So remember, boys ‘n’ girls, an inverted yield curve has 100% prediction success with respect to recessions, but you’re supposed to believe that this time, which is the most severe one ever, is going to magically be different.
![](https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/slopechart_FR_T10Y3M-640x343.jpg)
So remember, boys ‘n’ girls, an inverted yield curve has 100% prediction success with respect to recessions, but you’re supposed to believe that this time, which is the most severe one ever, is going to magically be different.