Since my post a week ago SPX has retested the all time high as expected and made a marginal higher high, the rising wedge from the December low has broken down, the second daily RSI 5 sell signal since the December low has fixed, the first having played out into the March low, SPX has broken important short term trend support at the 50 hour MA for the first time since March, and backtested that as resistance, and also broken the weekly pivot at 2925.(more…)
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At the end of every year Stan and I do a public webinar where we look at the more likely options for price moves on indices, bonds, forex, metals, energies and other commodities over the coming year. At the one we recorded on 30th December 2018 we were asked a question as to what could invalidate the scenario that SPX was in an ongoing bear market and I gave the reply below talking about the important resistance at the monthly middle band in an ongoing market.
Excerpt from 2019 Outlook public webinar recorded 30th December 2018 looking at the SPX monthly middle band in bear markets. :(more…)
In my premarket video this morning I was looking at key support and resistance to define what we were likely to see on SPX this week. Resistance I put at the new weekly pivot at 2907.7. ES was opening the week below this and if that held as resistance, then this swing high might be behind us. That has not held as resistance, ES is back above it, at 2910 at the time of writing, and WP is currently holding as support. This opens a very possible retest of the 2019 high and likely at least marginal higher high above that.
ES Jun 60min:(more…)
SPX has spent the week inching through the topping process, with some progress particularly yesterday and today. Yet another higher high may be needed, as I was suggesting in my premarket video this morning. That is below with an update on ES and the usual 21 other futures charts.(more…)
This really is one of the most nicely formed trendline highs on SPX/ES here that I’ve seen in a while and, so far at least, trendline resistance is holding like a champ. As long as that remains the case we should either be starting the first swing down now or, if the weekly pivot on ES at 2879.50 can’t be broken and converted to resistance on this test, we would likely need one more high retest to complete a slightly larger double top than the one that has already formed and broken down on both SPX and ES.
The short term setup here is a double top that might be a Janus bull flag. That’s a pattern of mine and I haven’t yet found time to write a definition page with examples but the short version is that a double top has formed and broken down slightly. At this stage SPX either heads to the double top target, or rejects back into a full high retest. One of those two scenarios should be next. I talked about the setup here and support levels in my premarket video this morning.(more…)
On Tuesday I was looking at the obvious resistance trendlines on SPX that might be hit this week in the 2885-2900 area and I’ve been watching those since. This morning they have been hit at 2891/2 with a possible hourly RSI 14 sell signal brewing, so this is an important inflection point and possible swing high area. I talked about that before the open this morning and this is the full version below of my premarket video also covering the usual wide array of future and forex instruments.(more…)
The short term resistance on the SPX 5dma and 50hma that held for much of last week eventually broke and delivered the high retest and marginal higher high that I was looking for in the event of that break. So what now?
Well I’m expecting this to be the second high of a double top or possibly making the head on an H&S. 15min sell signals have fixed on SPX and an hourly sell signal has fixed this morning on ES. This high could already be in, and the rising wedge on ES from the last low has now broken down, which is promising. A small double top has broken down slightly towards a possible H&S neckline in the 2854 area, and there is now a substantial double top in place which on a sustained break below 2789 would look for alternate targets in either the 2728 or 2706 area.(more…)