Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Note: This is not market analysis. This is a person writing words and inserting some funny pictures. It is a product of said person’s view of psychology and the modern market.
First off, my honest self-evaluation: I would be pleased to see the US stock market to go down again, not because I am positioned for it (I am not, yet, other than through fairly non-dramatic risk management like portfolio balancing, profit taking and keeping high cash levels as appropriate) but because I feel like the bull was cooked up by an evil man named Ben Bernanke.
When I write “the bull” I am not talking about the post-Christmas Eve rally. That had to happen and at the time I was buying the spiking fear and panic. I am talking about the post-2008 bull market.
Regarding Bernanke, evil is probably too strong a word but I consider the effects of his policy to have been purely evil, exponentially enriching the already rich and driving the middle class to the verge of… electing an American TV character who says the right things to those who want, no need to hear those right things after the Bernanke years of abuse (ironically, with the distribution to the rich taking place under a president thought of as a socialist redistributor… only in America). (more…)
I have a rather unique vantage point as the owner of this little corner of the Internet. People from various parts of the world know me by way of Slope as well as my show on tastytrade, and some of the bears among them (God love ’em) consider me their ursine patron saint, so when things are going badly (like, oh, the past six weeks nonstop) they reach out to me.
Well, last night, this is pretty much what I experienced:
We absolutely busted our humps this weekend on SlopeRules, so I’m going to be very focused on testing that. In other words, I won’t be cranking out ten posts a day. More like two or three……….because SlopeRules is (partly) our future.
In the meanwhile, it was fascinating to see the AMZN-like U-turn that GOOGL (retarded real name: Alphabet) performed after the close. Clearly the FANG giants have a trend going these days:
Going through 2018’s posts to pluck out my favorites for the “best of” retrospective was truly eye-opening. I re-read some things I had written back, for instance, in March, and by recalling how certain I was of a particular direction (which, in some cases, absolutely did not happen) gave me a renewed sense of humility. It was an edifying exercise.
I was so relieved that the ES and NQ exhibited strength last night. I have dipped my little toe back into the shorting waters again, but five-sixths of my potential shorts are too cheap for me to want to short still. I’m holding out hope we’ll have enough power to reach the yellow tint.
Well, folks, just ten trading days to go this year. I’m in a constant conversation with myself about how much risk to take. I’ve got a good profit. Do I just go to all-cash and guarantee it, thus avoiding the traitorous and self-serving actions of the clearly-cowardly Jerome Powell, or do I boldly try to enhance the profits until the bitter end? Dunno. The market isn’t exactly screaming “bull-party” at the moment. 2620 was the key, and last night’s attempt at a rally flopped before it even got there.
In all likelihood, I’ll remain relatively aggressive up to the Fed meeting. If Powell slips on a pink taffeta dress and runs shrieking in terror from having his feels hurt by a Trump tweet, then I’ll probably just shut ‘er down for the year. Wednesday is the pivot point. It’s going to be exciting.