Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I went out in the afternoon with gold screaming upward on COVID-19 hysteria. I see something like that and I mentally prepare for the “volatility violence” we talked about in last weekend’s edition of NFTRH (#591).
Maybe some of you old hats like me remember the last bull market, from 2001 to 2008. Yes, of course you do. Massive “attacks” on gold were routine, and they seemed to come at highly sensitive times for another manipulated asset class, stocks. How on earth can you calm the herds down and tend them back into stocks if gold is flying around way up there signaling ‘all’s not well!’?
Today from Fed Chairman Powell…
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the
central bank would fight the next economic downturn by buying large
amounts of government debt to drive down long-term interest rates, a
strategy that has been dubbed quantitative easing, or QE.
Of course they will. The fix is always in, isn’t it? Wouldn’t want to let a system and associated economy so far out on a brittle limb weighed down by exponential debt leverage go it on its own, now would we? Wouldn’t want anything like a naturally functioning economy because until an utter and complete crash and clean out, there can be no such thing. So more debt manipulation it is!
Note: The following is a TA post. It tries not
to focus on fundamentals or the negative potential sentiment setup that
could develop when Coronavirus relief finally spreads across the land.
It’s the short and long-term TA of it, as it stands now.
I found this comment response to the Goldseek version of my article on the long-term gold Commitments of Traders situation
to be amusing and also on point, since I know a lot of what I write can
be confusing to the untrained eye amid a sea of readily digestible analysis out there. Good one, sir…
Because it’s so important to see this correctly and not pretend we
(well, I) know more than we (I) actually do I find it important to look
at pictorial representations of history and think about them when I get
some quiet time (ha ha ha, like not on Twitter, not reading
financial/gold websites and most certainly not watching TeeVee finance
So I am thinking about the Commitments of Traders alignment with
respect to the gold price once again. That would be the same CoT that
has doggedly hung a poor risk vs. reward sign out over the sector from a
sentiment standpoint since the summer.
I most often use linear scale charts for stocks, markets and indicators for their more absolute
views. But in the case below we conjure up a long-term log scale chart
showing the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) and the S&P 500 (SPX), as it
works better in providing a percentage-based relationship between an
indicator of market liquidity and inflation when declining and lack of
liquidity, deflation or… it has to be said, Goldilocks, when rising.
Now, when viewing the most recent Goldilocks phase, where SPX has
gone in positive correlation with the GSR we will have to suspend
disbelief that this is anything normal or natural. It was created by
will of man as first the Bernanke Fed conjured a balls out inflation out
of 2008’s deflationary destruction and then as a crowning achievement,
concocted Operation Twist in order to manipulate the bond market into
flashing this signal… ‘Nope, no inflation here!’
The Nasdaq bubble popped in 2000 after motoring upward on increasing
volume in two separate phases. Volume rammed upward and RSI diverged.
Like shootin’ fish in a barrel it was, except that at the time I was too
inexperienced to see it. It was a steep slope and blow out.
Once again I have to disclaim that at the moment (and for quite some
time now) I hold not one single short position, in anything. I am only
long US and global stocks. But also managing cash and portfolio balance
as usual while feeling as though I’m playing a game of Musical Chairs
while the music still plays (nothing nearly as good as Keith’s style,
which has always resonated with me beyond most others).