Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Control Is An Illusion

By -

The pundits and the media were debating for several weeks leading up to the last Fed meeting about what the Fed was going to do and the effect they thought it would have on the market.  And, it amazes that the great majority of the market does not realize how much of a waste of time these debates really are. 

But, as I often note, many market participants and analysts are simply not burdened by the facts.  If they really would review the facts of market history, they would learn that there is no one that can control the market.  PERIOD.

(more…)

US Bond Bubble Or Equity Bubble?

By -

Based on purely technical reasons, which I’ll explain below, I’d hazard a guess that US bonds are not in a bubble. If anything, equities look more like their bubble is about to burst.

The price on the following monthly charts of US 2-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr bonds is currently trading around their respective regression channel medians, after a lengthy move up over the past year off very oversold lows (around the channel -2 deviation level).

(more…)

Not-So-Great Expectations

By -

I was terribly interested in this article posted over at ZeroHedge, which described at some length that, as obsessed as the media is with the inverted yield curve, there was actually a far more effective “predictor” of future economic ups and downs in the form of the “forward” 3 month rate.

I’ve done some digging, and I haven’t found it in SlopeCharts, but I did stumbled upon an interesting 5 year version of this, which effectively predicts forthcoming inflation rates. As you can plainly see, it went into an absolute free-fall during the 2008 financial crisis (symbol is FR:T5YIFR)

(more…)

High Yield Corporate Bonds: Breakout Or Breakdown?

By -

The High Yield Corporate Bonds ETF (HYG) is at an interesting juncture.

There are, potentially, two uptrend lines that one could apply to form a large long-term triangle pattern on the following monthly chart. In turn, two possible triangles and two apexes emerge.

Price has been bouncing in between both apexes (and upper edge of this triangle) since February of this year. Attempts to fully break out and move higher have failed repeatedly since then.

(more…)
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!