Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Sad, Sad Tale of M.L.O.T.T.

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In trading, few things hurt worse than money left on the table. (In the unlikely event any of you are unacquainted with this term, it refers to profits forsaken because you were too impatient, scared, or what-have-you and missed out on extra money).

It’s virtually a truism in trading that you’ll score 8% on a given trade and it goes on to throw off 90% in gains. It happens all the time, but it happens CONSTANTLY in highly opportunistic and volatile markets like this one.

I am no stranger to this situation, particularly since my own emotional and psychological makeup doesn’t lend itself to – – how shall we put this? – – stalwart, steadfast, fearless determination. I prefer to slip on a pink taffeta dress, maybe some matching pantyhose, and scurry around closing anything that has a profit.

I’m exaggerating a bit (except for the clothes part), but just in recent weeks, the spreadsheet below shows the positions I have CLOSED, with the “entry price” reflecting whatever price I got when I closed them. Shield your eyes, Frank.

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Same Old Same Old?

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I was quite intrigued by see an article on ZeroHedge which basically stated that a level had been reached in the stock market which had a 100% success rate for the buy-the-dip crowd. Naturally, I wanted to dig deeper, which is what this post is about. Here, very simply, is the SPY with a 100 day exponential moving average. I have taken the liberty of circling the areas at which, over almost two full years, the prices tagged the moving average, and indeed ZH is right; it worked 100% of the time. (And, if I was king-sized-douchey, I would say “Full Stop“, but God knows I am nothing of the kind, so I shall not type that cursed and absurd word pair).

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Santa’s Revenge

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Well, after peaking just a few days ago at the highest level in history (see arrow), the /ES futures fell – – GASP – – almost five whole percentage points. It bottomed early on Monday’s session and has been clawing it back ever since.

The world expected and demanded a Santa Claus rally, and it came right through the chimney. The looming question, of course is – – will it take out that lifetime peak?