are a smattering of charts with a few words about each in the caption area:
(more…)The following monthly chart of Copper shows that price is hovering above the apex of a very large long-term triangle.
Since early 2018, it hasn’t been able to break out above the upper edge of this triangle, confirming the weakness that we’ve been seeing in global markets, to date. My last article summarizes this weakness in a nutshell.
I’ve shown the Rate-of-Change (ROC) and Average True Range (ATR) indicators in histogram format with an input value of one period. I’d watch for a series of larger spikes on each to signal, either serious and sustained buying, or a plunge to further lows (as another gauge to track global market strength/weakness). Otherwise, continued smaller spikes would accompany more range-bound, tepid trading in Copper, as well as global markets, in general.
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