Here in my hometown of Palo Alto, the fervor about real estate is definitely gone. A couple of years ago, it was absolutely manic (see chart below, which you can see yourself in SlopeCharts with the symbol $PALO). Chinese buyers were paying all cash. Facebook and Google employees were trying to outbid each other on single family homes. And lucky ducks like me who bought in 1991 had to smirk at how the values kept lurching ever-higher. Not anymore.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
The Bite of Bond Bears
My bearish-on-bonds disposition has remain unaltered all year, .and recent activity is pushing us toward what could be an important next step.
After the Fall
There’s something I’ve noticed on Slope that I find perplexing, a little troubling, and ever-so-slightly amusing. Whenever I write anything that seems to be a prediction, some people get their feathers quite ruffled. Indeed, it seems to kind of piss them off, and they pound their virtual fists on the virtual table and declare that no one can predict anything, and that it’s an arrogant waste of time to even attempt it.
I’m in the business of prediction. Principally, I use historical price charts to try my best to suggest what the future holds. That sort of thing doesn’t seem to bother folks. On the contrary, it’s kept Slope popular, to varying degrees, for nearly fourteen years.
However, when I make, shall we say, textual predictions, some people object. I guess all I can say to that group is………you might as well stop reading the post now, because I wanted to offer up a few speculations about what’s ahead. I am by no means a futurist or an expert in societal trends. By far my biggest “this is what’s coming” success was the 1983 book I wrote, which I’ve mentioned here before, called The World Connection, which predicted our online world with Nostradamus-like accuracy. (more…)
Systemic Risk Lurking in the U.S. Housing Market?
The U.S. Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is in bear market territory…down 24.68% from its peak on January 24 of this year.
On a year-to-date percentages gained/lost basis, it has drastically underperformed the 9 U.S. Major Sectors, as shown on the graph below.
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| Year-to-date % Gained/Lost graph of 9 U.S. Major Sectors + Homebuilders |
Homies & Real Estate: Does This Look Healthy?
[edit] As if on cue, out comes Anthony B. Sanders with… US Housing Starts Plunge Under Rising Interest Rates
I agree with you, this does not look healthy.
Checking in on CBL & Associates
I doubt any other chart has received so much “short this because of the analog” attention as CBL & Associates. So far, so good………..what a wreck!
Brandywine and Roses
I was bracing myself for horror and terror this morning. Ummm, not yet. Out of 70 positions, want to know how many were stopped out?
Two.
Anyway, here’s one of the survivors that it absolutely dynamite: my Brandywine Realty short.
La Dolce Vita
While thumbing through the paper (which has become a munificent source for anecdotes lately), I saw this advertisement. The image is a bit odd because this is a scan of a newspaper, so you can see some of the very exciting specials from the Willows Market advertisement on the other side of the same page. Still, you can make it out pretty clearly:
Minimal Misery
Alan Greenspan, Benjamin Bernanke, and Janet Yellen must be laughing their wrinkly assess off, now that goy-boy Jerome Powell has been stuck holding the biggest stinking bag in the history of the universe. What a schmuck. And he seems like a pretty decent guy! Shame.
Anyway, in spite of this completely fake, phony, fraudulent bull market of the past nine years, I’m still a believer in the cyclic nature of – – well – – everything – – and while the politicians and media celebrate record lows in the misery index (shown below, thanks to SlopeCharts), it should strike abject terror into the heart of thinking people………..like yourself.
Sector Focus: Real Estate
Preface to all sector posts: This weekend I’m organizing charts in a different way. I’ve picked from my existing portfolio of live short positions and have grouped favorite shorts in specific sectors. Here are the selections for this group, and hopefully the markups will speak for themselves.
