Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
(Note from Tim; NFTRH was kind enough to post this, and I accidentally published a snippet of the article early today; here, in all its glory, is the complete article):
The Continuum (the systematic downtrend in long-term Treasury yields) has for decades given the Fed the green light on inflation. Sometimes it runs hot (as per the red arrows) and sometimes it runs cold. One year ago people were confused about why a declining stock market was not influencing Fed chief Powell to reverse his relatively hawkish tone.
The Continuum (the systematic downtrend in long-term Treasury yields)
has for decades given the Fed the green light on inflation. Sometimes
it runs hot (as per the red arrows) and sometimes it runs cold. One year
ago people were confused about why a declining stock market was not
influencing Fed chief Powell to reverse his relatively hawkish tone.
The orange arrow shows exactly why, per this post that will be one year old today.
Global central banks have been pumping the liquidity spigots 24/7 and
the US Fed is starting to go that way as well. This during a time of
supposed economic splendor and fruitfulness (it is these contradictions
that are the windows into a ginned up, leveraged economy dependent on
monetary policy) while the S&P 500 breaks through the bull turnstile
to blue sky.
This morning in pre-market the Amigos’ futures charts update the macro story…
…which goes something like this…
They call copper the metal with the Ph.D. in Economics. But these
days Doctor Copper is little more than a quack in that regard, taking a
cue from the metals whose interplay will be critical to deciding the
coming macro for 2020 and the run up to the next US election. Thus, they
are the 3 Metallic Amigos, riding together but providing different signals at different times (this being nftrh.com, you will have to put up with the odd shtick from time to time).
Let’s take a look at some indicators that can come together to let us know when the next inflationary bout is in the offing.
The spread between 10yr and 2yr yields (the most commonly watched
yield spread/curve) is still steepening on the short-term. Live chart
The interplay between gold and silver is a critical component to
understanding what is out ahead; to understanding whether long-term
Treasury yields will rise and if they rise, whether it will be due to
inflationary pressures. It is a critical component to understanding
whether cyclical commodities and other aspects of a greater
inflation/reflation trade will finally break existing downtrends. See…