Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

US Stock Market – In Need of a Correction

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The US stock market (SPX) is overbought and vulnerable in the near-term

Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 797:

The US stock market is in need of a correction. Now, will it get one?

On the CPI down day I looked at the market and decided to leave well enough alone because of course they were going to gun it to punish anyone shorting that down day on supposedly bad news (pumping up the hawkish Fed). But I looked at the gap near the all-time highs on the daily chart of SPX and thought ‘hmm, if they close that gap maybe give it a shot…’. They closed the gap and I gave it a shot.

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It’s a Bubble, and it’s Intact

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The bubble in ‘no holds barred’ monetary policy (birthed under Alan Greenspan) and the bullish markets it benefits are in their third decade

Gold, meanwhile, will not be ready until the “post” bubble

Introduction

This is an article from a source, yours truly, who considers it his job to define the ‘top down’ macro before trying to pick stocks. In other words, it is important to get the big picture macro, as well as its shorter-term rotations, right before trying to select stocks and the sectors they reside in. In an extreme example, the gold mining sector has been most often impaired by the ‘bubble on’ macro, including its inflationary phases, not helped by it. “Post-bubble” will be a different story. But you can’t change the macro because of ‘want’. It will change when it is good and ready.

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Yield Curve Steepener Thus Far Inflationary

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The new Yield Curve steepener has not yet un-inverted, but it’s in progress and thus far mildly inflationary

Reference Inflationary Yield Curve Steepening? from January 11.

In my opinion, after the secondary extreme inversion of the 10-2 yield curve in July a new yield curve steepener was in the bag. That is exactly what the curve has been doing since the secondary inversion.

10 year - 2 year yield curve steepener
cnbc.com
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Bond Market, Gold, Yield Curve and the Changes to Come

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Bond Market, Gold, Yield Curve and the Changes to Come

While it is far from the only important indicator for the markets, the Treasury bond yield curve (10yr-2yr) is very important because it takes what is probably the most important market for macro signaling (the bond market) and gives us a view into the dynamics between short and long-term yields. In the bond market, duration means a lot.

For one example, long-term bonds are much more vulnerable to inflation’s negative effects than short-term bonds. Short-term bonds also act as a liquidity haven during deflationary market crises. Long-term bonds can work quite well during disinflationary times and pay out better income than short-term bonds, but in a full out deflation scare when the very system (and its exponential debt load) comes into question insofar as you want bonds, you want short-term (in my experience 1-3 year Treasury, T-bills and Treasury Money Market). In other words, relative safety.

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