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Well, folks, just ten trading days to go this year. I’m in a constant conversation with myself about how much risk to take. I’ve got a good profit. Do I just go to all-cash and guarantee it, thus avoiding the traitorous and self-serving actions of the clearly-cowardly Jerome Powell, or do I boldly try to enhance the profits until the bitter end? Dunno. The market isn’t exactly screaming “bull-party” at the moment. 2620 was the key, and last night’s attempt at a rally flopped before it even got there.
In all likelihood, I’ll remain relatively aggressive up to the Fed meeting. If Powell slips on a pink taffeta dress and runs shrieking in terror from having his feels hurt by a Trump tweet, then I’ll probably just shut ‘er down for the year. Wednesday is the pivot point. It’s going to be exciting.
I have been flopped on my hotel room bed, looking at hundreds of charts (what else would one do on a hotel bed?) I’m pretty excited about the week ahead. Let’s face it, Jerome Powell’s message on Wednesday is probably going to be the Last Big Event of 2018.
I’ve got a lot of great positions, but the biggest fish are the ones that got away. Here are some charts whose bearishness I trumpeted many times, but, frankly, I didn’t engage with. Maybe I lacked the patience, the testicular fortitude, or something else. They’re still fascinating to me:
Don’t let my Herculean physique fool you. I’ve never been an athlete. Not even once. In fact, I don’t even like perspiration. The only exercise I get is swimming, and that’s because I don’t have to deal with sweat, which I find sort of ewwww. So, yeah, I’m a man’s man.
My beloved children, however, are all top-notch fencers, and they tour internationally. We travel as a family, the gallant Knights and their swords, which on occasions like this pulls me somewhat away from my normal prolific nature.
I don’t watch television, but I heard an interview with Howie Mandel (on Gilbert, of course) about the revival of his Deal or No Deal show. I say, good for Howie, because he’s really reinvented himself and is a success later in life. But this isn’t about Howie………it’s about a contestant who was on a few days ago. Just watch this.
You’d expect me to be beating my chest and howling at the gods above, but nope. Indeed, I used used a command on my brokerage software I’ve never used in my entire life – – I wasn’t even sure it existed – – “Cancel All Open Orders”. I’m going into the day with not a single stop, which is unprecedented for me. I want the initial dust to clear before I make any decisions.
For those who missed my last 300 posts, I’m very light right now. I am 100% guaranteed to lose money when the bell opens. I am 99% guaranteed to be down when the closing bell rings. But even though the bulls are celebrating the enormous greennumbers on the screen (one-dimensional thinking), the chart of the ES (two-dimensional thinking) don’t exactly paint this as a New Era for our hoofed friends:
This is a cautionary tale. A tale of a fund of nearly 300 clients and nearly $80 million which blew up in the span of hours from a market move that was, in the grand scheme of things, not that big a deal. It illustrates how excessive leverage can completely torch the risk-taker (and, in this case, his clients). And it just happened.
The person in question is James Cordier, who is a bestselling author of books about options. One glance at Amazon, and you can see the myriad of volumes he’s written on the topic:
A Santa Claus rally. A trade deal between China and the U.S. A straight shot to 3,200 on the S&P 500. The bullish stories are flooding the airwaves. After all, the vast majority of “traders” and “investors” have never experienced a bear market before. Equities dipped a little in October, and people don’t like it. So they’re trying to wish it away.
Maybe they will. Maybe the won’t. We remain at a crucial juncture. Last week was largely a waste of time. We did get a nice selloff on Monday, but after that, it was a circle jerk, with desperate rumors from D.C. about a trade deal attempting to prop things up.
On the ES, the two tinted areas are all I care about right now. If, God forbid, we cross above the yellow tint at about 2757, the bulls are going to grab the baton. It wouldn’t take much in the way of news to make it happen. Another plausible rumor about China would do the trick, although the way Pence is handling it, maybe I shouldn’t worry so much. A failure of the green line at 2711 would shove a silver stake through the pattern’s heart. (more…)
There’s something I’ve noticed on Slope that I find perplexing, a little troubling, and ever-so-slightly amusing. Whenever I write anything that seems to be a prediction, some people get their feathers quite ruffled. Indeed, it seems to kind of piss them off, and they pound their virtual fists on the virtual table and declare that no one can predict anything, and that it’s an arrogant waste of time to even attempt it.
I’m in the business of prediction. Principally, I use historical price charts to try my best to suggest what the future holds. That sort of thing doesn’t seem to bother folks. On the contrary, it’s kept Slope popular, to varying degrees, for nearly fourteen years.
However, when I make, shall we say, textual predictions, some people object. I guess all I can say to that group is………you might as well stop reading the post now, because I wanted to offer up a few speculations about what’s ahead. I am by no means a futurist or an expert in societal trends. By far my biggest “this is what’s coming” success was the 1983 book I wrote, which I’ve mentioned here before, called The World Connection, which predicted our online world with Nostradamus-like accuracy. (more…)