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This is a great example of how a stock has a personality by way of how it has behaved in the past. Take Costco (COST) as an example. See the nice, neat topping pattern on the leftmost side of the chart? Notice how it didn’t amount to anything? Well, that’s precisely what just happened again. I had puts on it but got out at a small loss Thursday when I realized that this thing is just too robust, as it has plainly demonstrated in the past.
Most analogs offered these days borrow price data from many years, or even decades, ago. I’d like to offer something more recent. I was wondering to myself what the last major dip in the market looked like just before it commenced. I noticed a sizable “stutter” to the market’s ascent in 2021, and I couldn’t help but notice we had exactly the same thing happen in April of this year.
Although the /ES and /NQ have been flipped from green to red all night long, the small caps, my biggest and most aggressive position, have been steadfastly red. As I type this, half an hour before the open, the /RTY is down almost a full percentage point (which qualifies for a “crash” these days).
I’ll come right out and say it: fortunes are going to be made when Nvidia enters its bear market. Of course, people have believed that for a long while, and all that time, fortunes have indeed been made – – but by bulls, not bears, the latter of whom have funded the ceaselessly growing riches of those long NVDA.
It will end, though, as all things do, and I’d like to offer up an analog in this regard. We all know that, for years now, Nvidia has done nothing but make lifetime highs every day, drawing in more and more people.
