Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Next Inflection Points

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In my post ‘Important Support Breaks’ on 2nd May, as SPX was starting to break down after the new all time high, I was talking about the ideal retracement target at the possible H&S neckline in the 2722 March low area. SPX bottomed out yesterday at 2728 and in practical terms that target area I gave has been hit. The low from there was decent and on the chart below I have inset the tweet I put on our (subscriber only) twitter feed just after that low calling the possible nested double bottom setup with an overall target in the 2799 area, and obviously that has been playing out since and is almost at target.

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Choices, Choices

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One way of looking at markets is as a succession of inflection points or probability forks, at which there are generally a higher and lower probability option which, once taken, take the markets to the next in that series, either eliminating or significantly changing the paths not taken at that inflection point.

We’ve been looking for one of those inflection points to happen at about this time, and in about this area, and that is likely to be resolved over the coming week, so in this Memorial Day post I’ll be looking at that and what the shorter and longer term implications of the direction taken from that on SPX.

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Three Day Rule Target At 2801 Retest

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SPX broke back over the 5dma last Thursday and that put SPX back on the Three Day Rule, which is that after a decline of more than 2% followed by a break back over the 5dma, then SPX must hold above the 5dma the next two daily closes. If SPX fails to manage that then the retracement low (2801) should be retested before the initial high before the decline (all time high). The close on the third day on Monday was a clear break back below the 5dma. That low retest would normally be soon after the break and this a very strong stat, so I am looking for that 2801 retest.

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X Marks The (Ideal) Spot

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Before the open this morning I was cautiously predicting that ES would rally today to a higher high than yesterday, ideally failing today at a high in the 2865-9 area. As it happened the low of the day was happening at the time on ES, slightly before the RTH open, and ES is now testing yesterday’s high. So far, so good.

The scenario I was looking at then and now was a modest higher low and then a modest higher high to form a bear flag channel into a test of declining resistance from the highs on SPX. I have tentatively marked an X on the SPX 5min chart the ideal time and level for SPX to top out today and we’ll whether that delivers exactly in the next hour or so. If not there is some wiggle room.

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