Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Divergent Behavior

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Below is an interesting chart showing, in blue, the S&P 500, and in black, the FR:T10Y2Y (10 year interest rates minus the two year). We’re only dealing with a sample size of three here, but I at least wanted to illustrate what happened in prior instances at these levels where the rate spread got to a certain depth. I’ll also point out that in 2007, it took a few months for any kind of bear market to take hold, even after the signal (if it IS a signal):

Silver & Gold to Inform Dr. Copper and so, the Macro

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They call copper the metal with the Ph.D. in Economics. But these days Doctor Copper is little more than a quack in that regard, taking a cue from the metals whose interplay will be critical to deciding the coming macro for 2020 and the run up to the next US election. Thus, they are the 3 Metallic Amigos, riding together but providing different signals at different times (this being, you will have to put up with the odd shtick from time to time).

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