Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Elfin Ears Approaches

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Well, it only happens four times a year, so we might as well brace ourselves. It’s the king of charlatans, Jerome Powell, who will announce absolutely nothing and discuss it at great length to a waiting world. I am at the moment working hard on more SlopeRules improvements (I am fully positioned, so no need to be in front of a trading screen). See you after the dust settles with the nimrod.

Watch the Bonds

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Since worldwide equity markets have long since dispatched the importance of silliness like products, revenues, earnings, and growth – – all in favor of the endless largesse of fiat-printing central banks – – all eyes were on Mario Draghi this morning (which, if you’ve seen the man’s face, is unfortunate for all observers).

To the delight of equity bulls, Draghi is the same amoral, spineless bureaucratic creep that Jerome Powell is, so he has once again grabbed his ankles and went Full Dove. ES and NQ markets vaulted green, with the NQ in particular soaring a full 50 points above its overnight low. As of this immediate moment, ES and NQ have returned to red. I find this fascinating, similar to the way in which Trump’s declaration last night that (groan) Trade Talks Are Going Well was meant with a worldwide eye-roll.

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Did AAPL Save the Fed, or Did the Fed Save APPL?

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The upcoming week is loaded with potentially significant directional markets catalysts such as earnings from mega-cap industrial names like CAT, BA, and XOM, as well as from technology powerhouses AAPL, FB, AMZN, AMD, and QCOM. At the end of the week, the BLS is scheduled to release the December Employment Report. 

To my mind, though, the most consequential potential market-moving “events” will occur Wednesday afternoon starting at 2 PM ET, when the FOMC releases its next policy statement, and at 2:30 PM ET, when Fed Chairman Powell addresses reporters at the post-meeting press conference.  The Fed will clearly have Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s earnings news from Tuesday after the bell on its mind.

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Fed Doves Take Flight

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A ‘wild card’ segment has been added to NFTRH reports because I wanted the freedom to go out of bounds in any direction, beyond our usual areas of disciplined coverage. Last week it was a look at the Semiconductor sector.

This week it is Fed policy with a side trip down memory lane, trying once again to illustrate why today is not at all like the ZIRP era and why the post-2015 re-connect between the Fed Funds rate and the stock market does not bode well for stocks, assuming the Fed really is going soft.

Excerpted from tomorrow’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, which will also include loads of actionable analysis along with the more theoretical stuff below…

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