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Is the S&P 500 (SPX) on the verge of a sustained upside breakout as it pushes through multiple prior failed rally peaks just above 2800? This week should provide some answers.
Actually, a sustained climb above 2832 (on a closing basis) also will answer the question we have been asking in these weekly articles for the past four weeks: Will the powerful advance from the Dec 26 low at 2346.58 be stymied in the 2775 to 2832 resistance zone?
This zone is the area that measures 76.4% of the entire prior Sep-Dec correction — what we’re calling the “Fibonacci Recovery Price Resistance Zone” — and in the last 20 trading days the SPX has probed but failed to hurdle the upper boundary (2832) of this zone no less than five times!
Last Friday I was saying that my preferred scenario on SPX would deliver a marginal new rally high to make the second high of a double top to then take SPX back into the 2600-50 area. We have seen that marginal higher high, the middle of this cycle high window is today, and the stats for next week lean significantly bearish. If everything keeps going to plan then SPX is about to reverse down here and this high may be the 2019 high, though I’m still wondering about a possible ATH retest after the next big low window in June.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday. In spite of another everything-is-green nighttime session, I continue to beat my XLF drum, as I consider it a critically important chart to track. This ETF, which represents financial stocks, continues to grind its way through what I contend is a momentous (albeit glacially-slow) topping pattern.
I was looking at the likely reversal back up on Friday morning and obviously we have seen that. ES/SPX have since broken back strongly over the multiple resistance levels in the 2660-70 area, weekly and monthly pivots, daily middle band 5dma and 50 hour MA. So now what?
Well in the short term a retracement seems likely and in my premarket video this morning at theartofchart.net I was projecting an ideal path of a higher high (over 2799 ES Jun) setting up a possible 60min sell signal on ES. Ideally ES would then retrace back to the monthly pivot at 2765 ES (2760 SPX) before either breaking back down through that into lower lows, or (more likely) finding support and retesting the rally highs in what would probably be the second high of a double top setting up a larger retracement into the low 2600s.
I’m a happy Netflix subscriber (again, check out Synecdoche, recently released there) but I think the stock is comically overpriced. Looking at the PSAR indicator, it recently “flipped bearish” after a very successful PSAR bull run.
We just finished up quite an interesting week. It began extremely strong, but basically faded itself all week long. Many key ETFs saw their PSARs (which you can read about here) flip from bullish to bearish. Such as the Dow Industrials “diamonds”:
Everything that I was looking at on Wednesday has delivered except that SPX has not quite yet reached the H&S target at 2720. The daily RSI 5/NYMO sell signal fixed and reached target, the hourly sell signals on SPX and RUT both made target, and while SPX might need another marginal lower low to reached that 2720 target, this is the right area to see this retracement low, and it could already be in. So what now?