Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Upside Targets

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As I was saying in my last post, SPX should be back into an upwards cycle by the end of October and that would be likely to end by the end of November. SPX has duly now made new all time highs and is likely to go higher. Let’s have a look at the most obvious target area.

On SPX the initial rising wedge from the 2346 low is likely expanding into a larger rising wedge. Rising wedge support is now therefore in the 2915 area. The obvious overall target would then be the original rising wedge resistance, now in the 3110 area, and due to be in the 3130 area by the end of November. I would note the interesting fibonacci relationship here, in that if you take the move from the December low to the June low, and then add the same again to the June low, then the sum is 3111, which strengthens this area as a swing high target.

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Much Ado About Nothing

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ES has spent the whole of October in a low cycle but so far the action has been all sideways, with a strong rally last week taking SPX back close to the highs on the hope of a China deal. There was a China deal, albeit more of a glorified breathing space while more talks continue on the many tricky points of contention on which there seems to have been little or no progress so far, and there was good news for Soy and Lean Hogs, which are now cleared for purchase by China. With the Asian swine epidemic having had such a severe effect on herds Lean Hogs particularly look like a very interesting long here.

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Onwards And Downwards

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From Springheel Jack: It’s been a while since my last post and my apologies for that. It has been an intense summer of medical treatments for my wife, exams and results for my children, computer upgrades and so on. I’ve been feeling somewhat drained.

However the market has so far avoided being as tedious as it often is at this time of year, and, if I’m not much mistaken, then the next leg down on equities has started this morning from a short term reversal setup that is really one of the nicest that I have seen in quite a while. I was going through that in detail across SPX, ES, NQ, RTY, DAX and ESTX50 in the video below before the open this morning.

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A Decent Start

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SPX delivered some wild moves this week, helped along by the White House Staff’s ongoing failure to gain control of the President’s twitter account, but at the end of the week SPX has reached the obvious first target at a test of the 2915 support area, and there is a short term inflection point here. This is the retest of the late June low, just above a big open gap from 2889.67, and is a possible H&S neckline area. If SPX was to rally from here the ideal right shoulder high would be in the 2964 area, and that would set up a possible H&S that on a sustained break down would look for the 2800 area, with obvious serious support on the way at rising wedge support, currently in the 2870 area.

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Topping Out…….. Probably

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In my premarket video this morning for daily video service at theartofchart.net I was saying that until demonstrated otherwise I was expecting to see all time retests on ES and NQ before a possible swing high (and potential significant top). That high retest is at 3027.75 on ES and the high today so far has just missed that by 2 handles so far. That full test is likely needed before the turn. There is a very nicely formed nested double top setup formed on ES and SPX and that just needs a decent turn down to set the next move in motion.

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Daily Sell Signals Brewing

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In my post last Friday I was talking about the likely retest coming of the new all time high on SPX (and ES), and how that should set possible daily RSI sell signals brewing on SPX (and ES). We saw that ATH retest and marginal new ATH this morning and I am now looking for a high. It is possible that SPX/ES might go a bit higher but I wouldn’t expect much higher and I’d note that there is already a decent quality double top setup here and that on a sustained break below 2964 the double top target would be in the 2923 area.

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Coming Into The High Window

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Apologies for the long delay between posts. My wife has been having a serious health issue including some surgery so I have been very distracted.

In my last post I was looking for another high retest, and we have seen that, with a push this week into the psychologically important 3000 area after the close on Friday. So what now? Well the next high window slipped back from late June into the middle of next week, and we are looking for a significant high, and very possibly the 2019 high, to form in this area. In the short term I’m expecting SPX to test the new ATH on ES and I have a high quality possible rising wedge trendline currently in the 3005-10 area which would be a solid match with that.

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