Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Gold/Silver Ratio: Rising for a Month Now

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Well, look who is sporting a bullish looking pattern on its daily chart. It’s probably NFTRH‘s most watched indicator outside of the T Bond Continuum.

As you can see, a rising Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) attended the market stock market disturbances in February and March and a declining GSR has attended the relief, i.e. the expected ‘top-test’ by the S&P 500 that has ground on since roughly the same time that GSR topped in late March.

The GSR has spent a lot of the post-financial crisis era in dysfunction mode, but so far in 2018 it is working as we’d normally expect; it rises with market liquidity contraction and declines with risk ‘on’ and an absence of liquidity events.

So, is that indeed a bull pattern? Can we assign such TA to a ratio as opposed to a stock or an index? Valid questions, but all things being equal stock and/or commodity bulls would probably rather not see a pattern like that. What can’t be argued is that gold’s ratio to silver has been increasing for a month now. (more…)

Baby Steps

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I was expecting a modest retracement in my last post and we have seen one. I was looking at the setup on the premarket video today and there is a probable short term low here testing support at the ES weekly pivot, open gap support on SPX and the 50 hour MA. We should see a short term higher high next and that will likely be setting up a larger retracement to follow. That’s working out so far.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ:

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A Macro (Amigos) Update for Mid-Summer

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You have better things to do than read droning macro analysis or long, drawn out investment theses. It is a weekend in the dead of summer and for that reason we go easy this week; real easy.

The 3 Amigos are here to simply say that things are as they have been, with Amigo #2 (long-term yields) getting home and pulling back on cue, and the other two (SPX/Gold ratio & Yield Curve) still in process and indicating risk ‘on’ and ‘boom on’, respectively.

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Just One Wafer Thin Retracement Monsieur

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SPX has now broken above both the June and March highs, and should be on the way back to retest the all time high. Short term though we are looking for a modest retracement before the next leg up. The short term ES channel support that I was looking at in the premarket video has now broken, the overnight high is being retested and there is a lot of negative RSI divergence. This retracement should be starting soon and last into the first half of next week. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ: (more…)

Onward and Upward

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My apologies for the intermittent posts lately. As some of you will know, it has been very busy at theartofchart.net recently with the launch of a major new service for us on 25th June, Paragon Options, a directional options service trading options on futures. We’ve put a lot of work into developing and launching this service, which as far as we are aware is entirely unique, trading options on the wide range of futures and forex instruments we cover in our other services. Almost all or all other options services focus on stocks and ETFs. The first month is going well, up about 5% in the first two weeks and two days so far, and workload should be easing off a bit soon, but it has been very busy. My posting schedule should be back to normal soon.

Since I last posted that the retracement low was likely in, SPX formed a decent quality IHS and that has broken up and reached target at a retest of the June high. In the short term ES/SPX is retracing and ideally we’d like to see a low made today or tomorrow in the 2760-5 ES area before this uptrend resumes. (more…)

10th Year U.S. Bull Market Run vs. ‘Summer Swoon’

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Further to my post of March 10, we may be seeing the beginnings of a 10th year bull run, inasmuch as volatility of the SPXNDX, and RUT has been attempting to stabilize recently.

However, this attempt is not yet a slam dunk. As noted on the following daily ratio charts of the SPX:VIXNDX:VXN, and RUT:RVX, I’m still waiting for:

SPX:VIX ratio: a bullish crossover of the 50 MA above the 200 MA to form a Golden Cross

NDX:VXN ratio:  a bullish crossover of the PMO technical indicator

RUT:RVX ratio: a bullish crossover of the PMO technical indicator

All other technical indicators must continue to hold their present bullish formations, and price needs to hold above their respective major support levels, namely: (more…)

‘Summer Swoon’ In Store For Major Indices?

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As shown on the daily chart below, a moving average “Death Cross” has formed on the World Market Index. It closed out Q2 2018 just above horizontal price support and below trendline support, as well as below both moving averages.

All three technical indicators are in negative territory, hinting of further weakness ahead, particularly if price drops and holds below 1950 on accelerating RSI, MACD and PMO declines.

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The Retracement Low Is (Probably) In

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We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday. If you’d like to attend you can sign up for that on our July Free Webinars page.

SPX reached the ideal 2680-2700 retracement low range and has rallied strongly from there with a 60min RSI 14 buy signal fixing this morning. The low isn’t definitely in yet, with resistance at the 50 hour MA and daily middle band above in the 2737 and 2756 areas respectively, but this is a very strong candidate low, with a decent double bottom setup here meaning that there would be no need to retest the low as part of a bottoming process. We’ll see how that goes. (more…)

Minding The Gap

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We are doing the monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday. If you’d like to attend then you can register for that on our July Free Webinars page. We are also running our annual July 4th weekend sale over the next few days, so over that period annual memberships purchased have four free months rather than the usual two. As with all our memberships, as long as the subscription is continuous, the subscription price will never be increased in the future.

After a slow start SPX is coming into the ideal low area 2680-2700 that Stan has been calling for the last few weeks. SPX is in the low window and we think that a low this week is likely. (more…)

3 Amigos (SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve) Updated

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It has been a while since we’ve had a 3 Amigos update because a) Italy and global tariffs noise aside, nothing much has changed with the macro and b) I felt my ‘image-based metaphorical content to straight content’ ratio was getting a little excessive. So I gave it a rest.

Now it is time again for an update of these important macro riders in order to touch base with their signals. As always, I’ll remind you that there is much more to the macro market backdrop that NFTRH manages on an ongoing basis, but these three are important.

The quick answer is that only Amigo #2 (long-term yields on a rise to our preset limits) has reached destination. I marked up the graphic as he was approaching our targets.

Note: The monthly charts driving the view that current trends remain intact can be considered big, dumb (i.e. not overly sensitive) indicators. Shorter-term views of these and other indicators can be used to gauge signs of oncoming changes. As one example, if daily SPX/Gold were to take a hard plunge on any given day or week (as was the case in February and March) we’d pay close attention as we did then before the larger trends ultimately took over again.

Amigo #1: Gold vs. the S&P 500 (or stock markets in general)

The theme for this Amigo is that the stock market (cyclical, risk ‘on’) has been trending up vs. gold (counter-cyclical, risk ‘off’) since 2011 in order to close out the negative cycle that completed that year. (more…)