My “triad” of strategy: bullish bonds, bullish gold, bearish equities, is my three-legged stool for 2020. I am pleased to see bonds (by way of TLT) with a bullish island reversal pattern this morning, after some fake-out weakness last Friday.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
There are two things I turned bullish on when the year began: gold and bonds. Both of these are based on long-term patterns. Short-term, of course, I watch them quite closely anyway.
Bonds, by way of the /ZB futures, have been slowly (very slowly!) strengthening in recent days.(more…)
I got an interesting email from a Sloper (who has given me permission to share his charts). He pointed out that looking at interest rates over the long term had cracked their descending trendline.(more…)
And there go the treasuries………(more…)
As if the equity bulls needed any more help, bonds, by way of TLT, is making its way toward what would be a fairly important support failure.(more…)
The pundits and the media were debating for several weeks leading up to the last Fed meeting about what the Fed was going to do and the effect they thought it would have on the market. And, it amazes that the great majority of the market does not realize how much of a waste of time these debates really are.
But, as I often note, many market participants and analysts are simply not burdened by the facts. If they really would review the facts of market history, they would learn that there is no one that can control the market. PERIOD.(more…)
Based on purely technical reasons, which I’ll explain below, I’d hazard a guess that US bonds are not in a bubble. If anything, equities look more like their bubble is about to burst.
The price on the following monthly charts of US 2-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr bonds is currently trading around their respective regression channel medians, after a lengthy move up over the past year off very oversold lows (around the channel -2 deviation level).(more…)