Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bounces Are NOT Bases

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About a week ago, I was thinking to myself, “Tim, ol’ boy, you’ll be able to load up on cheap stocks and ride this bull higher! It’ll be like March 2009 was dropped into your lap!” I was genuinely excited about the prospect of having as much fun with bullish charts as bearish charts.

Since that time, having surveyed literally thousands of charts, I’m here to tell ya something: there are precious few honest-to-goodness attractive bullish charts out there. One of the handful, as I’ve mentioned, is BLDP:

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Bad News is Good Again

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It appears that my The Bottom Is In post managed to nail the bottom after all. One key moment happened after hours yesterday, after California Governor Newsom announced that the entire state would be in a state of lockdown. The ES and NQ sold off some at first (blue tint below), but within a few minutes, they regained their footing. They’ve spent all night climbing, with the NQ itself limit-up for a while (green tint).

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Gold Stocks: Peak Bleak?

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Peak Oil? That was an obvious and widespread promotion while it was in play and did not fool anyone who bothered to step aside from the herd that ran with it.

Peak Terror in broad stock markets? Well, that I don’t discount so readily because this is a system that was a debt-bloated accident waiting for the trigger that turned out to be COVID-19. Terrified casino patrons will pray that the Fed’s bullets are not duds because that is the only way out. That and the still-intact mass confidence in the Keynesian debt scheme that the Fed operates within.

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Skyward

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Greetings, yet again, from seven miles above the United States. I am making my way back to my beloved Palo Alto with a subset of my nuclear family, after a successful fencing venture.

Well, this is quite a strange feeling, being out of my shorts and bullishly positioned (albeit with a modest capital allocation).

  • Instead of seething about Fed interference, I am rooting for it;
  • Instead of cheering at the initial plunge in futures, I gasped at it;
  • Instead of resenting the rapid recovery in prices (so far, at least), I am celebrating it (although modestly, as I trust this rally about as far as I could throw the airplane I’m in right now).
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Sleepless in Shallow Alto

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As I begin this post, it’s 4:30 in the morning. I’ve been awake since 1:30. I’m usually a brilliant sleeper. I close my eyes and 10 and fall asleep instantly, and then I wake up at 5:20 a.m. with no alarm and get my day started. Not this time. It’s been too crazy.

Think of what’s transpired. Last Wednesday, the market was at the highest levels in human history (which is a little peculiar, since the whole “virus” thing was well known and spreading fast). Yesterday, we had the biggest drop on the Dow in human history. Added to which, this has been the shortest 10%+ drop in equities in human history. Absolutely incredible.

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