Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Fed Repeats 1999 (by LZ)

By -

The 12-year cycle of animals is the most popular aspect of the Chinese zodiac. This year 2023 is one, and prior ones were in 2011, 1999, 1987 and 1975. All of these years have some relevance to this year. A lesser bear market cycle ended in 1974 (it was the nominal low, but not the inflation-adjusted low). In 1975, stocks rallied hard. They recovered almost all their losses by early 1976. The bear was caused by shockingly high inflation, similar to what was experienced last year.

The year 1987 was in the middle of a bull market, but interest rate hikes helped turn a big rally into a big crash. This seems like the least relevant of the four prior rabbits, but if the Fed started hiking again maybe not.

(more…)

The Fed-Apple Punch

By -

I would like to highlight a 27 hour period which is going to be vitally important: from 2:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, May 2nd through 5:00 p.m. EST on Thursday, May 3rd. This chunk of time commences with the communistic politburo of the FOMC doing what they do, and ends with the prima donna AAPL, which always wants to be very last to report, announcing their earnings. Considering where they are in their cycle, coupled with the shameless government’s intervention, one must wonder if some serious fireworks can finally commence at that time.