Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On

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Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, the Opening Notes segment of NFTRH 602:

‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On

As we noted in March while it was happening the sentiment environment became terror-stricken. Not fearful. Not over-bearish. Not even a contrarian extreme. Market sentiment was marked by full frontal terror as indicator after indicator (ref. Sentimentrader’s historic readings week after week) got slammed to epic over-bearish proportions.

Into the breach sprang the Treasury (i.e. taxpayer) backed Federal Reserve to the rescue. As the employment numbers come in at the tragic readings that we all saw coming the bears are out there beating a drum (ah, Twitter) about why it is not right, why the Fed cannot print a bull market, why the stock market is going to make new lows and why you should avoid stocks! They have been saying this since the terror-stricken days of March and they are still saying it now.

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Triple-Scoop Cone

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One might assume that I’ve recently been finding the market to be annoying, vexing, and frustrating. OK, three strong adjectives………that’s a good start. I’d probably add a dozen more. All the same, it is what it is, and all I can do at times like this is manage risk responsibly. To that end, I have been dialing back my positions in light of the never-ending bid. I’m presently in 50 individual shorts at a 125% commitment level.

I thought it would be a good time to visit the Animated Price Cones (a Slope exclusive!) to try to get a little insight or perspective as to what in the holy hell is going on out there. I have shown the QQQ, IWM, and SPY. Even though the VIX has collapsed from nearly 90 down to the mid-20s, it’s still interesting what a wide swath of price possibilities is still suggested (although you’ll note in just the past few days, the sheer height of this thing has shrunk markedly). I suggest just starting at these loops a few time on each ETF to drink in what’s happening. It’s mesmerizing.

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Bounces Are NOT Bases

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About a week ago, I was thinking to myself, “Tim, ol’ boy, you’ll be able to load up on cheap stocks and ride this bull higher! It’ll be like March 2009 was dropped into your lap!” I was genuinely excited about the prospect of having as much fun with bullish charts as bearish charts.

Since that time, having surveyed literally thousands of charts, I’m here to tell ya something: there are precious few honest-to-goodness attractive bullish charts out there. One of the handful, as I’ve mentioned, is BLDP:

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