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The high last Friday was only three handles below the close on the daily 3sd upper band, which is a rare event, so I did what I like to do with rare events, I looked back and crunched some numbers looking at previous examples. These are the stats I posted on Monday morning.
There are eighteen previous instances since the start of 2007 where a move has either punched through the 3sd upper band or delivered a near miss within 0.0025% of it (10 points at nominal SPX level 4000). Excluding the punches, none of which were preceded by near misses, there are twelve instances. Of those twelve instances five of them delivered a second near miss within three trading days, usually on the next trading day. Of those two delivered a third near miss within four trading days.
If we were going to assign different books of the Bible to Slope’s own history (I almost typed the word Prophet, but that was before………..) the current one would be Exodus. Besides myself, I can think of only two people on this entire site who remain steadfast believers that the market will be lower later this year. The others, I’m sure, consider us foolhardy (or, as one chap put it, uni-directional). That may well be. The ONLY red on my quote screen now is the small caps (that is to say, the IWM) which I’ve pictured here:
The company Palantir (symbol PLTR) has tripled in price since December (since, as you know, the GDP has tripled since then). During the ascent, I’ve mentioned on my tastylive show that the first point of meaningful resistance would be the horizontal line defining the base of its right triangle top. It banged on it today and immediately reversed. This has a path lower toward the horizontal line constituting its bullish base now.
In my premarket video on Tuesday I was looking at the setup and the historical stats and, was saying that a consolidation was likely to start the week and, then we would see what the bulls could do with the very bullish historical stats on Thursday and Friday. Well, they came, they saw, and they have conquered so far, so as it stands we now have the start of what could be a serious bullish break up on SPX.
Short term though, SPX is so stretched that the high on Friday was only three handles below the close on the daily 3sd upper band, which is a rare event, so I did what I like to do with rare events, I looked back and crunched some numbers looking at previous examples.