Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Testing 3300 on SPX

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The nice topping setup from my post last week failed to deliver, with SPX finding support once again at the daily middle band, and the very nice bull flag channel on NDX failed to break down as I was hoping it might. Instead it continued to form and delivered the high retest that we have seen this week. So what now? Well the high retests on NDX and SPX have of course set up possible alternate double top setups which are again of high quality, so this is the next important inflection point,and in the event that the SPX daily middle band continues to be solid support, perhaps the last inflection point before a retest of the all time high on SPX.

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Possible H&S Forming Here

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SPX didn’t quite reach the 3290 bull scenario target area that I was talking about last week but made a respectable 3280 or so before rejecting back into a retest of the established support and possible H&S neckline in the 3200 area. The SPX hourly RSI 14 sell signal reached the possible near miss target and an RSI 5 buy signal has now fixed.

Interestingly the high last week established a possible new rising wedge resistance trendline from the March lows, which is a development that I’m watching with interest, as the retracement since has broken rising wedge support and has put SPX into a possible topping process.

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Three Theoretical Bears

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Just to start I want to state a clear health warning for the historical stats I’ll be weighing at the start of this post. This stats can give a useful lean, but even an 80% bullish lean still assumes 20% odds that the market closes higher that day, and this lean in either direction does not carry with it any indication of how far up or down markets might close. That said, as a tool in the technical toolbox these are always worth looking at in my opinion, and often deliver decent results.

In my intraday video on Thursday and my premarket videos on Friday and this morning at theartofchart.net I was looking at the historical stats for those days and for this week and proposing a possible course that SPX might take into the end of this week.

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Moving To The Next Screen

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One thing I try to stress in these posts is that the movement of the market can, to a significant extent, be broken down into a series of inflection points and, depending on the outcomes at those inflection points, the market moves to the next inflection point or screen.

Last week there was a very nicely formed inflection point and the decision at that inflection point was made on Friday, with a smaller bull flag channel ultimately breaking up with a target at a retest of the short term high at 3184.15, and a larger bull flag channel also breaking up with a target at a retest of the June high at 3233.13. Both targets have now been reached, with the high today on SPX at a marginal higher high at 3235.32.

Was this good news for bulls? Well not necessarily no, as my bear scenario had a decline ideally into the 2880 area before a likely retest of the June high to set up a possible double top for this move up since the March low. As that retest has been done now instead, that possible double top has been set up earlier and SPX has arrived at this next inflection point.

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Update On COVID and SPX

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I was reading a very interesting article yesterday on the progress of COVID-19 and it was interesting not so much because of what was said, as for the decent quality numbers that it was quoting on COVID-19 exposures in the US population, and the fatality rate from the now decently sized statistical sample of exposed population and consequent deaths. In summary about 5% to 8% of the US population has now been exposed and are showing antibodies, and the death rate so far, subject to some likely attribution of deaths to other causes, is coming through at between 0.49% to 0.78% of those exposed. If you’d like to see the source article you can see that here.

If you haven’t seen it before I’ll be referring back to my 20th March post ‘A Short History Of Superflu Pandemics‘ and so I’m linking back to that for reference.

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