I have a watch list called Rates (note to Gold and Platinum members: you can access this at any time with the Shared Watchlists feature in SlopeCharts and see all my lists as well as my mark-ups), and this list contains a variety of very weird-looking ticker symbols that represent important interest rates. Here are a couple of them I thought were worth sharing. First is this chart of Treasury Rates. Take a look at how artificially suppressed they became, and they have “snapped back” to the underside of that now-broken basing pattern. It’s pretty cool how prices are interacting with at pattern (which I haven’t touched in months).(more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Bonds are getting hit very hard on this first trading day of the year. This is pretty much as low as TLT can go without breaking its intermediate-term uptrend. For ten months, this line has held fast, but given today’s move, interest rates are ripping higher (which lines up with the general idea that the Fed is going to be cranking rates for years to come).(more…)
It has strengthened a bit since I took this screenshot, but I wanted to point out that bonds, by way of the TLT fund, have closed their price gap and look poised to rally (as counter-intuitive as that may seem in a world of ostensibly rising interest rates):(more…)
While most of us are adjusting to the current economic climate, a Federal government saving initiative is growing traction in recent days. To our surprise, the United States Series I Bonds are considered a major leap forward for inflation-secured investments. While the government is throwing its weight behind it, analysts have suggested those looking to save up for their pensions do so too.
Retirees and young investors are now considering the remarkable returns they can receive from Series I Bonds. With 7.12% interest, these bonds mature for up to 30 years, and can be easily redeemed after the first 12 months. An attractive option many are now considering after the recent jump of inflation.
Yet, so many of us have disregarded these bonds, and of the $21 trillion invested in federal bonds, only $46 billion are made up of Series I Bonds.(more…)
The two important headlines I saw today both came from Our Dear Leader Powell. In his testimony today, Chairman Powell declared that “It is time to retire the word transitory regarding inflation”, and “the threat of persistently higher inflation has grown.” Finally, he added that the Fed “can consider wrapping up the taper a few months sooner.”
The fact that inflation is here is no shock to the average American, but to hear it come out of the Fed Chairman’s mouth was a bit shocking today. Also, the idea of speeding up the taper has not been priced into markets. I believe soon we’ll be hearing Chairman Powell begin to broach the topic of raising interest rates sooner than expected as well.
So, what does this mean for markets going forward, and are we at a key turning point? If the Fed is now moving to a stance of acknowledging a persistent inflation problem, logic would dictate that a policy response would follow.(more…)