I’m going to take a brief Slope recess and really look at what happened today. What a surprise we’ve had. I’d like to sort my thoughts out and probably make a video once I’m done. See ya soon.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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We’ve all heard the legend. Tim Knight gets on a plane, and the market weakens. I’ve heard it. You’ve heard it. Some algos probably trade off of it.
Now that SlopeCharts has its Events Markers , we can actually eyeball it. Even better, since I plan to input forthcoming travel dates, paying members can actually anticipate them with precision. Here’s the past year of (very rare) travel seems to suggest…………
From time to time, a question will appear in the comments section which is worthy of a response in a post. Havoc left just such a comment (I’ve boldfaced some of it for emphasis):
Questions…. I’ve been watching you trade for about 15 years, and you have made adjustments to your method over that time. Your style has similarities and differences to my own, and I’m curious as to how you honestly feel about the long-dated options-only method. I still am very impressed with your strategy of holding dozens of individual short positions (while I only short the SPX in a couple of ways). You have convinced me of the benefit in a crashing market of the added time it takes to exit all those positions, for example. How do you value the price of the options in your spreadsheet, is it the midpoint of the bid/ask? When you decide to enter, or exit a position, are you entering limit orders to prevent bad fills within these wide spreads? Most importantly, in what ways have you found this style to be better than being actually short the individual stock? I’ve actually started building a portfolio of options that expire in 1/24, and am finding peace of mind with it.
This is going to be one of those longish, therapeutic posts which is as much for me as it is you.
In spite of all my griping about screwing up trades, and leaving tons of money on the table, and the Atilla cell in my spreadsheet, etc., etc., I actually wound up Thursday with the highest portfolio value ever. I had stars in my eyes about securing a triple-digit percentage gain for the first half of the year. I was 100% bearishly invested and ready to rock.
Friday changed all that. I went from a swaggering, super-confident bear to a quivering, timid, 54%-in-cash nimrod. The vast majority of my profits are still intact, but let’s just say I’ve totally dispatched with my triple-digits dream, except inasmuch as for the year 2022 as a whole. Friday was, in fact, one of the worst trading days for me in the entire year, and as I’ve mentioned, just about the ONLY thing I did right with this “all thumbs” week I just had was sucking out a mountain of cash from my brokerage account a week ago so I didn’t hurt myself even worse than I did! So, yeah, a cash withdrawal was my most resplendent victory. Pretty sad.(more…)
It wasn’t at all a bad day. My combination of a long hedge and a lot of cash served me well. Several hours into the trading day, I tweeted this thought:(more…)