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I think I’ve been doing quite a good job sidestepping politics, as I pledged to do months ago. This post is not a departure from that. Don’t let the title fool you. This is a thought exercise and not an attack on the guy.
There are a gazillion possibilities about what’s going to happen on November 3rd and, far more important, November 4th forward. I’d like us to consider one possibility and what it might mean for the market. And I want to stress again, since I know a few of you are just bonkers about the guy, this isn’t a dig on the current POTUS but is an attempt at an objective mental exercise.
Having laid out sufficient preambles, I’ll offer this possibility: let’s say Trump loses and loses bad enough that he doesn’t really fight it. Let’s just say it’s quite evident that it’s time to hang it up, and he’s a one-termer.
Note from Tim: I was absolutely thrilled to get word from Scott a few days ago that he was returning to Slope! He has generously proposed contributing articles, which is terrific. During a rare international trip last August, Scott and I made arrangements to meet one another, but unfortunately we never connected. In any case, welcome back to the baddest bad-ass out there!
For those of you too young to remember me, allow me to re-introduce myself.
I offer you greetings, once again, from the empty, eerie parking garage of the Stanford Shopping Center. Once the bustling destination for vapid trophy wives and desperately insecure men, this shrine to consumerism has been unsullied by human feet for half a year, except those of myself and the inhuman feet of my dog pack.
As many decades as I’ve been doing this charting nonsense, I still marvel at the simple beauty of things such as role reversal. Support becomes resistance. Resistance becomes support. See see that here with the /RTY, which gave the horizontal line which I drew long ago the kind of respect it deserves.
Wait, Tim, what? 2024? Are you kidding? Yeah, I’d like to say something about it.
2020 feels just like 2016. Two lousy candidates that no one really wants to vote for. Any “passion” about voting for one person is simply a vote AGAINST the other person. This occurred to me when I was sitting near a guy at an outdoor table going on at great length to his friends about how they should vote for Trump, even though they all hated him, because if he loses then they will lose their guns, their God, their jobs, and their freedom of speech. So voting seems based more out of fear than love.
The irony to this whole thing is that whoever wins is going to get The Crappiest Job In the World. Do you honestly think they can keep this simulation of prosperity going for four more years? Do you? Hell, they’re having to pull out all the stops and tell lies left, right, and sideways just to attempt to keep the plates spinning in the air for just a few more weeks.
These days, it’s nice to be offered a question to which there is an objective answer.
“What’s the temperature going to be like today?“
“It’ll be cool. You can wear long sleeves.”
Simple. Unless I’m addressing a person with some really weird medical issues or a bizarre desire to be very hot or very cold, I can rely on the fact that, let’s say, I know there’s going to be a high of 67 degrees today, and I can offer an answer which is helpful and accurate.