Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Cost of War

By -

Let’s do a thought experiment.

It is the evening of February 27, 2026. The trading day is over, and you’re thumbing through the local paper while dinner is heating up.

A bright flash appears in the kitchen and, terribly startled, you whip your head around to see a magical fairy holding a sheet of paper with words of gold written upon it. (The fairy is actually just George Santos wearing a cheap set of costume wings on his back, but be fair, a man’s gotta work).

The magical fairy dramatically hoists the paper aloft, clears his throat, and reads the following:

"Greetings, friend. I come to you from August 12, 2026, almost half a year into your future. You have proved yourself a good and worthy person, and I hereby bequeath unto you salient information which no other traders possess. Hear me well: this Saturday, February 28th, a war will begin. That war will cost thousands of lives and many tens of billions of American dollars. It will take place in Iran, which will send energy prices much higher, and will also push bond prices lower, meaning an economy suffering with both higher interest rates and higher fuel prices. Importantly, America will be a vastly worse position in August than it is now, being both humiliated on the world stage and having lost tremendous leverage over an enemy. Do with this information what you may, good friend, for I bid you farewell."
(more…)

Mixed Feelings on Indices

By -

In my last post on Thursday I was looking at the solitary break back over the daily middle band on SPX and considering the possibility that SPX might go higher. SPX then broke back below the daily middle band again.

I was also looking at the strong rally on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and looking at the very binary setup there where it is likely either to head down to the fixed H&S target in the 9,150 area or, on a break back over the right shoulder high at 13,249.07, to reject back up to a retest of the all time high.

(more…)

One-Third of Insanity

By -

Have you had enough? I sure have. Four solid months of this nonsensical, on-again, off-again war. I won’t delve into my own views as to the purpose of this war, or who is profiting, or who is manipulating the news, because it wouldn’t matter to any of us anyway. The simple fact is that, just as I predicted (and many others did as well) TACO is upon us once again, as we “pause” for the umpteenth time and send crude oil crashing lower.

(more…)