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To open this topic, I’ll begin with something I heard Bill Cosby say back in 1983 when I watched him on his comedy special (this was Bill Cosby before – – – you know – – all the other stuff, back when I knew him merely as the fun guy who made Fat Albert and the Cosby Kids).
If you could see inside my brain a few days ago, you knew this day was coming. I was actually toying with just giving up and buying dogshit like KLAR, only because it seemed the market was never, ever, ever going to go down again.
And then Friday happened…………
Normally, on a Friday, I will spend the afternoon creating videos and posts for the weekend. Once the trading day is over, I have a few hours to crank out a ton of content – – usually a dozen posts or more – – so that I have a chance of actually not working too much over the weekend itself.
Creating it all in advance gives me a chance to relax.
Not so this time. In spite of having a ton to talk about what is suddenly a very interesting market, I had planned to drive us up to the mountains for the weekend. Thus, I have absolutely zero content for you right now on this beautiful Saturday morning, and I am duty-bound to start creating it. I’ll start with writing about an incident on the way up here.
(more…)That look like about a ’77 Ford to you, Wendell?
It could be.
I’d say it is. Not a doubt in my mind.
The old boy shot by the highway?
Yes, sir. His vehicle.
Man killed Lamar’s deputy, took his car, killed that man on the highway, swapped for his car, now here it is and he’s swapped again for God knows what.
That’s very linear, sheriff.
Age’ll flatten a man, Wendell.
Yes, sir.
I suppose I could have realized this much earlier, but it took tastytrade’s YouTube channel for it to hit me. Looking out at the world from these eyes and spending precious little time in front of any mirrors, I have spent my adult life assuming I looked more or less like this.
(more…)Considering the exceptionally expensive IPOs coming at us, such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, I was curious as to historical examples of hotly anticipated IPOs and their correlation with market tops.
The clearest historical examples are these:
This is probably the strongest example. Palm’s carve-out IPO from 3Com priced at $38 on March 2, 2000, opened at $150, traded as high as $165, and closed at $95.06 on its first day — a 150% first-day gain. Within the same month, the stock had already fallen more than 50% from its first-day close.
The mania was extreme enough that Palm’s first-day valuation created the famous “Palm–3Com stub” anomaly: Palm traded so richly that, arithmetically, the rest of 3Com was being valued at a large negative amount. Chicago Booth describes this as an extreme case of mispricing.
(more…)
