Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Testing Ideal Backtest Area

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In my posts last week I was talking about my post of 6th August 2021 when I was looking at the possibility that there would be a retracement this year to backtest a major broken resistance trendline on SPX, and the possible very bullish setup that a good retest would partially confirm, and I looked at that in more detail in my last post.

The trendline is the main resistance trendline on SPX on SPX from the low in 2009, shown on the chart below, and it was and is a really good trendline. The start was at the 2009 low, with touches at the lows in 2010, and highs in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020. It was so strong that I was expecting it to hold indefinitely until it broke in the wild move up after the 2020 low. This is the trendline I was looking to be backtested, and SPX delivered a visual hit of that trendline at the low yesterday, as you can see on the monthly chart below.

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Another Three Day Rule Target

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In my post earlier this week I was talking about my post of 6th August 2021 when I was looking at the possibility that there would be a retracement this year to backtest a major broken resistance trendline on SPX, and the possible very bullish setup that a good retest would partially confirm, and I said I would look at that in more detail in my next post.

The trendline is the main resistance trendline on SPX on SPX from the low in 2009, shown on the chart below, and it was and is a really good trendline. The start was at the 2009 low, with touches at the lows in 2010, and highs in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020. It was so strong that I was expecting it to hold indefinitely until it broke in the wild move up after the 2020 low. This is the trendline I am looking to be backtested.

So what’s the pattern setup? Well, the corresponding support trendline was only two touches at the point it broke down in 2020, so if that was rising megaphone support, then the 2020 crash delivered a decent 50% retracement of the move up from the 2009 low and that may have been be the resolution and end of that pattern. There is however a possibility that the 2020 move established a new rising megaphone support trendline, and that is supported by the way that the resistance trendline broke at the end of 2020, with first a monthly test, then another monthly test with a poke above and close below at the end of the month, and then the break and monthly close above on the third test of the trendline.

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2022: Still “the Golden Year”

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Gold is following a logical path in 2022

Reference this article posted on 12.30.21:

2022: The Golden Year

Gold has done nothing unusual and in fact it has done as would normally be expected. In February it began to rally out of the base on the daily (futures) chart below. Driven by war (easy on the war, terror and pestilence bull rationales dear gold bugs) and inflation hype, kneejerkers and momos (momentum players) quickly jumped on pushing gold to an overbought high on March 8. The resulting correction is normal and it is healthy. Momos are not allowed to participate in a real gold bull (at least not until later when the bull is obviously blowing off).

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Is the MICE Nearly Done?

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I would like to offer a possibility which I certainly hope is not the case, but I shall put it forward anyway. Here is my so-called MICE chart (which I dubbed, perhaps as a misnomer, Most Important Chart Ever) which is the S&P divided by the prevailing interest rate. I have adjusted the channel to incorporate all the moves in recent years.

(the ratio chart symbols are ($SPX/FR:DGS10))
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