Reflecting back on my “Four Tints” from early this morning, I had pointed out this bullish setup:
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Hey, MO!
Altria Group – – cynically renamed to conceal their actual identity as a manufacturer of cancer-causing tobacco products – – has been a short I’ve recommended (along with fellow creator-of-human-misery PM) for quite some time. Its head and shoulders pattern is absolutely massive, and, believe it or not, my target price is $32 – – basically a financial catastrophe. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys, either.
Nostradamus
Back on December 26th, I did a premium post called A Musing which stated three things:
- I had dumped almost all my positions;
- I anticipated a rally to 2600;
- the empty-headed optimism of the new year, coupled with trade talks scheduled for the week of January 7th, would provide the necessary fuel for the market to take on what, back on the 26th, seemed like an impossibly swift ascent.
If – – and I repeat, if – – 2600 turns out to be the turning point, the post will have to go down as genius-level in terms of its prescience, accuracy, and clairvoyance (which will make the fact I have traded like a goddamned moron since then less damaging). Today we peaked just a couple of points beneath that level – literally 99.3% of the way there – so if we slip from here, good God, that will be breathtaking.
(more…)Pearls Before Swine
Some of you may have heard of the subreddit known as WallStreetBets (WSB), which is basically a forum on reddit where a bunch of inexperienced twenty-somethings gamble away their meager savings by “trading” on the Robinhood platform and sharing their collapsing equity graphs, which they refer to as “loss porn.” It’s kind of a psychotic place for beginning degenerate gamblers to commiserate.
I find the site kind of amusing, and in the spirit of contribution, I offered up the same chart on their site as I did here on Slope (this is from the start of December). I titled the chart “You Are Here”:
Apron Strings
I have been nothing but pessimistic about Blue Apron, such as with this post from early this year (which I considered good enough to include in my Silicon Valley Babble On book). Let’s just say my snarky feelings about this organization seem to have been well-founded. New lifetime low, and now a penny stock:
An Analysis of Past Ideas
UPDATE: The original post is below, but in an amazing “duh” moment, I realized how easy it would be to automatically have the latest stock prices in the spreadsheet, so I modified it to show those. After doing so, the profit results improved by over 30% (as of this writing). I frankly can’t believe I was so dim that I hand-entered the quotes originally, but the bottom line is that the profits were better than originally reported.
From time to time, people ask if I have some kind of spreadsheet that tracks the results of my various ideas. Over the many, many years this website has been around, I’ve never done so, but I decided to take an afternoon to compile an analysis of a couple of “Premium” videos I did early in October 2018. Although these videos were behind a paywall, you can view video one and video two freely now.
I entered all these ideas into a publicly-viewable spreadsheet, which shows each symbol, its closing price on October 5th (when I made the videos), and its closing price seven weeks later (when I did the analysis). They were all short ideas, and the results speak for themselves.
Following Up on XME
I haven’t shut up about XME for weeks, and with good reason. It’s one of the clean analogs I’ve ever seen, and the pattern we’ve been watching has been unfolding beautifully.
