Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Are You Still Fearful of Cryptos?
By Ryan Wilday, ElliottWaveTrader
Since leaving my job as a corporate design manager to analyze and trade cryptos (among other things), I’ve gained new attention from old colleagues. In circles of my former profession, I’m the guy that retired to trade for a living. While my departure from corporate life was something I planned for many years, cryptos certainly gave those plans a shot in the arm.
Regardless of how it came about, my early ‘retirement’ carries some lore; ‘He must have made millions on Bitcoin’ I’m sure some say. (more…)
My last post on Bitcoin made reference to a bearish engulfing candle that had formed on the daily timeframe.
Since then, its price drifted slightly upwards, then plunged and closed below the low of that candle on Friday, as shown on the following daily chart.
The momentum and rate-of-change indicators did not confirm the recent higher price high, but are both in an accelerating diverging downtrend, and are below their zero levels.
As we all know…….
Here’s where he’s at, with about two and a half years left:
I noticed the strangest thing – – if you look at the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, they are virtually in lockstep.
The following monthly chart of the US Dollar (DX) contains three Andrew’s Pitchfork channels. The channel median apex for the two largest ones (pink and blue) sits at 90.00 and forms major channel support.
Price has been swirling around 90.00 since mid-January of this year. Recently, the DX has found support at the bottom of the smallest channel (green), which begins in March 2008. The momentum indicator has made a lower swing low, so it remains in downtrend on this timeframe and is still below the zero level, but has recently hooked upward.
As you know, I don’t trade cryptos, but I find the charts of the big ones fascinating. Having risen about 30% since its last recent low, Bitcoin is at a bit of a “moment of truth”, since it is up against a key trendline, anchored to its nearly $20,000 high.
As shown on the daily chart below, Bitcoin has recently broken above several types of resistance, namely a downtrending Andrew’s Pitchfork channel, and two downtrend lines.
There are two potential scenarios for Bitcoin relative to the pitchfork channel:
- price spikes up to its 200% Fibonacci outer edge, which is currently around the 10000 level, or
- price drops back down to its 100% Fib channel edge, which is currently around 4000.
Keep an eye on the momentum indicator. It’s in the process of forming a higher swing high, hinting of further strength ahead, but we’d need to see a series of higher price swing highs and lows to suggest that its downtrend has reversed with any conviction. Otherwise, it may head towards 4000. (more…)