Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

EXCLUSIVE: Details of OptionSellers Trades

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My post about the ruination of got a huge amount of attention. Traffic to was bigger on Sunday than any normal day of the week (which explains why it’s been so damned hard to get on the site lately…….). The most common question I heard was: “what exactly were the positions?” I had no idea………until now.

According to my sources, here are the positions they had on: naked short calls (left side) and naked short puts (right side), all on natural gas:


One Fund’s Instant Destruction

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This is a cautionary tale. A tale of a fund of nearly 300 clients and nearly $80 million which blew up in the span of hours from a market move that was, in the grand scheme of things, not that big a deal. It illustrates how excessive leverage can completely torch the risk-taker (and, in this case, his clients). And it just happened.

The person in question is James Cordier, who is a bestselling author of books about options. One glance at Amazon, and you can see the myriad of volumes he’s written on the topic:


Looking Ahead to December OpEx (by Moneymiser21)

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Reminder from Tim: For some heavy-duty options backtesting, remember Slope readers get a hefty discount from CMLViz – – check it out.

Now that we have both the midterm elections and November’s monthly options expiration (OpEx) behind us, let’s look forward to potential higher probability setups as we head into Thanksgiving and the Holiday shopping season.

We’ll be using Dutch rules (as in Market Sniper), looking for a minimum of a 70% probability of success.

A few clear trends emerged from the lookback during the past ten years (i.e. when options trading began to take off en mass).

NOTE: These are not trade recommendations, consult a blah blah blah… risk disclaimer … Federal rules nonsense… don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose (now THAT is important).

Got it? Ok here we go: (more…)

The Option Trade in Apple That is Working

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We can ride the evergreen patterns, and we have, for years. But when the market shifts, we need a minimum amount of data to adjust, and succeed — now we will. This is our time with Apple.

It’s time to take advantage of volatility. Fear, uncertainty, doubt, unclear news headlines — these are all trade-able events, at anytime, without concern for earnings. Today we look at exactly what has worked for Apple (AAPL).

Take well bounded risk, small, and direction-less, and let a tweet, a news headline, an Apple headline, a day of pessimism or a day of optimism, whatever — move the market, as it has so often in this new volatility regime.


TradeMachine Laboratory

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I’ve been having a ball experimenting with CML’s TradeMachine Pro, which is an extraordinary tool for finding options ideas and doing backtesting. We have a special deal running with CML (click here to learn about it and watch a video about the product). Here’s a simple example – – it’s fascinating to see the sort of mayhem (and then eerie calm) leading up to and following the financial crisis.


Short-Term Bear Glory, Long-Term Bull Run? (by Moneymiser21)

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What a week for #TeamBears!

The Fed’s rate hike cycle finally broke the backs of small caps, as illustrated by BOTH the (#1) break and close below of the Summer low (which is also prior swing pivot) on the daily and weekly RUT charts, and (#2) the break of the up channel formed since Summer 2017.

Our beloved bear leader Tim Knight made massive profits, and Slope traffic rose validating his tremendous efforts to improve the website. (more…)

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