Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.


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I normally like posts to acquire about 100 comments before I do a new one, but – – well, I admit, it was a mistake doing a new post in the middle of the night. Still, do check it out if you didn’t read it already. It’s about SlopeRules (naturally).

Recently I’ve been mentioning the “breaking point” the handful of earth’s bears have been reaching. Yesterday morning took the cake, because one of the very few people I follow on Twitter, xTrends, did a post in which he seemed to completely throw his “world is going to end” thesis into the shredder. He actually said the most likely scenario was new lifetime highs again. A reaction to his tweet was similar to mine:


Hey, MO!

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Altria Group – – cynically renamed to conceal their actual identity as a manufacturer of cancer-causing tobacco products – – has been a short I’ve recommended (along with fellow creator-of-human-misery PM) for quite some time. Its head and shoulders pattern is absolutely massive, and, believe it or not, my target price is $32 – – basically a financial catastrophe. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys, either.


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I am absolutely THRILLED about how today went. Let me recount my day for you, to set the stage:

  • As you know, a few days ago, I slipped off my well-worn bear suit and went bullish;
  • Therefore, I had gone long GUSH (triple-bullish on energy companies), FAS (triple-bullish on financials) and very, very short on bonds (by way of a TLT short and long TLT puts).
  • Today’s opening absolutely sucked for me. My short bond position created a 0.5% loss in my overall portfolio. I dumped it at a loss.
  • I vacillated quite a lot about shorting today. I covered my 4 shorts. Then I entered a few more. Then I finally just threw my hands up and covered everything and re-shorted a huge TLT position.
  • I also did some day trading in SPY (profitably).

Two Sensational Successes

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We’ve all heard about “the one that got away”; well here are two. I used to talk about these two ideas so frequently that I got embarrassed about it. The rationale for both was the same: an analog. My view was that each of these stocks would ape their behavior between 2006 and 2009. In both cases, this has come sensationally true, and even I am amazed. I confess I didn’t actually partake in these beauties, but I hope a few of you did.

Pier One


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The world has been rewarding cynics like myself lately.

I thought the North Korean peace deal that everyone was hailing – – and suggesting Trump be given the Nobel Peace Prize – – would amount to nothing. We’re well on our way there. It’s a complete zero.

I believed the fakery of the past nine years would end in tears and catastrophe. We are on page 7 of a 500 page novel of that catastrophe. This is just the beginning.

And, much shorter term, I offered up the following prediction at the beginning of this month in this post.

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