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Well, folks, just ten trading days to go this year. I’m in a constant conversation with myself about how much risk to take. I’ve got a good profit. Do I just go to all-cash and guarantee it, thus avoiding the traitorous and self-serving actions of the clearly-cowardly Jerome Powell, or do I boldly try to enhance the profits until the bitter end? Dunno. The market isn’t exactly screaming “bull-party” at the moment. 2620 was the key, and last night’s attempt at a rally flopped before it even got there.
In all likelihood, I’ll remain relatively aggressive up to the Fed meeting. If Powell slips on a pink taffeta dress and runs shrieking in terror from having his feels hurt by a Trump tweet, then I’ll probably just shut ‘er down for the year. Wednesday is the pivot point. It’s going to be exciting.
I have been flopped on my hotel room bed, looking at hundreds of charts (what else would one do on a hotel bed?) I’m pretty excited about the week ahead. Let’s face it, Jerome Powell’s message on Wednesday is probably going to be the Last Big Event of 2018.
I’ve got a lot of great positions, but the biggest fish are the ones that got away. Here are some charts whose bearishness I trumpeted many times, but, frankly, I didn’t engage with. Maybe I lacked the patience, the testicular fortitude, or something else. They’re still fascinating to me:
Don’t let my Herculean physique fool you. I’ve never been an athlete. Not even once. In fact, I don’t even like perspiration. The only exercise I get is swimming, and that’s because I don’t have to deal with sweat, which I find sort of ewwww. So, yeah, I’m a man’s man.
My beloved children, however, are all top-notch fencers, and they tour internationally. We travel as a family, the gallant Knights and their swords, which on occasions like this pulls me somewhat away from my normal prolific nature.
I don’t watch television, but I heard an interview with Howie Mandel (on Gilbert, of course) about the revival of his Deal or No Deal show. I say, good for Howie, because he’s really reinvented himself and is a success later in life. But this isn’t about Howie………it’s about a contestant who was on a few days ago. Just watch this.
You’d expect me to be beating my chest and howling at the gods above, but nope. Indeed, I used used a command on my brokerage software I’ve never used in my entire life – – I wasn’t even sure it existed – – “Cancel All Open Orders”. I’m going into the day with not a single stop, which is unprecedented for me. I want the initial dust to clear before I make any decisions.
For those who missed my last 300 posts, I’m very light right now. I am 100% guaranteed to lose money when the bell opens. I am 99% guaranteed to be down when the closing bell rings. But even though the bulls are celebrating the enormous greennumbers on the screen (one-dimensional thinking), the chart of the ES (two-dimensional thinking) don’t exactly paint this as a New Era for our hoofed friends: