As I trust I have made clear, the financial sector is a favorite right now for shorting. This chart of the XLF is, based on over 30 years of staring at charts, one of the most exciting and enticing opportunities I have ever laid eyes on. The analog and breakdown have, thus far, been spot-on.
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The massive financials analog continues to play out beautifully. We may see a little strength (or not) after all the recent weakness, but I think the die is cast. The financials, by way of XLF below, should ideally stay below 27.08 from here on out.
In spite of lifetime highs in most areas, the financials continue to look vulnerable. I mean, not everyone can be Netflix and Amazon, right? Anyway, the Analog From Hell is still utterly intact on the XLF:
Sheesh, what is with this market? Tuesday was awesome for me. Wednesday was absolutely horrible. And now today, Thursday, is going great. Could the market make up its mind? No, I’ll go one better. Have the market go down 2% daily, every day, until it is 0. That’ll suit me nicely. This up/down/up/down stuff is driving both the good guys (the bears) and the wicked evildoers (the bulls) out of their respective minds. It’s sick.
Anyway. I wanted to share a couple of unrelated short ideas (tied together by my clever post title). The first is the financial sector, XLF, which gapped down nicely where that circle is shown. This sector peaked back on January 29th, and its gap is at 27.72. I have so many bank stocks in my portfolio already, it would be redundant for me to short this one too, but it’s a cool chart.
I wanted to offer up a short idea in the form of Bank of Nova Scotia (symbol BNS). It is range-bound at the moment, and I’ve got my stop at 62.65:
I think it’s worth noting the broad cycles that Morgan Stanley has had over many years. Below I’ve shown (with a bit of help from Mr. Roper) what the moving averages have illustrated about Morgan’s moves over the decades. To my eyes, it seems to have peaked, as it has twice before.
Wells Fargo is struggling to re-enter its long-term upward-trending Andrew’s Pitchfork channel, as shown on the following monthly chart of WFC.
The momentum indicator has fallen below the zero level on this timeframe and has formed a lower swing low…hinting of further weakness ahead. And, as I mentioned in this February post, major support is at 50.00, so a break and hold below would likely see price retest the October 2016 lows, or drop lower.
* UPDATE @ close…WFC continued its intraday drop and closed near its low of the day at 52.26. (more…)