Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold Miners on Schedule

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Gold miners continue to correct per projections as GDX drops toward a buy zone

The gold and silver Commitments of Traders, as tracked each week in NFTRH leading into the correction, indicated a potential for a coming decline in gold, silver and the gold miners. A correction, not the end of the bull phase by this sentiment measure. CoT was overdone, but not extreme to a bull killer degree.

This as the macro fundamentals had been positive since late 2022 and gold miners’ technical situation bullish, but in doubt as to the ability to continue upward in the near-term.

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Gold Suppression or Confidence?

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Gold price suppression is the excuse du jour for its lack of relative performance; but that is not the reason

First let me get this in print up front; the gold price (like most/all markets) is manipulated in different ways. It can be talked down, it can be subject to paper buying/selling that does not bear resemblance to its street value (per the supply/demand dynamics of the physical market), and it can be subject to misguided mass emotions, both on the upside and downside. All markets are manipulated in one way or another or stimulated by mass emotion. For example, every time a Fed mouthpiece opens its orifice and the market reacts, it is manipulation by definition.

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Inflation Bugs Puking

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The April PPI report continues the disinflationary theme

The April PPI report came in to the disinflationary side, and as a side note unemployment claims jumped to the highest level since 2021. And inflation-centric goldbugs are scattering out of the inflation stuff, a label the majority of them wrongly assign to gold and worse, gold stocks. I just wish I could set my watch by these herds because then I’d sell everything and await the inevitable opportunity they produce.

However, on this cycle I have been much lighter on gold stocks than I will be when the next buying opportunity comes as the inflation bugs scatter amid accelerating real fundamentals *, probably amid a deflation scare if NFTRH’s existing theme, to which I strongly considered an alternative last weekend, manifests. But as yet, no Dedollarisation as USD holds support after the weak inflation data this week.

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Dedollarisation?

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Dedollarisation; the hip new buzz phrase may actually play out this time, for a while

The multitude of analysts that have been waiting for the “death of the dollar” (DoD) for at least a couple of decades now have a new jingle. “Dedollarisation” by global entities trading in goods and services will finally kill old Uncle Buck, or if you like, remove “King Dollar” from his throne.

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Copper/Gold Ratio

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“The metals” is not a thing says the Copper/Gold ratio; but a more in-depth macro view is required as this Greed/Fear ratio breaks down

To preface, I have no right to be right about the markets. All I have are indications that the herds either don’t know about or don’t care about (I know this by relative Twitter follows and, I assume, website popularity compared to promotional interests tending the herds and instigating their greed). *

So, any post like this can turn out to be wrong if, in this example, the Copper/Gold ratio somehow reverses, turns and burns, painting me as wrong headed. But it has not done that. What it has done is continue with the favored NFTRH macro theme that has been in place for most of the last year. That theme is that while the herds focus on backward looking indicators (and promotions), the forward looking ones have pointed to a continuum of inflation>disinflation>deflation scare in the interim to any new inflation cycle out on the distant horizon.

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