Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Inside their Minds

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There was a time I thought pretty much all my readers were from the United States. Out of fear of offshore hacking, I blocked a ton of countries and quickly found out how many loyal readers I have in places I could never have imagined. It seems just about every landmass with civilization has Slopers on it. Indeed, looking at my Twitter followers (which is a pretty good proxy for the site in general), you can see how they are spread far and wide.

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How Now Dow Cow?

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A reader recently shared with me some charts which I find remarkable. The point is a simple one, as is the presentation.

Below is a monthly chart of the Dow 30 Industrials. Take note of the two study panes beneath it: the top is the stochastics, and the bottom is the MACD. In particular, notice the line markups on the indicators showing the pattern breaktop (stochastics) and the non-confirmation divergence (MACD). Click on the chart to see a bigger version.

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An Analysis of Past Ideas

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UPDATE: The original post is below, but in an amazing “duh” moment, I realized how easy  it would be to automatically have the latest stock prices in the spreadsheet, so I modified it to show those. After doing so, the profit results improved by over 30% (as of this writing). I frankly can’t believe I was so dim that I hand-entered the quotes originally, but the bottom line is that the profits were better than originally reported.

From time to time, people ask if I have some kind of spreadsheet that tracks the results of my various ideas. Over the many, many years this website has been around, I’ve never done so, but I decided to take an afternoon to compile an analysis of a couple of “Premium” videos I did early in October 2018. Although these videos were behind a paywall, you can view video one and video two freely now.

I entered all these ideas into a publicly-viewable spreadsheet, which shows each symbol, its closing price on October 5th (when I made the videos), and its closing price seven weeks later (when I did the analysis). They were all short ideas, and the results speak for themselves.

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“Harbinger of Doom”: Amigo 3 in Play, But Real Doom Awaits

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“The Harbinger of Doom”? Of course we (well, the media) are talking about the yield curve AKA Amigo #3 of our 3 happy-go-lucky riders of the macro. I have annoyed you repeatedly with this imagery in order to show that three important macro factors needed to finish riding before situation turns decidedly negative.

Amigo 1: SPX (or stocks in general)/Gold Ratio

Amigo 2: 30 Year Treasury Yield

Amigo 3: Yield Curve

In honor of Amigo 3’s arrival to prime time let’s have a good old fashioned Amigos update (going in reverse order) and see if we can annoy a few more people along the way. 🙂 (more…)

Another View of China (by Binkius Hippo)

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Chinese Communist dynasty emperor Xi knows they’ve blown the biggest bubble in the history of humankind. All measures being taken by Communists are to ensure the survival of the party when this bubble eventually pops. Dynastic succession in China usually involves the losers’ entrails being paraded around Tiananmen square (or other significant public gathering place), so this is about survival. Politics, economics and ideology are secondary.

The Communist dynasty knows that the bubble will pop and they will lose the mandate of heaven (economic prosperity). The only way they can stay in power is if the blame can be diverted. Trump is heaven’s gift to the Communist dynasty. EVERYTHING can be blamed on Trump. The Communist dynasty will play the nationalism card – having been attacked by Trump. The Chinese will rally around this. Trade was forced on China (Most Favored Nation was a punitive trade measure against China by the western powers) and now Trump is going back against trade treaties designed to humiliate China since the Boxer Rebellion. (more…)

Stalemate

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Before I begin, a couple of bits of business. First, some folks have been expressing an interest in the brokerage Tastyworks. If you want to sign up, for the love of Tim, please sign up for tastyworks here  – – it doesn’t cost you any extra, and they throw me a few shekels for helping them out. Thank you!

Second, apologies to my PREMIUM customers for dialing back on my posts, but honestly, the G20 scares the bejesus out of me, and I promise to be more prolific once it’s out of the way. I am staying very light, as I’ve said ad nauseum, until this stupid get-together is over.

Today, Thursday, was basically Wednesday in miniature. Early weakness, strength out of the blue, and basically another bear-beating. Interestingly, the ES retreated from my “do not cross here” line (the high price of the previous “lower high”), but it’s horrifyingly close. (more…)

Ice Cubes for the Christmas Tree

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A few days ago, I stumbled upon a fun little riddle which you can see here. (The answer is here but try to solve it first). When I was a kid, I used to do brain teasers, tests, and puzzles all the time, and I was pretty good at them. I stopped being a student decades ago, though, and even though this riddle was labeled “Easy”, I gave up.

The approach I took was a logical and binary one. I simply tried the direct approach of trying to figure out which switches corresponded to which light. When I found the problem unsolvable and peeked at the answer, I saw that I had totally missed another data point (I won’t allude to it here, since I don’t want to spoil the puzzle for you). (more…)

Deconstructing the Crypto Genius

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James Altucher, the self-described “crypto genius”, is someone about whom I’ve written in the past, but as I gaze upon the smoldering landscape that used to be the thriving cryptocurrency industry, I feel compelled to write on this topic again, since I think Altucher’s marketing efforts a year ago speak so much about the nature of the crypto craze at that time.

To be clear, I have no axe to grind. I’ve never lost money with the guy. Never had any kind of personal or professional relationship. Never met him. But, like virtually all of you reading this post, I’ve seen his face countless times on ads (especially late in 2017 and early in 2018) touting the surefire investment power of crypto. He became, in the words of the press, the “face of Bitcoin” (I guess all the other faces were taken).

Altucher is definitely a man who could be described in totally opposite ways, all while being completely honest. You could, for example, talk about him as a successful entrepreneur, popular author, widely-followed podcast host, and multimillionaire venture capitalist. Every one of those things would be true. You could, with just as much honesty, describe him as a man with multiple failed marriages and relationships, a person who by his own admission blew tens of millions of dollars and was at the brink of suicide, and a man who has created businesses that have drawn the wrath of customers and the Better Business Bureau alike. All true. It depends on how you want to spin things. (more…)

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