Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

So Here We Are Then

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Last Friday I was saying that my preferred scenario on SPX would deliver a marginal new rally high to make the second high of a double top to then take SPX back into the 2600-50 area. We have seen that marginal higher high, the middle of this cycle high window is today, and the stats for next week lean significantly bearish. If everything keeps going to plan then SPX is about to reverse down here and this high may be the 2019 high, though I’m still wondering about a possible ATH retest after the next big low window in June.

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Back On The Three Day Rule

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I was looking at the likely reversal back up on Friday morning and obviously we have seen that. ES/SPX have since broken back strongly over the multiple resistance levels in the 2660-70 area, weekly and monthly pivots, daily middle band 5dma and 50 hour MA. So now what?

Well in the short term a retracement seems likely and in my premarket video this morning at theartofchart.net I was projecting an ideal path of a higher high (over 2799 ES Jun) setting up a possible 60min sell signal on ES. Ideally ES would then retrace back to the monthly pivot at 2765 ES (2760 SPX) before either breaking back down through that into lower lows, or (more likely) finding support and retesting the rally highs in what would probably be the second high of a double top setting up a larger retracement into the low 2600s.

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Looking For Retracement Low

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Everything that I was looking at on Wednesday has delivered except that SPX has not quite yet reached the H&S target at 2720. The daily RSI 5/NYMO sell signal fixed and reached target, the hourly sell signals on SPX and RUT both made target, and while SPX might need another marginal lower low to reached that 2720 target, this is the right area to see this retracement low, and it could already be in. So what now?

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Retest Interruptus

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I was making the argument before the open this morning that equity indices were so close to obvious resistance on NQ, RTY, DAX and ESTX50, that ES might well deliver a lower high this morning and fail hard there. So far that has delivered though this morning’s high might need a retest.

Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, ESTX50, SPX, NDX, RUT, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, DX:

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Topping Out …… Probably

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SPX and NDX reached the resistance areas that I was looking at and may be topping out there, the rising wedge support trendlines on SPX, NDX and RUT have all now broken down. So what now?

Well on SPX I have been watching three levels which are all currently in the same area. These are the SPX weekly pivot at 2784, the 50 hour MA now at 2787 and the 5dma now at 2790. What I was looking for this morning was a break down through these, which we saw, then a backtest into those as resistance which failed in that range. That we did not see, and I’m wondering whether we are going to see a high retest next to set up the second high of a small double top. SPX is still on a 60min RSI 14 sell signal with a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal brewing.

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SPX Rising Channel Support Broken

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I was looking this morning at the decent looking possible rising wedge resistance trendline established on SPX at the highs this week and watching with great interest as rising channel and now possibly wedge support was tested again this morning. The trendline held on the first test and then broke on the second, so there has now been a significant technical break down, and the door is open for a possible significant retracement on SPX/ES. We shall see what develops.

In the short term there is an open 60min RSI 14 sell signal that fixed yesterday, the 50 hour MA is at 2763/4, tested and the low today, and short term daily close support/resistance is at 2771. If SPX is topping out short term that we may see a high retest to set up the topping pattern for a larger retracement. (more…)

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