Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
If you want to create a liquidity crisis in U.S. equity markets, then go ahead…adopt and enact the ideological measures put forth in that deal/bill. If you want to create an economic crisis, in America, as well as the rest of the world, then go ahead…adopt and enact the ideological measures put forth in that deal/bill. Foreign and domestic investment in the U.S. will disappear. (more…)
As in January of 2013 (ahead of an economic up cycle) and Q4
2017-Q1 2018 (ahead of an economic ripple that began in 2018) the
Semiconductor sector and in particular its Semi Equipment sub-sector are
front and center in forming our analysis about coming events. Excerpted
from the January 20th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 535…
Semiconductor Sector – Watch the Early Bird in 2019
This one is special for me. I started my work life many moons ago as a
participant with the Semi sector [circa 1983-1993], painfully learning
first hand how violent the cyclical turns can be. Dialing ahead a couple
decades, in January of 2013 NFTRH began a narrative that saw the then
up-turning Semi Equipment bookings (this data is unfortunately no longer
published) lead the sector, general manufacturing and eventually the
whole raft of components that make up the economy into a cyclical
On this quiet market holiday, I thought I’d share a few economic- and rate-related SlopeCharts for a change. We begin with the unemployment rate which, as you can plainly see, has been on an incredibly powerful and consistent slide downward, far more impressive than any other time in this data stream’s history.
Chinese Communist dynasty emperor Xi knows they’ve blown the biggest bubble in the history of humankind. All measures being taken by Communists are to ensure the survival of the party when this bubble eventually pops. Dynastic succession in China usually involves the losers’ entrails being paraded around Tiananmen square (or other significant public gathering place), so this is about survival. Politics, economics and ideology are secondary.
The Communist dynasty knows that the bubble will pop and they will lose the mandate of heaven (economic prosperity). The only way they can stay in power is if the blame can be diverted. Trump is heaven’s gift to the Communist dynasty. EVERYTHING can be blamed on Trump. The Communist dynasty will play the nationalism card – having been attacked by Trump. The Chinese will rally around this. Trade was forced on China (Most Favored Nation was a punitive trade measure against China by the western powers) and now Trump is going back against trade treaties designed to humiliate China since the Boxer Rebellion. (more…)
I have been getting such a chuckle from the market of late.
As the market made its way down to our 2600 target region towards the end of October, more and more market participants and analysts became more and more bearish. In fact, the bearishness was palpable as we approached 2600SPX.
However, our analysis suggested that the market should bottom in the 2600SPX region, and begin a corrective rally, which then topped at 2815SPX.
But, the day after the market began a strong rally off the 2603SPX level, many were quite fearful that Oct. 31 would provide us with a market crash. You see, that was the day that a quantitative tightening was scheduled by the Federal Reserve.
Yet, that day provided us with a 50-point rally. Yes, you heard me right. And, again, market participants and analysts were looking the wrong way in a big way due to their fundamental beliefs about what drives the stock market.
Let’s take an in-day snapshot of gold vs. several key competitors (for your investment dollars/euros/yen, etc.) and check the progress in turning the macro from risk ‘on’ to risk ‘off’, cyclical to counter-cyclical.
Gold/Commodities motors along above the SMA 200. The move has been hysterical, and thus looks impulsive. That could mean something as we look back in hindsight one day.