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For me, this market has become an endurance contest, as we muddle through this brutal counter-trend rally. This post has a specific theme: relatively young stocks which had a horrid 2022 but bounced strongly in recent weeks. However, and this is what gains this admission to this post, they seem to have stalled, having executed the easy parts of their bounce. I wouldn’t touch any of these with a ten foot pole, but they’re interesting to watch.
The possible H&S I was looking at on Friday morning didn’t form and the move to retest the prior high has done some interesting technical damage to the bear case, so I wanted to have a look at that this morning.
The SPX hourly chart below shows the break over declining resistance from the all time high, which held perfectly at the December highs and established a high quality three touch resistance trendline.
On the bigger picture there is also a decent case that a falling wedge has formed from the all time high on SPX that could be a bull flag. That flag wedge would have underthrown bullishly at the October low and this might therefore be the start of a break up towards a possible retest of the all time high.
(more…)The face-punching of the beleaguered bears continues, as the bulls have been more-or-less running the show since June 16th of last year. More recently, since January 6th, it’s basically been a straight line up, and the NASDAQ roared above its 50% retracement level this morning.
I’m finding it difficult to get back into doing more than one post a week. I shall try hard to get two out next week. (Editor’s note: cough cough cough!)
On SPX a week ago I was looking for a reversal under declining resistance from the all time high, and ideally a decline and high retest to set up a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal. I got the first of those but not the second.
The decline from the high was too large to set up the RSI 5 sell signal and as time goes by, unless we are going to see a break of declining resistance from the all time high, a high retest is looking less likely as soon it might need to break that resistance to retest the current high.
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