Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Based on purely technical reasons, which I’ll explain below, I’d hazard a guess that US bonds are not in a bubble. If anything, equities look more like their bubble is about to burst.
The price on the following monthly charts of US 2-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr bonds is currently trading around their respective regression channel medians, after a lengthy move up over the past year off very oversold lows (around the channel -2 deviation level).
I was terribly interested in this article posted over at ZeroHedge, which described at some length that, as obsessed as the media is with the inverted yield curve, there was actually a far more effective “predictor” of future economic ups and downs in the form of the “forward” 3 month rate.
I’ve done some digging, and I haven’t found it in SlopeCharts, but I did stumbled upon an interesting 5 year version of this, which effectively predicts forthcoming inflation rates. As you can plainly see, it went into an absolute free-fall during the 2008 financial crisis (symbol is FR:T5YIFR)
Amazing isn’t it? It was only back in H2 2018 when everybody but you
(because you are as smart as I think you are or because you read NFTRH or nftrh.com) and me was unbelievably bearish about the TREASURY BOND BEAR MARKET!!!
Today… not so much. The herd is absolutely pile driving bonds right now.
Have you heard the news? US Treasury bonds are sky rocketing as it
turns out there is no inflation amid a global central bank NIRP-a-thon
and race to the currency bottom. Going the other way, our 30yr Treasury
yield Continuum is burrowing southward.
If you check out yesterday’s post you’ll see proof that the 2018 NFTRH view that people should tune out the bond experts instructing BOND BEAR MARKET!! was 100% on target.