Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
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Inflation-Adjusted Dow (by LZ)
The first chart is the DJIA divided by the CPI Index (overall level, not annual change). A return to the 2000 level would be a roughly 50% inflation-adjusted decline.
Very Important Resistance Area Here
The possible H&S I was looking at on Friday morning didn’t form and the move to retest the prior high has done some interesting technical damage to the bear case, so I wanted to have a look at that this morning.
The SPX hourly chart below shows the break over declining resistance from the all time high, which held perfectly at the December highs and established a high quality three touch resistance trendline.
On the bigger picture there is also a decent case that a falling wedge has formed from the all time high on SPX that could be a bull flag. That flag wedge would have underthrown bullishly at the October low and this might therefore be the start of a break up towards a possible retest of the all time high.
(more…)Candlesticks & Levels (by Xerxes)
I’m watching a few different timeframes to get ideas from a technical perspective in SPX. I’m sure everyone in the past two weeks has been hearing about how “After a large down year, the S&P 500 returns +%”, blah blah blah. While I understand and occasionally do studies like that, I think calendar year is simply too long of a timeframe. It doesn’t capture the length or nuance of the bear markets to determine the next short-term move as we only have about 70 (?) reliable yearly candlesticks to base any analysis on, which doesn’t seem like a lot at all. I prefer to use quarterly as the longest time frame for my candlesticks.
