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Last year, it looked like interest rates were going to start a sensational bull market of their own. It’s quite clear they’ve utterly sputtered. Just look at what’s happened with interest rates: a nice bullish base, and then, zilch.
It’s been a while since I’ve written a Crazy Palo Alto Real Estate post. However, I just saw an ad in our little local paper that compelled me to take keyboard in hand and offer you the latest tidbit from my fair city.
I present to you the following house: it’s a pleasant place, about 3,000 square feet and on a 2/3rds of an acre lot. In many parts of the country, that’s a postage stamp, but in Palo Alto, it’s “park-like.” Take a moment to drink in this property. As I say, pleasant enough, but not exactly spectacular.
Up 0.25. Down 0.25 Unchanged. Yeah, not exactly a riveting day on the ES, is it?
Anyway, here are three interesting ETFs for the one or two bears left who think that homebuilders may be ready to take a U-Turn.
One ETF which shows the unwavering power of the recent up-move is the triple-bullish-on-real-estate symbol DRN, shown below. The “lower highs” remain intact, although it’s getting dangerously closely.
Note from Tim: I realize today’s an all-green day, but I wanted to share this post from SB in any event, since the big picture hasn’t changed.
Further to my post of December 17, the percentage of S&P Real Estate stocks above their 200-day moving average has dropped below 50% to 37.5% (as of Friday’s close), as shown on the following graphic. At 50% on that date, it was the “last man standing,” apart from Utilities.
I guess I should be pleased? You may recognize this as my ZIP code, particularly since it appears in the address for any and all Christmas gifts that are waiting to be shipped.
Here in my hometown of Palo Alto, the fervor about real estate is definitely gone. A couple of years ago, it was absolutely manic (see chart below, which you can see yourself in SlopeCharts with the symbol $PALO). Chinese buyers were paying all cash. Facebook and Google employees were trying to outbid each other on single family homes. And lucky ducks like me who bought in 1991 had to smirk at how the values kept lurching ever-higher. Not anymore.
