Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Well, I’ll shut up about the oil gap and turn my attention to something even more important: bonds. Treasury bonds have been roaring higher all week, and that’s not great for me, because my entire options portfolio is oriented toward stronger interest rates. (IYR, TLT, XLU). Relief may be at hand, however. The gap at 120.28 is powerful, and my view is that within a month from now, we’ll have pushed below even the lows we saw earlier in May.
Well, the past couple of weeks all by themselves have played havoc with bulls and bears alike. Big drops and big recoveries have taken place back to back, and as I am typing this on Thursday evening, the ‘on again/off again’ Korea Peace Lovefest is back “on.” Over a span of two weeks, the market has been absolutely trapped inside a relatively tiny 35 point range.
In all this crazy madness, the bulls have never dropped the ball. Indeed, as we approach the end of the fifth month of this year, it seems quite clear the bulls remain absolutely and fully in control. Observe the Dow Composite and how the moving averages have been silky smooth without a single crossover. (more…)
Given the crazy moves interest rates have been making lately, I thought we’d check in on my trio of bearish positions (by way of being long January 2019 in-the-money put options). Below are all three, with an arrow marking my “uh-oh” spot when things would turn wrong. So far, they haven’t, but I’m wringing my hands a bit more than I used to. First there is the Dow 15 Utilities:
My best percentage gainer today is Whirlpool, which I mentioned here as a short recently. It’s down over 7%.