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I was saying yesterday that I was expecting the decision in yesterday’s inflection point to be made fairly quickly and so it was. The smaller NDX H&S pattern I showed broke down at the open this morning and has now made target.
I haven’t written a post since 1st September as I’ve been immersed in divorce paperwork again. (Note from Tim: again, this post is from Jack, not me; I’m not going through a divorce. As you might suspect, any woman who gets involved with me is greeted with 24 hours of delight and sunshine every day. I ask that you not confirm this, as it is surely self-evident. Thank you. I now return you to Mr. Springheel) That should all be finished within a few days, and that should be the last serious work that needs to be done in my quest to be single again, which will be a relief. This should therefore be the last long gap in my posts.
In my last post I was talking about the likely retracement to the mean move that I was expecting to see soon, and we have seen that move. The level I am using for that, the 45dma, is currently at 4462 and SPX is backtesting that from below at the moment, having delivered one of the only four retracements in the last eighteen months to deliver a retracement significantly below that.
I was looking at the tests of the main resistance trendlines on SPX and ES on Monday, and at the possibility that SPX might turn down there. Instead it broke through, dragged upward by tech stocks, and the very nice daily RSI 5 divergence on both SPX and NDX was lost.
On both SPX and ES, price is now slightly above the main resistance trendlines in what may be a bearish overthrow.
I’ve been looking at the resistance trendlines on ES and SPX over my last few posts, and the scenario I was looking at in my post on Friday 6th August that we may be seeing the start of a retracement here that could deliver a 3800 area retest. I was saying that we might well see more highs before that main move started and we’ve seen that.
One resistance trendline that I wasn’t looking at was the rising wedge resistance trendline that has developed over recent weeks and ES is testing that too. Possible daily RSI 5 sell signals are now brewing on ES, SPX and NDX.
I was saying in my post last Thursday that if support was found at the levels being tested then, the next target within the rising wedge would be wedge resistance in the 4500 area, and well, here we are.
Now we are back at the daily upper band, and testing a wedge resistance trendline that has already held several times. The chances are that SPX is making another high here, setting up a pattern that can take us lower again than the last decline, so that is what I’ll be looking at today.
In terms of the wedge itself, it is high quality, with an excellent resistance trendline that is unlikely to be broken significantly unless we are going to see a bearish overthrow, not uncommon at a significant high on wedges, or unless the wedge breaks up with a target in the 6800 area which sounds crazy, but really the market went through crazy without a backward glance a while back so it can’t be ruled out altogether.