Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Energy Ease-Out

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A bit of a portfolio update:

  • I’ve eased out of most of my energy positions because, as the chart below illustrates, the XOP is battered down pretty hard right now. Every one threw off terrific profits. so thank you!
  • I have retained only two energy shorts: COP and CPE – – not because they seem particularly resistant to a bounce. But I don’t want ZERO energy, and these suckers have many, many months left on them, so I’m keeping ’em. And anyway, they’re showing +70% gains, and would that be any way to treat a friend?
  • My cash is up to 30% at this point, as I remain cautious in the face of bullish shenanigans.

Completely Repulsive

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Good Lord, people. What a bunch of limp-wristed, antique-shopping, pronoun-swapping, hair-dressing ninnies you are. All you running around, screeching, wringing your hands, and talking nonsense like QQQ going to 320. Good GOD. Embarrassing. Why not hang out on the /stocks board in reddit with that kind of nonsense? Or maybe sign up for the French infantry?

In any case, the Fibonaccis asked the bulls to stand, legs astride, and kicked them directly into the nuts.


Portfolio Update

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Well, here’s my whirlwind update on what’s happening:

  • My anticipation of a bounce was obviously correct. The real question, as I posited in the last post, is whether it’s going to be a quick relief pop or a sustained, multi-week bear-killer.
  • Because I’m a complete wimp when it comes to bullishness, I took profits on my August DIA calls and my large long DIA position. I am “pure bear” again.
  • Having said that, I would hasten to add that I am a VERY CONSERVATIVE bear right now, with a nearly-unprecedented cash level of 60%. In other words, any push higher in the market will be met with only 40% of my typical whining and complaining.
  • My 2022 profit stands at 63%, and I believe right down to my marrow that the best opportunities for this bear market are still in front of us.

Boring Beyond Belief

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Well, it was a fairly frantic first hour, but I’ve got myself repositioned way, way, way more conservatively.

  • Down to only 20 bearish positions with average expiration 140 days in the future (!!!) This is 50% of my entire portfolio;
  • One long position – IWM August $160 calls; this is 10% of my portfolio;
  • Cash – 40% (!!!!!!!!!!) of my portfolio

So, Powell, you turd-sucking scumbag, do your worst. I’m ready for this base to break out.

FOMC Game Plan

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This is a selfish and a selfless post. It is selfish in the respect that I’m hoping to glean some wisdom from the crowd. It is selfless since it’s a decent amount of work to construct this properly, with the hope that some folks might benefit from the problem and its potential solutions.

Let me start with the situation and my assumptions:

  1. I have a substantial portfolio which consists of only cash and 30 bearish equity positions, by way of being long puts that expire no earlier than September and, on most cases, expire much later than that.
  2. I have 20% of my portfolio in cash. The portfolio overall is sporting a 57% profit so far this year.
  3. Over the past few weeks, I saw about 90% of my profits for the year go up in smoke, only to be restored over the course of the past few days (please note: it was not a good feeling, and I’d rather not go there again);
  4. My overarching assumption is that stocks will be MUCH lower at some point this year (prior to October) and, counter-trend rallies be damned, virtually all these puts will be worth much more later, even with time decay.