Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Practicing Patience

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Going through 2018’s posts to pluck out my favorites for the “best of” retrospective was truly eye-opening. I re-read some things I had written back, for instance, in March, and by recalling how certain I was of a particular direction (which, in some cases, absolutely did not happen) gave me a renewed sense of humility. It was an edifying exercise.

I was so relieved that the ES and NQ exhibited strength last night. I have dipped my little toe back into the shorting waters again, but five-sixths of my potential shorts are too cheap for me to want to short still. I’m holding out hope we’ll have enough power to reach the yellow tint.

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Countdown

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Well, folks, just ten trading days to go this year. I’m in a constant conversation with myself about how much risk to take. I’ve got a good profit. Do I just go to all-cash and guarantee it, thus avoiding the traitorous and self-serving actions of the clearly-cowardly Jerome Powell, or do I boldly try to enhance the profits until the bitter end? Dunno. The market isn’t exactly screaming “bull-party” at the moment. 2620 was the key, and last night’s attempt at a rally flopped before it even got there.

In all likelihood, I’ll remain relatively aggressive up to the Fed meeting. If Powell slips on a pink taffeta dress and runs shrieking in terror from having his feels hurt by a Trump tweet, then I’ll probably just shut ‘er down for the year. Wednesday is the pivot point. It’s going to be exciting.

Who’s Winning?

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Don’t let my Herculean physique fool you. I’ve never been an athlete. Not even once. In fact, I don’t even like perspiration. The only exercise I get is swimming, and that’s because I don’t have to deal with sweat, which I find sort of ewwww. So, yeah, I’m a man’s man.

My beloved children, however, are all top-notch fencers, and they tour internationally. We travel as a family, the gallant Knights and their swords, which on occasions like this pulls me somewhat away from my normal prolific nature.

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Stages of Rages

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Now that we’re in an honest-to-God bear market………….thank the maker…….I am obsessing over charts even more than I normally do (which is saying a lot). I’ve noticed that the most interesting charts are those which are breaking down in stages. That is, they will be locked into a range-bound period of consolidation, and then some “shock event” will lurch them down to a new, lower range, and they’ll stay locked there. It makes for good use of horizontal lines. Apple is a good example:

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After the Fall

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There’s something I’ve noticed on Slope that I find perplexing, a little troubling, and ever-so-slightly amusing. Whenever I write anything that seems to be a prediction, some people get their feathers quite ruffled. Indeed, it seems to kind of piss them off, and they pound their virtual fists on the virtual table and declare that no one can predict anything, and that it’s an arrogant waste of time to even attempt it.

I’m in the business of prediction. Principally, I use historical price charts to try my best to suggest what the future holds. That sort of thing doesn’t seem to bother folks. On the contrary, it’s kept Slope popular, to varying degrees, for nearly fourteen years.

However, when I make, shall we say, textual predictions, some people object. I guess all I can say to that group is………you might as well stop reading the post now, because I wanted to offer up a few speculations about what’s ahead. I am by no means a futurist or an expert in societal trends. By far my biggest “this is what’s coming” success was the 1983 book I wrote, which I’ve mentioned here before, called The World Connection, which predicted our online world with Nostradamus-like accuracy. (more…)

So Why Cover Now?

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First off, I urge you – -nay, insist! – – to check out the incredibly sexy and fantastic Quarterly Reports page. Oh, my God, it’s beautiful!

Second, I wanted to tell you that I’ve covered a ton of positions. And by “ton” I mean I’ve gone from 300% margined to only about 95%, and from 90 positions to 35. For someone like me, this is almost like “nothing but cash”. Now let me be clear, I hate taking profits. Just hate it. Here’s why:

  • The opportunity is gone. Well, mostly. I still have some shorts. But if we crash, I’ll feel like stupid.
  • The thrill is gone! It’s FUN to see profits explode when the market is falling.
  • The entry prices were DYNAMITE. I’ll never get prices that good again!

However……… (more…)

A Strange Problem to Have

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We are only 18 trading days into the final quarter of the year, and part of me wants to close out everything, chalk up a profitable year, and be done with it. I honestly don’t think I’ve had such a powerful run in such a short span of time since, well, a decade ago. Going entirely into cash right now would take risk to zero and allow me to lock in all these fabulous profits.

Just look at how quickly things have become undone. That sliver of time on the right utterly unwound the long slog of gains shown in green. Sell-offs are swift and severe, aren’t they?

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Fibber McGee

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You know that things are starting to turn around for the bears, because people are starting to ship me alcohol. Back in the good old days of 2008, my mailbox was always stuffed with wine and chocolates. That dried up for years – – yes, years – – but recently fine liquors have started arriving. Indeed, I’m sipping on a superb bourbon at this very moment. Slopers are a fine lot.

I asked in the prior post whether people liked the variety of writers we have or whether it should be just me. Well, a large quantity of you responded, and the winner is………the status quo!

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