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In a couple of hours, Mr. Powell is going to ride off into the sunset. He’s a lucky man. The next chair is going to have to contend with a complete shitshow as bonds plunge and interest rates rocket higher, against all the wishes of the administration.
The TLT, shown below, has been grinding away for years, but it’s clearly an ill beast.
Excerpted from the latest edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole:
Fears about “inflation” the war-driven rise in prices of certain commodities and their knock-on effects have bounced Treasury yields a bit. The 10-2 yield curve has flattened under this pressure as the market weighs whether or not this will manifest in a more hawkish Fed.
So, I know I have my bias. Controlling that bias is what ensures I stay solvent and profitable. But in trading nobody gets rid of their bias, they merely control it. I can go long or short and enjoy the profits and handle the losses just fine. I prefer bear markets because I am simply more comfortable trading them, the profits come more easily for me personally, and the world makes a little more sense to me. When we are in the midst of bull markets, I admit I am just not comfortable.
I have learned to trade them a bit better, but at my core I feel like bull markets tend to benefit the masses for ineptness. Now before anyone gets in a tizzy, I’m not trying to say, “All bulls this” and “All bears that”. What I mean is that bear markets, in my perspective, tend to separate the kids from the adults, so to speak. When in the midst of a market storm, there are those who know how to play, those who know they don’t do well and stand on the sidelines, and then those who get smashed to bits. Bear markets feel like a rite of passage. If you can survive them, then you can survive anything.
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