My bond obsession continues, and with good reason. We’ve just had our latest breach. And remember, next week is a big FOMC announcement, so that should shake things up. The important fact is that we’re now beneath a support level that has been in place for months.
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Well, it was another one of those weekends where we were treated to all manner of market scares (“Trump is going to announce tariffs on $200 billion more of goods!”………..”China is going to walk away from trade talks!”………..”Oh noes!”) and yet, here we are just before the open on Monday morning, and the ES has collapsed all of 1/10th of a single percentage point. I can’t say I’m surprised.
One market that continues to behave As God Intended ™ is the bonds, whose pattern I’ve been following all year long. The head and shoulders pattern on it is glorious, and it seems to me that interest rates are simply going to continue stomping higher (which will do wonders for a planet buried in countless trillions of dollars in debt). The recent failure of this pattern (magenta tint) is, to my mind, the most significant market event to take place in years (the crypto revolution notwithstanding which, let’s face it, has enriched all of our lives beyond measure).
Once again, after a tiny, tiny dip in the market, everybody’s talking about a push higher. S&P 3000 is offered as a foregone conclusion. Indeed, even to this poor old bear, I can see an argument to be made for a bounce at current levels:
The number “42” had resonance in the financial world a month ago when Elon “I think I’ll ruin one of the world’s greatest reputations” Musk declared that Tesla was going private at $420. Multiple lawsuits and one SEC investigation later, such chatter has of course vanished. Four Two Zero is moot.
For me, the far more important figure is ONE Four Two. Specifically, the support level of bonds (How’s that for a segue?) Break it, and the world is our oyster.
There are two things I’d like you to check out:
- The video tutorials page. It’s super-gorgeous now, and the videos are new. I am very proud of it, and I am positive you will learn a lot about SlopeCharts. For those not using my chart platform for some reason, I encourage you to give it a try.
- The new guide to Memberships, which explains the various levels of membership and the features therein. I promise to only mention this page fifty thousand additional times during the year.
As for the markets, there obviously isn’t a heck of a lot to say on a holiday, but there was some GLOBEX trading to watch. I am fixated on bonds, as is always the case, and there’s an important prospective breakdown looming at the red line shown below. The big “event” this week is the jobs report before the market opens on Friday, so perhaps by the end of the week we will have busted this line.
Surprise, surprise. Everything is green this morning. New lifetime high on S&P 500. New lifetime high on NASDAQ. Every day except weekends, guaranteed.
The one exception is bonds. Here is what has been going on this year……..
The only red on my screen this morning (and it’s down only the tiniest bit) is bonds. This is a market I watch terribly closely, because as I’ve said through most of 2018, the core shift I’m looking for is an increase in interest rates and an accompanying decrease in real estate valuations. Through the course of the year, the now-broken trendline has done an effective job of repelling prices (arrows). At the moment, my fondest hope is that prices don’t either bother getting back to the trendline and instead turn away from that green tinted area.
As I tweeted out last night, I spent the entire weekend putting the finishing touches on my latest book, and I am tremendously proud of it. I will be telling you about it (and how to get it) here on Slope a little later this month.
Regarding the markets this morning, I was a little surprised to see (as of this writing, because there are both very close to unchanged) that NQ had flipped green and ES’s low was very small, whereas they had both been down hard when I went to bed last night. It’s not upsetting, though, because, frankly, huge Monday morning selloffs have always been greeted by ruinous government intervention. I’d much rather things be calm. It looks like a good opening for me in any case.
Even more important, my portfolio is quite interest-rate sensitive, and the weaker bonds can be, the better. We’re definitely doing good things in that respect:
I am quite short right now (267% of buying power used) across 74 positions, and there are a handful of others I plan to enter as well. This should be a very interesting week indeed!