Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold Stocks Not Unique…….Yet

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Gold stocks have been among the leaders of the Q1 rally, but are not yet unique

It seems that all too often lately the gold mining sector is in tow with commodities in general and broad global stocks in its ups and downs. As a leader, but not THE leader of the rally that is fine for now as long as we’re still on the back end of the originally projected Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets.

But if I am correct in the view of a real bull market in gold and especially the miners, at some point this will have to change. Gold miners are counter-cyclical businesses and the fact that their cost inputs like energy, materials and even human resources are rising in cost is not positive. While the fact that gold has been outperforming most of these for the last 3 to 6 months is positive, the real play will begin when investors look at their portfolios, beaten to a pulp, and see only one sector (or one of a very few sectors) rising while a bear market resumes in cyclical, risk ‘on’ assets.

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Q4-Q1 Rally Led by Miners

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Copper and Gold miners are leading the Q4-Q1 rally in broad asset markets

Back in October we began to plan the prospect of a relief rally that would be fueled by over-bearish sentiment (contrary bullish), ‘Fed hawk’ relief as we anticipated inflation signals to ease, and a post (mid-term) election seasonal pattern that is bullish for stocks. This public article had a lot to say about that on November 10th:

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“Gold Stock Charts – All Negative”

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Gold stock charts are all negative, says a writer at GoldSeek

I am not seeking to be critical of another analyst (who I actually know nothing about), but instead want to critique the article based on its stated views, using only charts.

I am a chart guy, after all, and so I take notice when analysts use nominal charts in a vacuum to form conclusions (especially alarming ones) rather than using an integrated technical and macro fundamental approach. That’s because I am a chart guy whose technical abilities (in a vacuum) are limited because TA itself is limited.

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2022: The Golden Year?

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In 2022 the gold price has started to validate our projection from last December, and 2023 should see a bull move in gold miners emerge for all to see (and one day chase due to FOMO)

Reference 2022: The Golden Year as published on December 30th, 2021.

It’s been touch and go all year but the gold price could be shaking out in support of the admittedly sensational title of that article. Let’s take a checkup, starting with a paragraph from the year ago article.

Pardon the promotional sound of the title. I realize it, and I’m putting it up there anyway. There is a time for temperance and there is a time for promotion. Too many in the gold sphere forget about that first thing when risk is high, and in August, 2020 it was at nosebleed levels.

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As Inflation Signals Fade, the Gold Mining Sector Outperforms

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The gold mining sector is doing what it should do amid fading inflation

If you have tuned out inflationist gold bugs since mid-2020 you are now in position to capitalize, unlike scores of inflation bugs who’d already bought (and likely sold into tax loss season, 2022).

Readers of nftrh.com have seen this space write many times how gold is not about inflation. At least not primarily. That compounds with the gold miners, which leverage gold’s standing within the inflated (and periodically deflated) macro. The gold mining sector is not about inflation. As in 2003-2008 the gold miners can rise during an inflationary phase, but as in Q4, 2008 they would then be summarily executed due to poor accumulated fundamentals.

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