Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Silver/Gold Ratio is a Guide as Inflation Signals Fade Again

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The interplay between gold and silver is a critical component to understanding what is out ahead; to understanding whether long-term Treasury yields will rise and if they rise, whether it will be due to inflationary pressures. It is a critical component to understanding whether cyclical commodities and other aspects of a greater inflation/reflation trade will finally break existing downtrends. See…

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Semiconductor Sector; a Market & Economic Leader

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The signals have persisted since the May lows in the Semi sector and in the broad markets. Nominal Semiconductor (esp. Semi Equipment) stocks and the sector’s market leadership have remained intact into our window for a projected cycle bottom, which was the 2nd half of 2019.

This post shines a favorable light on the Semiconductor sector while at the same time acknowledging that may have little to do with the broad market’s fortunes as Q3’s reporting begins next month. In other words, while we have been projecting new highs for the S&P 500 on the very short-term, there are fundamental and technical reasons to believe the stock market could be significantly disturbed in Q4. But the Semi sector is an economic early bird. Let’s remember that.

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Market Management 101: Balance

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I cannot profess to tell others how to effectively manage their accounts because I am a lowly participant who is learning all the time. The truth is that 2019’s learning is much different than 2018’s learning was, which was different than 2016, 2011, 2008/2009 and other pivotal market phases. So I’d say that the biggest lesson to learn has been the concept of marrying adaptability with discipline.

Cookie cutter advisers and brokers have it easier. They’re the majority of market professionals and they’ve learned and set in stone the way of allocating into markets; 60/40 stocks to bonds or some such variant. But for something more effective than ‘cookie cutter’, you need to keep learning, adapting and holding discipline as long as your signals remain valid.

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Precious Metals Were Ripe for a Pullback

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If you hear one peep out of the gold community about a precious metals “take down”, “attack” or any other such aggressive or war-like language you will then be hearing some old fashioned and promotional gold bug orthodoxy. Fortunately, a casual look around the Bug-o-Sphere does not yield too many obvious conspiracy theorists or importantly, cheerleaders.

Indeed, it seems that all too many bugs expected this correction in gold, silver and the miners. That is a good thing because when the real top comes these ladies are going to be out front and greed will be running rampant (quite possibly against a negative fundamental or valuation backdrop as in 2008).

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Economist Lays Out the Next Step to Wonderland

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Mr. Steven Ricchiuto, he of a Masters in Economics from Columbia, has laid out the proper plan for the Federal Reserve in this oh so noisy environment in which an unassuming and fairly quiet man is trying to tune out a personal bully on Twitter, tune out the stock market’s daily whipsaw and do what he perceives to be the right thing.

Today, the academic named above throws in with Trump and politely harangues Chairman Powell thusly in an open letter. You can read it by hitting the graphic…

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