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While dreaming up ratio charts, I stumbled upon EFA/DIA, which is equities outside North America divided by the Dow Jones 30 ETF. This succinctly shows how the United States has blasted the rest of the world to smithereens. It’s actually kind of jaw-dropping, a la Japan in 1989. Of course, we know how well that worked out.
In my last post on oil and natural gas I was talking about starting to do a post every week or two reviewing a single instrument that I cover in my futures and currencies charts on multiple timeframes to sketch out the higher probability paths going forward. This is the first of those posts, apart obviously from my earlier posts on oil and nat gas. I’ll be aiming to do one of these posts every week.
This week I’m going to look at a very important inflection point that looks likely to be coming up on US treasuries over the next few months to a year. I wrote in January on the TNX daily chart below that I was expecting a possible topping pattern to form, either a double top or an H&S after a test of the obvious possible H&S neckline at 32.53.
(more…)I did a post a month ago looking at the triangles on Oil & Natural Gas. I’ve been following both since, amid the intermittent turbulence in the Middle East, and the rhyming triangles scenario I laid out in the post likely failed on Friday on natural gas. I’ll cover that further down but first I’ll review where we are up to on oil.
On the WTIC chart the triangle that broke down had a target at a retest of the May 2023 low at 63.57, and that remains the case. Invalidation of that target would be at a break back over triangle resistance, currently in the 81.2 area.
(more…)There’s an old saying from Mark Twain that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes, meaning that the same patterns recur, but are never quite the same.
Back on Sunday 11th August I recorded a The Bigger Picture video in which I was looking at two possible bearish triangles on oil and gas. These weren’t at the same stage, but I have been thinking that they might well be part of the same possible overall sequence.
A couple of weeks later the triangle on oil (shown here on $WTIC), broke down with a minimum target at a retest of the 2023 low at 63.57. This is the chart I posted with The Bigger Picture video I recorded on 25th August.
(more…)Gold and Silver are kind of like Elon Musk and Kimball Musk. They’re related, but one of them gets almost all the attention. Let’s give Kimball, I mean silver, a bit of screen time.
Here is the Dow Industrials divided by silver futures. Pretty toppy, wouldn’t you say? It this completes, it means lower stocks, higher silver, or both. I’m thinking “both.”
