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As I mentioned in my post of August 5, volatility ramped up on July 26 and it continues to churn in US markets, as evidenced on the following daily chart of the SPX, as well as the monthly chart of the SPX:VIX ratio.
Near-term resistance and support levels are 2950 and 2800, respectively, on the SPX.
Major resistance and support levels on the SPX:VIX ratio are 200 and 100, respectively.
In short, the market seems to have completely and utterly absorbed the trade deal failure. Indeed, when we were told how a trade deal was absolutely going to happen, people agreed it would be uber-bullish when it did. And yet, now that it’s totally failed……….zilch. It’s become irrelevant.
One need look no farther than the VIX to witness this:
The number in the title is in honor of the boldest forecast burped up by the gold community
in February as the metal (and the miners) jerked upward and jerked the
holdout would-be enthusiasts into the market. It was included in the
anonymous (but real) quotes from a cautionary post last week on the Gold Bull Horns.
We also used these quotes in an NFTRH
update in order to try to make a point, despite what were very
short-term contrarian bullish readings that day (per Sentimentrader’s
data) for junior and senior gold miners.
From Hedge Fund Tips: AAII Sentiment Survey results are out this morning. Bullishness is now up OVER the 40 level – which usually marks market reversals. Bearishness has collapsed. In the S&P500 chart below I have noted those dates in the recent past where Sentiment was at similar levels (Bullishness ~40, Bearishness <30). You can follow along with the red circles on the sentiment results above.