Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Surging Rates

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Take a look at the chart of TBT below, which is the ultrashort ETF based on bonds. It clear shows how interest rates are heating right back up again, thanks to Powells limp-wristed, politically motivated kowtowing to the White House and his feeble efforts to tiptoe around the surging inflation around us (which is closer than 20% than the laughable 3.5% he claims it up be).

A New MICE (by LZ)

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Note from Tim: I've written about my so-called M.I.C.E. chart (Most Important Chart Ever) a number of times, including this post from the summer of 2018 for premium members which preceded a 10% tumble in the S&P. The MICE chart endeavors to blend interest rate and equity data into something that is more insightful than either of them on their own; anyway, LZ has something new for us as follows):

I tried something a little different with MICE: multiplying by the 10yr yield. Bonds are going down in price as yields rise. At some point, they must be the better buy, and the market tops. I don’t know that the¬†level matters for predictive purposes, but the spikes since 2000 have all been proximate to tops.¬†

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The Wisdom of the Bonds

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“Bonds aren’t buying it.” You hear that sometimes, since the bonds markets have historically been considered substantially wiser and more forward-looking than equity markets, and there are instances when bonds are saying one thing and stocks the other. That’s going on now, with bonds weakening (which flies in the face of the narrative that interest rates will be dropping and thus propelling stocks higher). The net change since early December has been just about zero, which should scare stocks.

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