Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Holiday Rally Setup

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SPX closed below the main SPX support/resistance trendline at the end of last week. This trendline has broken twice since 2009, and both times SPX followed through hard. In 2011 SPX broke very hard through it and never broke back over it until until 2020. In 2020 SPX broke over it, then closed the next week back below, and then didn’t close back below it again until last week. This is too limited a sample to extrapolate much from but there is precedent for failing to confirm the break the following week and then following through the break and so the likely weekly close back above today has precedent from 2020 and is not an obviously bullish development.

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Those Amazing Lines (Again)

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As many eons as I’ve been doing this, I never lose my sense of wonder about charting. A great example this week was Abercrombie & Fitch, from which I garnered 240% gains on the puts. I dumped my position swiftly on Tuesday morning when it crashed, and I’m glad I did, because it exploded about 25% higher on Wednesday. But check out where the peak was………..precisely at the same price channel which it had broken with such drama! I find that absolutely remarkable. Once again, support became resistance.

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In Cold Blood

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I know, I know. I’ve heard all the words. Oversold. Capitulation. The Fed Put. Buying opportunity. The whole schtick. And I’ve seen the counter-trend bounces and the fact that 99.999999999% of the planet wants the market to go up, and go up big. But the fact is that I’ve been doing this an awfully long time, and much more than most people, and when I see the size of the opportunity looming before us………..I can hardly breathe.

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