Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Possible Path For Crypto into October

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I’ve been having a good look at the longer term correlation between Crypto & equity indices and it is a strong one that has been impressively consistent over the last 8 years. The chart below just covers the last five years of SPX vs BTUSD (Bitcoin) but you can see that the upswings and downswings tend to be correlated, and going back to 2016 the big highs on both are decently matched, with a strong tendency for Crypto to turn down before equities do.

I was asked a couple of weeks ago whether this might be happening again, with Crypto having topped a few months ago and SPX, NDX and Dow all looking as though a significant high might be close. I’ve looked at that and would say that it would be more typical for the two highs to be within a month of each other, though there is a possibly comparable period as BTCUSD was forming a bull flag for ten months or so in 2019-20 with the C wave down during the 2020 COVID crash.

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TA Over-Exposure

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Today legions of chartists ply their trade with ever fancier charts and (in my opinion) ever more erratic results

I’ll begin this post by noting that I love charts. I began my market journey using charts, and I have noted over the years that technical analysis is a great tool to have in a trader’s or investor’s tool box. So many times over the years has an existing trend kept me patient despite a shorter-term move to the contrary. So many times have breakdowns of technical parameters kept me from catastrophic losses, or holds of said parameters kept me in the game for large profits. In short, I am one of these guys…

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General Mayhem

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Last week was good from end to end (in spite of a stupid holiday robbing us of Monday – – but let’s be fair, holidays like Labor Day can’t be as respected and important as Juneteenth). Yesterday was also good. Today as well. I’m starting to get nervous at all this goodness.

One of my many short ideas which is thriving is General Motors (GM, duh) whose puts, sadly, I sold at a nice profit last week for one and only one reason: because they expire in November. Dumb, huh? But I went into some kind of silly purification ritual in which I didn’t want anything expiring this year.

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