Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Let’s take a look at some indicators that can come together to let us know when the next inflationary bout is in the offing.
The spread between 10yr and 2yr yields (the most commonly watched
yield spread/curve) is still steepening on the short-term. Live chart
The interplay between gold and silver is a critical component to
understanding what is out ahead; to understanding whether long-term
Treasury yields will rise and if they rise, whether it will be due to
inflationary pressures. It is a critical component to understanding
whether cyclical commodities and other aspects of a greater
inflation/reflation trade will finally break existing downtrends. See…
The signals have persisted since the May lows in the Semi sector and
in the broad markets. Nominal Semiconductor (esp. Semi Equipment) stocks
and the sector’s market leadership have remained intact into our window
for a projected cycle bottom, which was the 2nd half of 2019.
This post shines a favorable light on the Semiconductor sector while
at the same time acknowledging that may have little to do with the broad
market’s fortunes as Q3’s reporting begins next month. In other words,
while we have been projecting new highs for the S&P 500 on the very
short-term, there are fundamental and technical reasons to believe the
stock market could be significantly disturbed in Q4. But the Semi sector
is an economic early bird. Let’s remember that.
I cannot profess to tell others how to effectively manage their
accounts because I am a lowly participant who is learning all the time.
The truth is that 2019’s learning is much different than 2018’s learning
was, which was different than 2016, 2011, 2008/2009 and other pivotal
market phases. So I’d say that the biggest lesson to learn has been the
concept of marrying adaptability with discipline.
Cookie cutter advisers and brokers have it easier. They’re the majority of market professionals and they’ve learned and set in stone the way of allocating into markets; 60/40 stocks to bonds or some such variant. But for something more effective than ‘cookie cutter’, you need to keep learning, adapting and holding discipline as long as your signals remain valid.
If you hear one peep out of the gold community about a precious metals “take down”, “attack”
or any other such aggressive or war-like language you will then be
hearing some old fashioned and promotional gold bug orthodoxy.
Fortunately, a casual look around the Bug-o-Sphere does not yield too
many obvious conspiracy theorists or importantly, cheerleaders.
Indeed, it seems that all too many bugs expected this correction in
gold, silver and the miners. That is a good thing because when the real
top comes these ladies are going to be out front and greed will be
running rampant (quite possibly against a negative fundamental or
valuation backdrop as in 2008).
Since we noted the initial move to break the 200 day moving average
– and at least temporarily break the downtrend on August 27th – the
Silver/Gold ratio (SLV/GLD) has held its breakout, looking to close the
week and the month of August on a signal that we have long anticipated.
Mr. Steven Ricchiuto, he of a Masters in Economics from Columbia, has
laid out the proper plan for the Federal Reserve in this oh so noisy
environment in which an unassuming and fairly quiet man is trying to
tune out a personal bully on Twitter, tune out the stock market’s daily
whipsaw and do what he perceives to be the right thing.
Today, the academic named above throws in with Trump and politely
harangues Chairman Powell thusly in an open letter. You can read it by
hitting the graphic…