If you click it, you get this little beauty:(more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Contributed by Hedge Fund Tips: In the past 30 years, we have had 7 instances of sequential S&P operating earnings drops of 6% or greater (data table below highlights sequential drops in yellow/red). In each case, it was not a positive – and a stock market correction reflected the downturn in economic activity.
There is a KEY distinction when referring to sequential operating earnings declines:
In 5 out of the 7 times, the sequential drop was limited to 1 quarter (SEE Blue Vertical Lines Above) – meaning the following quarter came in above the previous quarter where there was a precipitous operating earnings drop of more than 6% sequentially.(more…)
U.S. 2, 5, 10 and 30-year Bonds have been driving through prior resistance and inching upwards since the end of 2018, as shown on the following monthly charts.
Meanwhile, the following monthly SPX:VIX ratio chart shows that price has stalled just below the 200 “New Bull Market” level.(more…)
While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues…(more…)
A ‘wild card’ segment has been added to NFTRH reports because I wanted the freedom to go out of bounds in any direction, beyond our usual areas of disciplined coverage. Last week it was a look at the Semiconductor sector.
This week it is Fed policy with a side trip down memory lane, trying once again to illustrate why today is not at all like the ZIRP era and why the post-2015 re-connect between the Fed Funds rate and the stock market does not bode well for stocks, assuming the Fed really is going soft.
Excerpted from tomorrow’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, which will also include loads of actionable analysis along with the more theoretical stuff below…(more…)
Below are the Opening Notes and Bond Market segments from last Sunday’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 530. Jerome Powell was actually more firm than I expected. Atta boy Jay! Aside from my prognostication the more important stuff (IMO) begins at the 4th paragraph. That is where I put on my tin foil hat and tell what I think. It does seem to dovetail with what we saw today out of the Fed chief.
Opening Notes: FOMC at Center Stage
It is likely that the Fed is going to raise the Funds rate on Wednesday because this is a confidence game and a Fed suddenly showing weakness and doubt could exacerbate the market’s already frayed nerves. As a side note the 76% reading of CME futures traders expecting the hike to happen has not changed in the last few weeks.(more…)
Well, it’s green on the ES and NQ for yet another day, but at least it’s not by much. Let us instead turn our attention to bonds, which I continue to contend are in trouble. Here’s the long-term continuous chart, featuring the channel failure:(more…)