Surely, you’ve seen this news by now, which came out Saturday:
I’m not sure what the difference is between “largely negotiated‘ and “negotiated” is, but I think this is the 73rd time a peace deal has been announced. The reaction to the news by way of Bitcoin (just about the only thing trading on the weekend with more than three participants) was immediate and powerful:
Over on IG Weekend (where the aforementioned three participants are hanging out), it generally showed equity indexes up 1% and oil down almost 6%. I would hasten to add that, in my experience, IG Weekend is a very unreliable indicator of what the market will actually do when trading re-opens, particularly since it has insane bid/ask spreads, but it’s seriously the only thing out there.
At the moment, crude oil is slipping (I am short APA, HAL, and SLB) although, again, I have to stress we’ve seen this movie before, and until Iran itself waves around a signed, notarized deal on live television, I’ll have my doubts.
In fact, in time I took to put together this post, BTC has already lost a chunk of its gain, which would suggest maybe the market isn’t all that sure how real and lasting this “largely negotiated” deal is. In any case, it’s a long, long time until Tuesday morning.
