Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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A Key US Dollar Fundamental

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The following is the Currencies segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 546. The fate of the US dollar will of course play into a global macro trade per Friday’s post.


A reminder that we are not using the standard gold bug method of evaluating the USD (perma “death to the dollar!!”). We are using fundamentals in evaluating its potential to correct (and launch a global macro trade). The blue shaded boxes on this weekly chart tell the story of Fed policy (Fed Funds/3 mo. T-Bill) that significantly lagged the upturn in the 2yr yield into late 2015. But USD turned up much earlier (in 2014) to follow the 2yr.



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I honestly have zilch and zip to say about stocks right now. Wednesday was a nothing day, and the laughable news that the U.S. is going to give China until 2025 to comply with any kind of trade “deal” is apparently a non-event (the ES and NQ are actually both slightly up as I am typing this). So let me just say a word or two about a couple of crypto charts, since those are in the news.

Bitcoin Cash has been on a crazy tear, but I’d like to point out the descending trendline. It might wind up in two or three weeks for another run to smash through it, but at the moment it seems plausible to me BCH will have some sellers taking profits at these levels.

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