Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I was reading a very interesting article yesterday on the progress of COVID-19 and it was interesting not so much because of what was said, as for the decent quality numbers that it was quoting on COVID-19 exposures in the US population, and the fatality rate from the now decently sized statistical sample of exposed population and consequent deaths. In summary about 5% to 8% of the US population has now been exposed and are showing antibodies, and the death rate so far, subject to some likely attribution of deaths to other causes, is coming through at between 0.49% to 0.78% of those exposed. If you’d like to see the source article you can see that here.
If you haven’t seen it before I’ll be referring back to my 20th March post ‘A Short History Of Superflu Pandemics‘ and so I’m linking back to that for reference.
I was asked an interesting question yesterday in our monthly free public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net, and I’d like to talk a bit about that before I start looking at markets today. The question was whether, given that market prices reflect everything that is currently known at the moment about that market, then how can that price be mistaken? My reply was that if that was truly the case then the price of tulips in January 1637 (just before that bubble burst) would have been equally justifiable and that, further, if that was really true there would be no speculative bubbles, which clearly there are on a regular basis.
Something I didn’t add, and should have, is that while statements like this are often thought of as economic rules or even laws, what they are in truth is just working assumptions that contain enough truth that economic models can be built using them that will have some relevance in modelling the behavior of a market that is infinitely more complex than that model.
Further to my post of June 29, the jaw of the William’s Alligator has shut and two of the three moving averages (each offset into the future) have re-crossed and turned up, as shown on the following SPX daily chart.
As well, the Awesome Oscillator has flipped above the zero level.
Both of these are hinting that further buying may be in store…I’d need to see the third moving average turn up to confirm potential strength.
However, the Balance of Power is still with the sellers, albeit somewhat tepid, so, unless we see this flip to the buyers on this timeframe, we may be in for a bit more weakness before we see sustained buying resume.
Further to my post of June 21 with respect to the SPX, I’d just mention that the three moving averages (each offset into the future) forming the Williams Alligator on its counterpart S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index (ES) have all crossed to the downside, as shown on the following daily chart.
As well, the Awesome Oscillator has just turned negative in Sunday’s overnight trading.
Both of these are signalling potential further weakness ahead.
Just a reminder before I get started that we are running our July 4th sale at theartofchart.net at the moment and that will be running until the end of next week. For the duration of the sale annual memberships are available for the price of only eight months at the monthly rate rather than the usual ten and as ever with all our memberships, the membership rate will remain the same with no price rises for as long as the subscription is maintained. If you are interested then you can find the sale page here.On to the markets. I was writing last week about the Janus (Bull) Flag targets at retests of the June highs on SPX, NDX, RTY and INDU and I was noting that NDX would likely reach that target first (done) and would then likely retest a major resistance trendline just above there afterwards (retested) and that the upswing on equities might fail there (possibly happening). Here is that updated NDX weekly chart. NDX weekly chart: