Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Curse of Abundance

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We are in the midst of daily events that would have been unimaginable only weeks ago. There is a particular aspect of the current environment I’d like to write about, and I’d like to approach it by way of a personal anecdote from many years ago.

Early in 1999, I had managed to get my little company, Prophet Financial Systems, on its feet again from a near-death experience from a few years before. The company had always been very thinly funded – – its initial starting capital was all of $3,000! – – and I had slowly and carefully nursed it from something I ran out of a spare room in my house into a real company with a real office and about a dozen employees.

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Chasing Cheap Stocks

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There’s a narrative being pushed in the mainstream media right now that people should buy stocks because they are “on sale.” Here are some examples of stocks which people gobbled up late last week. As of Monday’s close, they have already have lost almost half their value from the purchase price. I would point out that these losses were in the face of a nearly 700 point gain in the Dow on Monday!

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Phasing Back

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We all keep hearing about we just have to tough it out through Easter, and everything’s going to be totally back to normal. Spoiler Alert: it’s not. Indeed, the end of this endlessly-cited “15 Days” is on Tuesday! So there seems to be this cultural meme being bandied about that we’re just a few days away from ending this thing. We ain’t.

Of course, at some point, things will start to drift back to normal. In sharp contrast to the opinion of our ostensible leadership, however, I don’t think an enormous “pent-up demand” is suddenly going to explode into the former capitalist society of ours. I think it’ll vary tremendously. Off the top of my head:

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Bounces Are NOT Bases

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About a week ago, I was thinking to myself, “Tim, ol’ boy, you’ll be able to load up on cheap stocks and ride this bull higher! It’ll be like March 2009 was dropped into your lap!” I was genuinely excited about the prospect of having as much fun with bullish charts as bearish charts.

Since that time, having surveyed literally thousands of charts, I’m here to tell ya something: there are precious few honest-to-goodness attractive bullish charts out there. One of the handful, as I’ve mentioned, is BLDP:

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Bad News is Good Again

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It appears that my The Bottom Is In post managed to nail the bottom after all. One key moment happened after hours yesterday, after California Governor Newsom announced that the entire state would be in a state of lockdown. The ES and NQ sold off some at first (blue tint below), but within a few minutes, they regained their footing. They’ve spent all night climbing, with the NQ itself limit-up for a while (green tint).

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