The trading week we just went through resolved nothing. The steady drip, drip, drip higher that’s been in place since Christmas (yes, Christmas) continues unabated. Just look at this chart of the Dow Composite:
Strained Levels
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Unresolved
Fed Minutes day produced some intraday zaniness. I was basically “checked out” of the insanity all day long, as I chose to do something I hardly ever do, which is to stay completely out of the trading day. I was roaming the chilly streets of Cambridge, Massachusetts, glancing periodically at my iPhone to see what the ES and NQ were doing.
The market was up overall, but we are still completely unresolved. The giant unknown out there remains the Trade Talks, although every blessed day we get some kind of encouraging news about how well they are going (uh-huh). Below I show major indexes and what I consider important areas of resistance (usually horizontals, but sometimes broken trendlines).
Push, Push…
First, a warning: I’m going to be on a whirlwind across-the-country trip tomorrow, so I will probably not be as prolific as normal. In the span of 24 hours I’m going to fly across the U.S., have some meetings, and fly all the way back home. Ugh. But I wanted you to know.
Speaking of “ugh”, the markets continue to creep higher, sometimes a lot, sometimes a little. Today was one of the “little” days. The overbought indicators are very stretched, as you’ll see below, but overbought readings can stay overbought for a long time. They are by no means a guarantee of a reversal.
Edging Near Death
If there are ANY bears left out there – – and I’m having my doubts – – there’s getting to be precious little room left until there’s essentially no hope. And by “no hope” I mean “central bankers will just keep pushing this thing up year after year until it stops working, which could be decades from now.” Here are some major cash indexes and their lines in the sand:
Razor’s Edge
First off, a big thank-you to those of you who have jumped into SlopeRules. There are twenty publicly-available rulesets now, and I encourage all of you to keep adding. One chap wrote me today and said that, even in this “baby steps” version, we’ve already outpaced thinkorswim with their scripting software. I’m delighted Slopers have embraced this new feature on the site. MUCH more to come (IF you keep using it and publishing).
The market is, of course, on the edge of its seat with respect to the potential China/US trade deal. Powell has made clear by his shameless behavior he has absolutely no spine and will do anything Trump says. Powell has no morals, no ethics, and no scruples. He’s also an unabashed liar. So that’s been driving the market higher. Equities love a fraud.
Shutdown Shot Down
As proof we are in a market in which bad news is good news and good news is great news, below is the instant reaction of the ES to the news that the federal government will NOT be shutting down. Perhaps we can rally another 50 points Tuesday if we find out we are NOT going to war with Japan.
Hemmed-In
Thank heavens for SlopeRules. Were it not for this project, I would be going insane with boredom in this market. There is nothing more boring than a captured market, and boy, do we have one of those.
Below I’ve put a few key index charts, highlighting what I consider to be medium-important resistance levels. We are all waiting on our hands for The Big Uncertainties to resolve themselves. Until then, it feels like we’re in a state of suspended animation.
