SPX has now broken above both the June and March highs, and should be on the way back to retest the all time high. Short term though we are looking for a modest retracement before the next leg up. The short term ES channel support that I was looking at in the premarket video has now broken, the overnight high is being retested and there is a lot of negative RSI divergence. This retracement should be starting soon and last into the first half of next week. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ: (more…)
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Onward and Upward
My apologies for the intermittent posts lately. As some of you will know, it has been very busy at theartofchart.net recently with the launch of a major new service for us on 25th June, Paragon Options, a directional options service trading options on futures. We’ve put a lot of work into developing and launching this service, which as far as we are aware is entirely unique, trading options on the wide range of futures and forex instruments we cover in our other services. Almost all or all other options services focus on stocks and ETFs. The first month is going well, up about 5% in the first two weeks and two days so far, and workload should be easing off a bit soon, but it has been very busy. My posting schedule should be back to normal soon.
Since I last posted that the retracement low was likely in, SPX formed a decent quality IHS and that has broken up and reached target at a retest of the June high. In the short term ES/SPX is retracing and ideally we’d like to see a low made today or tomorrow in the 2760-5 ES area before this uptrend resumes. (more…)
The Retracement Low Is (Probably) In
We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday. If you’d like to attend you can sign up for that on our July Free Webinars page.
SPX reached the ideal 2680-2700 retracement low range and has rallied strongly from there with a 60min RSI 14 buy signal fixing this morning. The low isn’t definitely in yet, with resistance at the 50 hour MA and daily middle band above in the 2737 and 2756 areas respectively, but this is a very strong candidate low, with a decent double bottom setup here meaning that there would be no need to retest the low as part of a bottoming process. We’ll see how that goes. (more…)
Minding The Gap
We are doing the monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday. If you’d like to attend then you can register for that on our July Free Webinars page. We are also running our annual July 4th weekend sale over the next few days, so over that period annual memberships purchased have four free months rather than the usual two. As with all our memberships, as long as the subscription is continuous, the subscription price will never be increased in the future.
After a slow start SPX is coming into the ideal low area 2680-2700 that Stan has been calling for the last few weeks. SPX is in the low window and we think that a low this week is likely. (more…)
A Bull Flag Megaphone Taking Shape
Apologies for the lack of updates this week. It has been extremely busy. I should be back on a more normal schedule next week. Stan and I are doing our monthly free public webinar on FAANG stocks and key sectors tonight, and if you’d like to attend you can register for that on our June Free Webinars page.
It has been an irritating week on the indices, from a promising start on ES/SPX and NQ/NDX, with high quality H&S patterns breaking down on all four, with then the H&S patterns on NQ/NDX failing into higher highs, and then the H&S on ES being invalidated at the highs last night, leaving the H&S on SPX as the sole survivor of the four patterns, having escaped invalidation by 0.13 handles at the highs yesterday. That still has an open target in the 2725 area.
So what is actually happening here? Well the overnight high on ES was very interesting as it established a three touch declining resistance trendline from the high. That was interesting because it suggests that a flag pattern is forming and, as long as that resistance holds, then ES should be on the way to confirm a pattern support trendline. After I recorded the video below I had a careful look to see if I could identify likely targets and I found two, both falling megaphone support alternate trendlines, and by the close today they would be in the 2728 and 2720 areas respectively. If ES trends down today, which I was talking about as a strong probability on the premarket video below, and is looking increasingly likely at the time of writing, then the target for this move is likely to be one of those trendlines. (more…)
An Uncertain Decline Is Often A Bull Flag Forming
The SPX 60min RSI 14 sell signal that fixed early this week is still open, there is another on NDX and one is brewing on RUT. Furthermore there are now possible daily sell signals brewing on both NDX and RUT, and if SPX retests the June high then there will also be one brewing on SPX.
Is SPX going to retest the June high? Most likely yes. I was talking about the possibility of that happening in the video below, and on the SPX 15min chart below that there is a double top setup that is acting very strangely until you see that it is actually a perfect bull flag channel that is in fact not acting strangely at all. When that breaks up SPX should retest the high and at that stage we might have a genuine double top setup.
One thing I’d mention though is that the next cycle low window is around 25th June. The longer SPX takes to top here, the shorter and likely shallower this retracement is likely to be. The current possible double top forming now would look for the 2750-60 area, and I’d note that rising support from the early May low would be in the right area in that timeframe.
I’ve left the DX section in today as it’s being very interesting today. Partial Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ, TF & DX: (more…)
Downside Potential Here
SPX is at a potentially significant inflection point here, with a setup for a possible sharp retracement. SPX has broken down from a short term rising wedge and formed a possible double top. A possible hourly RSI 14 sell signal is brewing and the obvious first downside target on SPX in the event of a significant reversal here would be channel support in the 2740 area. We are looking for a sharp retracement soon and it could well start here.
Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD: (more…)
Filling The Island Top Gap – Take Three
We did our monthly free public Chart Chat yesterday and, if you missed that, you can see the recording posted on our June Free Webinars page.
ES/SPX has been forming a likely large bull flag over most of the last month, and the flag pattern is the unusual and very poorly named broadening formation, right angled and descending. I’m trying to think of a catchier name.
Be that as it may I like these patterns and, on ES overnight, that pattern has been starting to break up. The full target would be in the 2800-5 area, though we thinking we might see a retracement/backtest from the 2765-75 area, if the island top gap from the March high into 2752.021 can now finally be filled. Our expectation is that this gap should be filled today.
Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
Testing Double Top Support
Interesting setup on SPX here as the holiday week begins. SPX is now testing the larger double top support that I was looking at last week and has broken slightly below double top support at the open. From here there are only two high probability options.
The first option is that SPX continues down towards the double top target in the 2661.50 area. A sustained break below 2690 from here likely seals that for the bears. The second option here is that the double top fails and rejects at the break. That’s what I would call a Janus bull flag setup, and the target would be a full retest of the May high at 2742.24. A strong break back over weekly pivot on SPX at 2723.65 likely seals this for the bulls, though by that stage SPX would be most of the way back to 2742.24 of course. As a general rule I’d expect to see one or the other target reached this week.
Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD: (more…)
Still Minding The Gap
SPX is still testing the open island top gap from the March rally high, and that has been solid resistance so far. My lean is that SPX will likely break up through that within a day or two, but there is now a clear alternate downside scenario shown on the SPX hourly chart below. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: