Preface to all sector posts: This weekend I’m organizing charts in a different way. I’ve picked from my existing portfolio of live short positions and have grouped favorite shorts in specific sectors. Here are the selections for this group, and hopefully the markups will speak for themselves.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
Sector Focus: Chemicals/Commodities
Preface to all sector posts: This weekend I’m organizing charts in a different way. I’ve picked from my existing portfolio of live short positions and have grouped favorite shorts in specific sectors. Here are the selections for this group, and hopefully the markups will speak for themselves.
Sector Focus: Real Estate
Preface to all sector posts: This weekend I’m organizing charts in a different way. I’ve picked from my existing portfolio of live short positions and have grouped favorite shorts in specific sectors. Here are the selections for this group, and hopefully the markups will speak for themselves.
Sector Focus: Finance
Preface to all sector posts: This weekend I’m organizing charts in a different way. I’ve picked from my existing portfolio of live short positions and have grouped favorite shorts in specific sectors. Here are the selections for this group, and as always, click on any image to get a bigger view. Hopefully the markups will speak for themselves.
The Joy of SOX
As you know, I don’t tend to be bullish on……..anything……..but I’m going to make an exception for the Slope of Hope. Judging from the load on our server farm, we’re definitely getting popular:
I wanted to highlight the semiconductor sector, where I’ve got a few successful shorts. This index has been sailing smoothly. Yes, we’ve had a dip recently, but if past history is any guide, this is about as long as we “should” go. (more…)
Semi Sector: A Warning or a Buy?
Air Turbulence
JetBlue is falling hard this morning; you can see where it broke its symmetric triangle a number of weeks ago.
Transports Are Becoming Derailed
Semi Tough
The semiconductor sector has been an important bulwark in the strength of tech stocks. Looking at the SOX, it’s look to me like it is fraying around the edges. There hasn’t been a negative crossover yet, but it’s getting close.
A Bull in a China Shop
Following is the opening segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 504. For months now we have been tracking a divergence in the key cyclical Semiconductor Equipment segment (I am short AMAT & LRCX) to the broader Semi sector (ref. the most recent article from May 18th here) and this week we put more context to the divergence.
A Bull in a China Shop
In light of the developing trade war between the US and China, let’s review the all-important Semiconductor sector and in particular, the Semi Equipment segment, which is a key economic early bird (and canary in a coal mine).
Various sectors took hits on Friday as Trump moved forward with Tariffs on China. But most of those sectors and industries are follow-on aspects of the economic cycle, which got its start when the early bird chirped in early 2013.
With China in Trump’s crosshairs and China a very key player in Semi Fab Equipment, there is a fundamental reason that the Equipment companies are faltering. From SEMI by way of a post at nftrh.com in March.
“SEMI predicts Samsung will lead the pack in fab equipment spending in both 2018 and 2019, even though it will invest less each year than in 2017. By contrast, China will dramatically increase its year-over-year (YOY) fab equipment spending for the next two years – by 57 percent in 2018 and 60 percent in 2019 – to support fab projects from both overseas and domestic companies. The China spending surge will thrust it past Korea as the top spending region in 2019.” (more…)