I’ll come right out and say it: fortunes are going to be made when Nvidia enters its bear market. Of course, people have believed that for a long while, and all that time, fortunes have indeed been made – – but by bulls, not bears, the latter of whom have funded the ceaselessly growing riches of those long NVDA.
It will end, though, as all things do, and I’d like to offer up an analog in this regard. We all know that, for years now, Nvidia has done nothing but make lifetime highs every day, drawing in more and more people.
I’ve been doing this whole charting ‘n’ trading thing for a long, long time, starting back in 1987, so I’ve seen this movie before. Back in the 1990s, the movie was called Cisco Systems. I was there for the IPO, and I saw the damned thing go up and make lifetime highs every day, just like Nvidia does today.
In support of this theory, I offer below the layered chart of NVDA (black line) and CSCO (blue line). With the exception of NVDA getting slammed particularly hard during the 2022 bear market, the patterns of these securities are remarkably similar.
Whether NVDA peaked already, or will peak this week or, God forbid, doesn’t peak until months in the future, it WILL have a sustained fall, and it WILL destroy at least a trillion dollars of shareholder value. Cisco shareholders (chart below, following its peak) didn’t expect it, and NVDA shareholders won’t either.
