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In short, the market seems to have completely and utterly absorbed the trade deal failure. Indeed, when we were told how a trade deal was absolutely going to happen, people agreed it would be uber-bullish when it did. And yet, now that it’s totally failed……….zilch. It’s become irrelevant.
One need look no farther than the VIX to witness this:
The number in the title is in honor of the boldest forecast burped up by the gold community
in February as the metal (and the miners) jerked upward and jerked the
holdout would-be enthusiasts into the market. It was included in the
anonymous (but real) quotes from a cautionary post last week on the Gold Bull Horns.
We also used these quotes in an NFTRH
update in order to try to make a point, despite what were very
short-term contrarian bullish readings that day (per Sentimentrader’s
data) for junior and senior gold miners.
From Hedge Fund Tips: AAII Sentiment Survey results are out this morning. Bullishness is now up OVER the 40 level – which usually marks market reversals. Bearishness has collapsed. In the S&P500 chart below I have noted those dates in the recent past where Sentiment was at similar levels (Bullishness ~40, Bearishness <30). You can follow along with the red circles on the sentiment results above.
I have a rather unique vantage point as the owner of this little corner of the Internet. People from various parts of the world know me by way of Slope as well as my show on tastytrade, and some of the bears among them (God love ’em) consider me their ursine patron saint, so when things are going badly (like, oh, the past six weeks nonstop) they reach out to me.
Well, last night, this is pretty much what I experienced: