Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Rolling Over

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So far, the reversal at strong resistance at the monthly middle band and the main support/resistance trendline from the 2009 low is proceeding as expected. The next three weeks lean bearish, with strongly bearish leaning days Thursday 11th May, Wednesday & Thursday 17th & 18th May before we see the next strongly bullish leaning day on Thursday 25th May. This is a good time for SPX to turn down and do some significant damage to the downside.

In the short term the downtrend has started well, the daily middle band, and weekly and monthly pivots at 4130 have been converted to resistance and SPX tested the daily lower band yesterday.

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A Decent Start

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So far, the reversal at strong resistance at the monthly middle band and the main support/resistance trendline from the 2009 low is proceeding as expected. Monday was bullish as expected, there are high quality double tops formed on SPX/ES, NDX/NQ and INDU/YM. Yesterday there was a decent rejection from Monday’s highs and today, leaning 61.9% bearish, would be a good opportunity to confirm yesterday’s slight closing break below the SPX daily middle band.

The next two weeks lean bearish, with strongly bearish leaning days today, Thursday 11th May, Wednesday & Thursday 17th & 18th May before we see the next strongly bullish leaning day on Thursday 25th May. This is a good time for SPX to turn down and do some significant damage to the downside. The key to the day in my view is whether the weekly and monthly pivots, both currently at 4130 can be converted to resistance today. If we see that and the daily middle band breaks with any confidence, then the path to the downside will be open.

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Mayday

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SPX broke up through the possible H&S setup on Friday and delivered a full retest of the April high, closing the month six handles under key resistance at the monthly middle band and testing the main support/resistance trendline from the 2009 low. So what now?

Well, this is the main resistance that SPX has been failing at, and we now have the high quality topping pattern that I’ve been looking for, on decent quality hourly negative divergence, with matching topping patterns and divergence on other indices. This is the inflection point, right here, and the odds strongly favor SPX failing here into at least a strong retracement, and very possibly a leg down into a new bear market low.

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Possible High Being Made

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SPX went down a little further than was ideal, and then rallied very hard yesterday, so the topping pattern scenario is still on track.

The break below the daily middle band confirmed on Wednesday and SPX broke back hard over the middle band again yesterday. A close over 4115 again today will confirm the break back above. There is the option of a hard rejection back below that today, which would be unusual on a Friday, but definitely possible as today is the last day of April, and the stats for that lean 67% bearish.

SPX daily BBs chart:

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