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Strip away everything you can. Get rid of the trendlines. Remove the retracement patterns. Delete the tints. Even get rid of the price data itself! Just leave in place a trio of exponential moving averages: 50, 100, and 200. Draw your own conclusions. I’ve certainly drawn mine.
I had been reading on and off for a month or so that ChatGPT had been forecasting a market crash on the Ides of March this year, and so was watching that with very mild interest yesterday to see whether this latest claimant to the Nostradamus throne might have any luck, but the day passed without a crash as expected. Predicting apocalypse is a famously tricky endeavour. Better luck next time I guess.
My usual posts would focus on a specific direction in the market (and for about a year now, most of the time, that direction was down). But after today, I honestly have no clue where we go. From a strictly technical perspective the charts have been very muddied with the action this week. I’ll go into this first and discuss fundamental changes next.
After peaking on Groundhog Day (naturally………) the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average has roared back into Bear Mode, thank God.
I was saying on Wednesday that the decent looking bullish setup was still there, but in the light of the Fed Chairman’s candid comments about future policy over the last few days a significant drive higher was looking improbable. I was looking for a test of weekly pivot at 4007 and then a fail there if we were going to see the bull scenario fail. SPX made it back to 4017 and failed hard, so the bull scenario, while not quite entirely dead, is now looking increasingly unlikely.
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