Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Well, here is EXACTLY the kind of screw-up I’ve only executed a few billion times in my trading life. Yesterday morning, following LULU’s gigantic surge, I went long puts on the stock. By day’s end, the puts were up about 5%, and I intended to hang on to them for at least a few weeks. This morning, however, during the insane run-up in stock prices, I panicked and dumped them at a loss. I did so at the EXACT millisecond they peaked. I’m disgusted with myself.
Happy new week, everyone. Had I been awake watching the /ES at midnight in the early morning hours, I would have been quite excited, because for the third weekend in a row, it decided to once again start plunging at precisely midnight, shaking off all prior gains. This time, however, the news that a bank no one has heard of (First Citizens) is acquiring the failed bank that likewise no one has heard of until a few weeks ago (Silicon Valley Bank) has convinced everyone that everything is fixed. Trash like First Republic (FRC) is flying higher. You can witness its Everything Is Awesome rally below, if your eyes are sharp enough:
My portfolio is not the market. I am not just referring to the fact I am a shameless, card-carrying permabear and that my portfolio is the inverse of the market, because it isn’t. I am referring to its behavior in the context of general market circumstances.
There are times when the market is weak and my portfolio isn’t moving. This is terribly frustrating for me, and I’ll glare at my screen and say GO DOWN! although it never helps. There are also times, like in recent days, when no matter what the market does – – even when it’s very strong – – my portfolio is a total champ, even to the point of me having no idea why on earth I’m doing well in the face of a screamingly green market. Wednesday was particularly like this, even with my myriad screw-ups.
As Thursday’s trading day wound down, I was getting a very good feeling about what today, Friday, was going to be like. When I feel that strongly about the market, I basically shut myself off from it. I don’t look at any screens. I don’t look at any updates. If I’m near a screen that might have a chart or a quote on it, I avert my eyes, much as you would at a YWCA locker room where you heard Yellen might be changing into her gym clothes. I want to keep my mind blank.
(more…)
