Well, if I may offer the bears a faint wisp of hope – – and God knows we need it – – International Business Machines just had a massive failed bullish breakout pattern.(more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Well, since almost the entire sell-off this morning has been blown to hell, let’s trot out a long idea: Shopify (SHOP) which has completed an inverted H&S basing pattern.(more…)
The possible H&S I was looking at on Friday morning didn’t form and the move to retest the prior high has done some interesting technical damage to the bear case, so I wanted to have a look at that this morning.
The SPX hourly chart below shows the break over declining resistance from the all time high, which held perfectly at the December highs and established a high quality three touch resistance trendline.
On the bigger picture there is also a decent case that a falling wedge has formed from the all time high on SPX that could be a bull flag. That flag wedge would have underthrown bullishly at the October low and this might therefore be the start of a break up towards a possible retest of the all time high.(more…)
Shiller S&P Trendline from 1871
If we plot all of the data, we see that current fair value for the S&P is around 1373, which gives us a overvaluation factor of 2.8, or 181%. The S&P hasn’t been in the 1300s for more than 10 years, that’s like the Dark Ages for many of today’s traders. In 10 years fair value by that trendline will be 2161. The S&P needs to drop relentlessly, year after year, for 10 years, to get to that 2161 target in the year 2032. Ludicrous, right? Fortunately, we can turn off ludicrous mode very simply. How? Adjust the data. Which takes us to…………(more…)
I’m finding it difficult to get back into doing more than one post a week. I shall try hard to get two out next week. (Editor’s note: cough cough cough!)
On SPX a week ago I was looking for a reversal under declining resistance from the all time high, and ideally a decline and high retest to set up a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal. I got the first of those but not the second.
The decline from the high was too large to set up the RSI 5 sell signal and as time goes by, unless we are going to see a break of declining resistance from the all time high, a high retest is looking less likely as soon it might need to break that resistance to retest the current high.(more…)