We began the Amigos theme last year in order to be guided by the goofy riders during the ending stages of a cyclical, risk-on phase that was not going to end until the proper macro signals come about, no matter how many times the bears declared victory along the way. The fact that grown adults see conspiracies around every corner (okay, I see them around every third corner myself, but work with me here) makes such macro signaling very necessary in order to keep bias at bay.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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I think it’s only natural after a decline like Oct 10-11, 2018 for people to ask themselves a variety of questions. “Is the bottom in or not?” “Should I buy now or is it going to roll over again?” and “If it is going to roll over, how far does price bounce before rolling over?”
The question I’m asking today is, “After a decline that coincides with a $VXV:$VIX ratio under .90, how long does it take for a retracement to be put in and price to start rolling over?”
Based on the conclusions of my previous post, the likelihood of another test of the lows in approximately two months time appears to be high, even after a retested low has been put established. On the path to two months from now, however, we still have to navigate a market day to day. The paths after the ratio low signal triggered varied so much, it’s hard to really come up with anything consistent and even if there was a pretty clear repeated path, I wouldn’t want to suggest that there weren’t other paths that price could take, even a path that’s never been taken before because anything can happen. In most cases, the final peak before a decline to at least the first low if not a lower low (or bear trap) took 4-6 weeks to be reached. In the near-term, however, they all had an initial peak relatively quickly which provided a boundary for a chop zone (trading in a range). This is what I want to explore. (more…)
I was debating with myself whether to send this post only to my Gold and Diamond members (whose numbers are now legion………..) or to the entire mass of Slopers. I was compelled to just throw open the kimono, since even at this moment the last post has hundreds of comments, and since this is the last post of the day, I don’t want you poor souls to have 500 comments on a post………..so – – even though our awesome Premium members keep this place open – – I’m going to just do a general distribution on this one.
I also want to thank those of you who are pests. I mean that in the most loving way possible. Some folks write me and ask me for THIS and ask me for THAT. But, see, I really like making products, and I like making them better, so I really appreciate when you folks tap me on the shoulder and ask me for something, because I’m the sort who will get kind of obsessed with finding whatever it is you’re asking for. It makes Slope better for everyone. So – – be a pest!
Anyway, on to the charts. These are all ETFs, and they all have the same message: it is time for the bears to rise again! We begin with the Industrial symbol XLI, which has broken its long term trend from 2009:
 As if on cue, out comes Anthony B. Sanders with… US Housing Starts Plunge Under Rising Interest Rates
I agree with you, this does not look healthy.
Apparently everyone “knows” that the drop we saw in the first two weeks of October is going to be a repeat of what happened earlier this year on February 9th. I’d like to think of some broader possibilities. There are, of course, practically limitless possibilities for what the market will do next, but let’s consider four distinct general pathways. (Incidentally, it occurs to me that all of these are the S&P cash index, not the @ES, but I’m not about to relabel all of them!)
The first possibility is, again, what everyone “knows” will happen. That, for the 397th time, the stupid bears will be sucker-punched, and new lifetime highs are just a few weeks away. We’ll call this prospect “Alpha“:
From time to time, I mention a disease I have that doesn’t seem to affect most people. It’s called “Blogger’s Guilt”. I feel an insatiable need to create content and tools for you.
Most other sites – – and I could name them, but some of them are ostensibly my friends, so I won’t – – get away with maybe three posts a week and no tools at all. I, on the other hand:
- Generate about 100 posts a week;
- Have given you the greatest comments system in existence;
- Have built the best charting platform on the web
And yet still I drive myself to do more. Every day. Even weekends. Into the night.
Having offered up an ungodly number of incredible ideas lately, I feel I am entitled to giving myself a two hour break. So I will do that. Because, as you can see below, it’s been a busy day.
Share the love. I give it daily. I hope you feel it. Send it back my way.
While thumbing through the paper (which has become a munificent source for anecdotes lately), I saw this advertisement. The image is a bit odd because this is a scan of a newspaper, so you can see some of the very exciting specials from the Willows Market advertisement on the other side of the same page. Still, you can make it out pretty clearly:
There is no product of media that has had more influence in my life than the original Star Trek series. I watched the show incessantly as a child via reruns, but it has been a long time since I’ve really spent time watching the episodes in detail. Having done so recently, the experience is naturally an enormous contrast with what I experienced as a kid.
The special effects are obviously quite primitive, the technology references are woefully outdated, and the writing is uneven, varying from superb to absolutely awful.
The biggest shock for me, however, was the sex. It’s EVERYWHERE in the show. Easily one-third of the episodes are almost entirely driven by some kind of love interest, and it isn’t just Kirk. Most of the male crew members have got it goin’ on at some point or another with human women, alien women, green-skinned women, and even robots (that look like women).
I’m sure I spent far more time om this than I should have, but………….. (more…)
My home of Palo Alto, California, has been in the news a lot for the past couple of weeks for reasons we needn’t explore here. I’ve written about my town many times before, including this post from three years ago in which I explained how the city had hired guards to stand alongside the train tracks in town to try to make sure students weren’t leaping in front of express locomotives to escape the pressure of being someone’s child in this town. At present, I think the city is spending about $1.5 million a year on these guards. I pass them every single day, and you’ve never seen a human more bored.
I was reminded of the subject of Palo Alto children today when I saw this on the front page of our local newspaper, the reading thereof being a rigid morning habit of mine:
Since everyone in the country is watching Dr. Ford, I’ve put together a just-for-fun post. I also want to encourage you to check out Slope this afternoon, because I have created Yet Another Awesome Feature in SlopeCharts that you should know about.
As a little kid, one of my simple pleasures was Highlights magazine. Most of you probably remember this, since it was a staple at most pediatric and dental offices. The part I liked the most, of course, was Goofus and Gallant. I was a really good kid, but I guess I had a prurient curiosity about what a nasty kid like Goofus would be up to. Whether he is demanding to be fed….….