Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
There’s something I’ve noticed on Slope that I find perplexing, a little troubling, and ever-so-slightly amusing. Whenever I write anything that seems to be a prediction, some people get their feathers quite ruffled. Indeed, it seems to kind of piss them off, and they pound their virtual fists on the virtual table and declare that no one can predict anything, and that it’s an arrogant waste of time to even attempt it.
I’m in the business of prediction. Principally, I use historical price charts to try my best to suggest what the future holds. That sort of thing doesn’t seem to bother folks. On the contrary, it’s kept Slope popular, to varying degrees, for nearly fourteen years.
However, when I make, shall we say, textual predictions, some people object. I guess all I can say to that group is………you might as well stop reading the post now, because I wanted to offer up a few speculations about what’s ahead. I am by no means a futurist or an expert in societal trends. By far my biggest “this is what’s coming” success was the 1983 book I wrote, which I’ve mentioned here before, called The World Connection, which predicted our online world with Nostradamus-like accuracy. (more…)
First off, I urge you – -nay, insist! – – to check out the incredibly sexy and fantastic Quarterly Reports page. Oh, my God, it’s beautiful!
Second, I wanted to tell you that I’ve covered a ton of positions. And by “ton” I mean I’ve gone from 300% margined to only about 95%, and from 90 positions to 35. For someone like me, this is almost like “nothing but cash”. Now let me be clear, I hate taking profits. Just hate it. Here’s why:
- The opportunity is gone. Well, mostly. I still have some shorts. But if we crash, I’ll feel like stupid.
- The thrill is gone! It’s FUN to see profits explode when the market is falling.
- The entry prices were DYNAMITE. I’ll never get prices that good again!
We are only 18 trading days into the final quarter of the year, and part of me wants to close out everything, chalk up a profitable year, and be done with it. I honestly don’t think I’ve had such a powerful run in such a short span of time since, well, a decade ago. Going entirely into cash right now would take risk to zero and allow me to lock in all these fabulous profits.
Just look at how quickly things have become undone. That sliver of time on the right utterly unwound the long slog of gains shown in green. Sell-offs are swift and severe, aren’t they?
You know that things are starting to turn around for the bears, because people are starting to ship me alcohol. Back in the good old days of 2008, my mailbox was always stuffed with wine and chocolates. That dried up for years – – yes, years – – but recently fine liquors have started arriving. Indeed, I’m sipping on a superb bourbon at this very moment. Slopers are a fine lot.
I asked in the prior post whether people liked the variety of writers we have or whether it should be just me. Well, a large quantity of you responded, and the winner is………the status quo!
In my pre-market, it’s-still-dark-outside post from this morning, I wrote, in part:
Animal spirits still abound, and there’s a certain subset of the “investor” crowd which are simply gamblers that love stuff like IQ and TLRY. Now that cryptos have crapped all over themselves, they are no longer a suitable place for the casino crowd to get their adrenalin rush. So it’s focused on stuff like TLRY which, I assure you, will look like the chart of IQ soon enough.
In case anyone didn’t really buy the notion that the same psychology was driving gambling in crypto and gambling in pot stocks, observe the intraday action today from TLRY:
This week, I am going to bring back the list of reasons that have been paraded before you over the last three-plus years as to why the stock market rally is over:
Brexit – NOPE
Frexit – NOPE
Grexit – NOPE
Italian referendum – NOPE
Rise in interest rates – NOPE
Cessation of QE – NOPE
Terrorist attacks – NOPE
Crimea – NOPE (more…)
Did someone accidentally shove yesterday’s tape in? This is getting silly. Here’s yesterday’s end-of-day action………..
It was, as is my habit, an early morning for me. Weekday or weekend, I get up before the sun. I walked to the library of this magnificent place we’re staying in Healdsburg, alone, since most people have the good sense to sleep in late on a Sunday, and I was intent on writing about something which has been on my mind a few days.
The shelves of the library were filled from end to end, and I was drawn to one particular pair of shelves which seemed surprisingly homogenous. On the spine of a book it stated: HARVARD CLASSICS and, beneath that, THE FIVE FOOT SHELF OF BOOKS. There were dozens of them, all numbered and arranged sequentially, with various public domain classics from the past couple hundred years of writing. I suspect someone bought it years ago from one of those Sunday newspaper magazines for folks that wanted to appear erudite by filling their nude shelves with impressive-looking volumes. The capitalized declaration was, for me, more like an intellectual pratfall. (more…)
Days like yesterday REALLY mess with my head, and only magnifies the distrust I have of this market on a day-to-day basis.
As you well know, Sunday night/Monday night was a sea of red. However, as has happened about 97.8% of the time over the past decade, the moment the opening bell rang, the Plunge Protection Team took over and healed the damage. What had started out as a handsomely profitable day turned out to be a wash and a waste of time.