Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Their Job: Entertain. Your Job: Ignore.

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Agree 100%, Charlie.

See: Buy in May and Stay Invested

Now, I am not of that ilk personally. My closely held biases are that a) the market’s cycles can be interpreted and managed (although my bias also has led me astray at times, in my execution) and b) that the economy, and by extension the markets, are not normal; not your grandpa’s economy and markets because they are ginned and steroidally goosed by off-the-charts (i.e. experimental) central bank meddling. That’s my bias in line with my entire history of public writing since 2004.

So I am not a stock market apologist, bull wise guy or ‘buy ‘n hold stocks for the long’ run tout. But I am the guy who is frequently nonplussed about the mainstream media fanning the flames of investor/trader sentiment during inflammatory news cycles. As Charlie says “it is their job to entertain” and “your job to ignore”.

But this applies not only in the major media. It applies to the minor media as well. Led by ZeroHedge, a whole raft of blogs and other entities are going to fan your flames with all sorts of opinionated, agenda driven or just plain biased information. And what Charlie has right is that it is absolutely imperative to tune it the hell out. That is because the bias never changes because it is promoting emotional viewpoints, promoting sides, teams. In the market the only side is the right side, whether your little heart of hearts agrees with it or not. (more…)

Here Is Next Week’s News In Advance

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Here Is Next Week’s News In Advance — How Will You Trade It?

By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

The great majority of market participants believe that “the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics.”  So, if I share with you “secret” news that will hit the wires next week, you should be able to make a killing with such information.  Right?

While I strongly disagree with this proposition, at least based upon my in-depth study of decades of stock market history, this perspective is so engrained in the investment process of advisors and analysts alike that it is followed even more than the Bible.

So, let’s test this proposition. (more…)

Facebook: Too Big To Fail? Too Big to Regulate?

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We’ll see how Congress grapples with those issues, and others, when they grill Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg when he testifies before them this Tuesday and Wednesday.

Facebook faces similar scrutiny by other countries over the coming weeks, so their issues are global and not likely to be resolved overnight.

Source: Investing.com

(more…)

Media Leaders and Laggards

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You can see, at a glance (monthly charts below of FOXACMCSA and TWX), which media giants are leading or lagging each other overall…they are all at or below their respective major resistance levels.

The only one whose momentum indicator is above zero on this long-term timeframe is FOXA…if it plunges and falls below zero, no doubt the others will weaken further.

On the flip side, if FOXA breaks and holds above its prior swing high of 39.27, the others may gather strength, as well. (more…)

Experts as Contrary Indicators (Bonds Edition)

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I want togross2 begin this post by again noting publicly that feel like I clowned myself yesterday in my own trading and in my lack of attention to the market at a critical point (couldn’t really be helped, but it’s the results that matter). Despite a market doing generally as expected, I was not really prepared. My macro views often prove right on while my own execution can shall we say, vary. It’s why I tell NFTRH subscribers or anyone considering the service it is best to follow the analysis, not what some faulty trader is doing at any given time.

The reason for the paragraph above is balance for the paragraphs below, in which we drive home once again the folly of listening to experts (at least the experts the media shove in your face at ill-timed junctures). I had a subscriber leave NFTRH in mid-2016 (he’s back and we’ve had a friendly review of that situation) in part because I was doggedly bearish gold and bullish the Semiconductors, which was exactly opposite to the stance of a technology expert, whose service he also subscribed to. It made me sad (for both of us) to have stuck to my convictions, but lost a subscriber while turning out to be right in my view. (more…)