Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Last week I was talking about a likely modest rally coming, which we have seen, and then a low retest, which we have not yet seen but I’m expecting to see this week.
After that I’m thinking we may well see a much larger rally on SPX, and one thing I was waiting to see before that rally was decent positive divergence on the weekly RSI 5, which we now have.
If we do see that larger rally, then I’d be looking for a test, and perhaps a break, of main downtrend resistance, which is at the weekly middle band, now at 4209.(more…)
I wanted to talk a bit this morning about big highs and lows on SPX. Obviously the economy may well be going into recession, interest rates will likely rise a lot further over coming years, and that has to happen really because examples in history where inflation has been brought under control without interest rates higher than that inflation are rare. The world is also particularly vulnerable to high interest rates because after so many years of very low interest rates, levels of both public and private debt are extremely high, and rising interest rates over time will likely force many people, companies and governments into defaulting on their debt. It is going to be rough.(more…)
SPX broke down and has retested the retracement low, as have NDX and Dow as well, but not yet IWM. This brings SPX and the other US indices to the key inflection point this year, where we see whether the move so far this year has been the formation of large bull flags setting up retests of the all time highs, or whether US indices are going to break down further directly.
What we have on the bull side here are possible buy signals now brewing on the weekly chart and clear high quality bull flags formed on SPX and Dow particularly, as well as on many other individual stocks and ETFs of course. On the bear side we have the worsening economy, rising interest rates and embedded inflation that the Fed are now admitting is not transitory. I would point out though that a retest of the all time highs might well not be a bullish development, as that might make the second highs on double tops large enough to then potentially retrace most or even all of the gains made since the 2020 low.(more…)
SPX has been consolidating for a few days now, and generally speaking a consolidation like this leans bullish. I gave the ideal target for this rally at the weekly middle band and that remains the case in my view. That is now in the 4294 area.
SPX weekly chart:(more…)