Some of you probably do not know that Slope has an outstanding yield curve tool right here on the website, and everyone is at liberty to use it. By way of example here’s what the yield curve looks like in a nice, healthy economy:(more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Bond Bear has Teeth
Now THIS is what I call a bear market. That is, the US Bonds (represented below by way of the /ZB futures contract). This sucker is about to celebrate its third birthday. Can you IMAGINE the wailing and whining and screeching from the David Portnoys, Tom Lees, and Cathie D. Woods of the world if we had a three year long equity bear market that wiped out more than half its peak value? My God, that would be so delicious.(more…)
I just came up with this new chart with the symbol $US10Y-$US2Y, which shows how insanely inverted rates are (and how laughable it is that Biden is saying there will be no recession, no way, no how).
Never More Inverted
But I’m sure everything will be just fine.(more…)
Bonds have had a staggering recovery over the past couple of months, as rapidly-ascending interest rates stopped in their tracks and started retreating. As I look at interest-sensitive charts, however, I have to wonder if the world of bonds is going to start a new leg down. Here is EMB (emerging markets bonds):(more…)