Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Next ______________

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In the world of financial stories, one of the most common themes is how such-and-so is going to be “the next” followed by fill in the blank. Often the blank is “Amazon” or “GameStop” or “Tesla.” This time, the two nouns involved are “copper” and “oil”:

I was intrigued by this, and judging from these charts, I’d say the idea of copper doubling from here is far-fetched. In fact, I’d say the very publication of such articles is more a sign of a top than the beginning of a new bull run:

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The Problem with Shorting Strength

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Something I’ve been noting over the past few weeks is the steadily rising Equity Put/Call Ratio 10MA. As a signal alone, a CPCE near its upper weekly Bollinger is one of the better breadth conditions I have found that can put me on alert to buy when the main DTL is breached. The vast majority of the time, Equity PCR rises during a pullback or correction, but it very rarely gets near the upper weekly bollinger when price has not pulled back a few percentage points first. In fact, in all the data I could view back to 2004, it has only happened five times. These occurrences have a few characteristics in common.

  1. High numbers of stocks that are trading above their 200 day MA’s
  2. Tends to follow some kind of extended run up.

After the S&P500 has had a good run, it’s only natural to start thinking that price has come so far that it’s getting a bit long in the tooth and perhaps a correction is right around the corner. The problem is that when too many traders and investors start considering hedging their bets and putting on some put protection most of you know what happens when there are too many leaning towards one opinion. Of course, it has a lower probability of happening. Especially when you consider these hedges decaying and keeping a passive bid under SPX where most hedging occurs.

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Atmospheric Change

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It’s been quiet for a long time. Exceptionally quiet. And why shouldn’t it be? Things are humming along in a manner that is satisfying to one and all. No one’s really needing to work. Everyone’s getting to gamble. And it’s easy to turn a profit. I’m sure people would like things to be like this until the end of time. Naturally.

It is said that the wisest words ever uttered were: “And this, too, shall pass.” Although people don’t want the firehose of free-money and risk-free profits to ever end, it will. I have no basis for saying so except the entirety of human history. It’ll end. And it will do so for reasons none of us are imagining.

Part of the quiet, incidentally, is in my own inbox. Tumbleweeds blow by, dust collects, and no missives sully it. I shouldn’t complain, though. I’d rather it be empty than full of anger. Empty isn’t so bad for a little while. The world has just the right mix of complacency and shock to not need to say anything.

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I Coulda Been a Contenda

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One of the lesser-known pages on Slope, but I’ve never seen its equal anywhere else, is the Woulda Shoulda Coulda page. In it, you can torture yourself with hypothetical investments from the past (mercifully, it doesn’t work with crypto).

For instance, late in 2005, I put $350,000 into a startup business. I did an experiment where I put the same amount into various well-known symbols. Let’s just say in a few cases, it would have been better just buying a publicly traded stock! (Although, let’s face it, I would have never, ever, EVER managed to hold on this long).