Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Sell in May and go away, huh? Well, we’ll see. The thing with this Everything Bubble is that it never seems to pop. Not in any meaningful way in eighteen solid years! Indeed, as I’m typing this Thursday night, the Dow Industrials seems like it has caught its breath and is ready to blast higher again (the indicators are the CCI and RSI, shown below with each index chart).
Considering the exceptionally expensive IPOs coming at us, such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, I was curious as to historical examples of hotly anticipated IPOs and their correlation with market tops.
The clearest historical examples are these:
This is probably the strongest example. Palm’s carve-out IPO from 3Com priced at $38 on March 2, 2000, opened at $150, traded as high as $165, and closed at $95.06 on its first day — a 150% first-day gain. Within the same month, the stock had already fallen more than 50% from its first-day close.
The mania was extreme enough that Palm’s first-day valuation created the famous “Palm–3Com stub” anomaly: Palm traded so richly that, arithmetically, the rest of 3Com was being valued at a large negative amount. Chicago Booth describes this as an extreme case of mispricing.
(more…)With all the excitement about NVDA and INTU earnings, this one kind of got lost in the shuffle – Walmart (WMT):
