Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Looking For A Retracement Low

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Since I was writing on Friday the bull flag megaphone has broken up, a rising wedge formed on ES into yesterday’s high and then that wedge broke down with the obvious target at a retest of the retracement low. So far however this has delivered higher lows on SPX and ES, and ES is again testing key resistance at the weekly pivot at 2884. On a break and conversion of WP the obvious read would be that the next leg up has started, although ………

Partial Premarket Video from – Update on ES, NQ:


Forming The Bull Flag

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Apologies for the lack of updates this week. I’ve been reorganising my office which has been time-consuming though very satisfying. The video below is the full premarket video that I do every morning at for subscribers and there are quite a few charts at very interesting stages, most definitely including SPX/ES here.

When I was showing the SPX 15min chart in the video I was saying that ideally there would be an early rally today into the mid-2880s to test bull flag megaphone resistance, before a reversal back down towards bull flag megaphone support, now in the 2858 area. That trendline is declining at about 7.5 handles per day so will likely be in the 2854 area by the end of the session.

Full Premarket Video from – Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:


One Month Closes And Another One Opens

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SPX has made a possible short term high a couple of days ago, but needs to show us more on Tuesday than a retracement to test obvious support at the 50 hour MA, currently in the 2890 area. If that can be broken, and the open gap below it filled, then there is a decent shot here at seeing a retracement into rising support from the late June low, currently in the 2840 area, to confirm the rising wedge from there within the overall rising channel from the overall rising channel from the early May low.

This is the equity index section of my premarket video for this morning which talks more about the evolving setup here. Partial Premarket Video from – Update on ES, NQ:


Precious Metals, Commodities, US & Global Stocks

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A general review of the current status across different asset markets. This is not comprehensive, forward-looking analysis as per NFTRH, but it is an up to the minute summary (as of Friday afternoon).

Precious Metals

Gold, silver and gold stock indexes/ETFs made what I had thought were bear flags yesterday, but today’s reversal painted them as short-term bounce patterns (‘W’ with a higher low in the miners and silver).

This chart of gold shows a flag breakdown, whipsaw and new closing high for the short-term move. As we’ve noted for weeks now, the Commitments of Traders (CoT) is in a contrary bullish alignment with large Specs all but wrung out of the market (they were fleeced again; don’t believe hype about their increased shorting being some sort of conspiracy). All in all, not bad for the relic. The bounce lives on. (more…)

Nine-Year U.S. Bull Market Money Flow

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The first three of the following graphs depict percentages gained for the Major U.S. Indices during three time periods, namely:

  • since March 6, 2009 (the bottom of the 2008/09 financial crisis),
  • since November 8, 2016 (the Presidential election), and
  • year-to-date.

Generally, traders/investors have favoured technology, small-cap, and transportation indices over the large-cap and utilities indices…indicating a stronger preference for risk over value, which continues to today.


Be Here Now

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COMPLETELY unrelated remark by Tim – – I never thought I’d be able to say this, but sales of my new book this weekend exceeded the worldwide gross of Kevin Spacey’s new movie. 

That was an unsatisfyingly fast low last week with none of the usual bottoming signals, but it was a higher low against the early August low, and the break under the daily middle band on Wednesday was firmly rejected on Thursday and confirmed on Friday, with a decent quality bull flag channel on ES breaking up on Friday, so that flag has a minimum target at a retest of the previous high at 2863.43 SPX, and that puts SPX within easy striking distance of the all time high at 2872.87.

Main support on SPX is at the daily middle band now at 2835, supported by the 50 hour MA now at 2837, and the new ES weekly pivot at 2837.

Full Premarket Video from – Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD: (more…)

A World Financial Battle Approaches

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The first three ratio charts show:

  1. the U.S. Financial ETF (XLF) compared with the SPX,
  2. the European Financial ETF (EUFN) compared with the STOX50, and
  3. the Chinese Financial ETF (GXC) compared with the SSEC.

Each one’s Financial ETF is weaker than its country’s major index, and in the case of the EUFN and GXC ratios, are sitting at a major support level, while the XLF ratio is approaching major support.


Two Largest QQQ Components Compromised? 

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Last week, I opined a technical piece entitled, ” Momentum Divergences Flashing Warnings Signs for QQQ & FAANG Stocks,” which highlighted the near- and intermediate-term divergences that were and still are developing in the big-cap technology sector.

Today I follow up with a look under the hood and the technical set ups in Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), the two largest components of the NDX-100 and QQQ.

AAPL has been perched above the upper boundary line (204.50) of its February-August bullish channel for almost two weeks, which, among other things, is a sign of excellent relative strength but also could be a sign of approaching upside exhaustion. That said, as long as AAPL remains above key near-term support from 205.20 down to 204.30, let’s consider its post-earnings action as a sign of excellent relative strength. (more…)

The Wheels On The Bus Go Round and Round

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An unsettled open on ES last night with more rumblings from Turkey and lower lows on ES and NQ. I was asked before the open whether I thought there was a serious risk of the wheels coming off on SPX with a 5% or so retracement directly from here, and I replied that I thought that the risk was low, though possible as always.

There are four important support levels below, all shown on the SPX 60min chart. The first is the short term rising wedge support trendline at Friday’s low, supported by the daily middle band. As long as that holds the obvious next target is wedge resistance in the 2870 area. If that should break then there is strong established support in the 2800 area, which would also be the 38.2% retracement of the rising wedge. If 2800 was to break that could be a significant bearish break, but there would still be main channel support, currently in the 2765 area.

On the upside resistance is at the the ES weekly pivot at 2842 and the 50 hour MA on SPX, currently at 2845 and resistance so far both on Friday and today, then the open gap from 2853.58 that would need to be filled. After that the way would be clear for SPX to head back to short term wedge resistance and a likely test of the all time high at 2872.87. (more…)