Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Nice Smile and Impressive Beard

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In my post on Sunday 1st June I was looking at the historically bearish leaning stats over four of the next six trading days and looking for a modest retracement that we then saw. I also mentioned that the last of those bearish leaning days was today, and that tomorrow through Monday 16th lean strongly bullish. Wednesday and Friday next week are the day before and after the holiday on Thursday 19th June, and lean neutral to slightly bullish historically, and we would often see modest volume and trading ranges, particularly as Friday is also quad witching June opex.

This is the start of a bullish opportunity window that may last for the next month or so particularly as the very important case on the legality of most of Trump’s tariffs being reviewed by the Supreme Court has been delayed until the end of July, and the 90 day window that delayed most of those tariffs in April is currently scheduled to expire on July 9th, with a general 50% tariff on all important from the EU also scheduled to start that day. I am wondering whether we might see a further 30 day delay of that July 9th window into August to land after that key Supreme Court decision.

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Setup For a Bull Run on Crypto

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In my last posts on In Monday 12th May and Thursday 22nd May I was looking at the possible setup for a retracement on Crypto that might then set up a substantial bull run on Crypto after that retracement was complete. That retracement is not yet necessarily complete, but I think it may well be, so today I want to look at that retracement, explain why I think that may be ending a bit early, and look at the large bullish IHS patterns forming on Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) that may deliver major high retests on both while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) makes substantial new all time highs.

Looking at the daily chart Bitcoin broke below the daily middle band into a test of the lower band, the 50dma and the 100k level. They held as support and Bitcoin is trying to break back over the daily middle band. The daily RSI 5 sell signal reached the full target. If the daily middle band is successfully converted back to support then this retracement is likely complete.

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A Modest Proposal

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In my last post on Sunday 1st June I was looking at the bullish leaning stats for yesterday and today and that’s been delivering. I was leaning towards seeing a retest of the May highs on ES and NQ at 6008 and 21858 respectively and we may still see those today but ……. there is another possibility that I’m considering if those highs aren’t retested today.

Of the next six days four of them lean significantly bearish historically and there is a window there for some more consolidation and possible retracement and, while these stats are just a loose guideline, I am wondering if we might see that. We’ll see. I would note though that the window closes after that, with the subsequent three days all leaning bullish.

That’s not what this post is about though. I’ve been talking all year about seeing weakness in the first half of the year and then new all-time highs in the second half of the year, and while the initial weakness was faster and harder than I was expecting, I am still expecting that follow through into new all-time highs, and I want to lay out my preferred as well as my most bullish scenario for seeing that over coming weeks.

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Weekend Thoughts

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Back in my post on Friday 16th May I was looking at the daily RSI 5 spike over 90 on SPX and noted that:

‘From here this means that SPX likely at least consolidates without going much higher for two weeks and then we could see a larger retracement but without any strong expectation of a big decline. I am wondering though about a possible backtest of the 200dma, currently in the 5760 area‘

It has been two weeks since then and we’ve seen that consolidation with a low at the backtest of the 200dma. Is there anything obviously bearish about this consolidation? Not yet, and I am still looking for likely retests of the all time highs on SPX and QQQ, and perhaps also on DIA and IWM, though I’m still thinking that an equities moonshot through the rest of the year seems unlikely.

In my premarket video for paying subscribers on Friday morning I was looking at an interesting setup on ES and NQ, where both had and still have decent quality double tops, and a smaller H&S had formed on both that on a break down would have a target close to the larger double top support levels.

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Holiday Spirits

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In my post a week ago on Friday 16th May I was looking at the break over 90 on the SPX daily RSI 5 and noted that history suggested that would likely be followed with a consolidation or retracement lasting for two weeks. I also suggested that an ideal retracement target would be a backtest of the 200dma that was broken hard at the start of last week.

With the decline since then culminating this morning (so far) in the backtest of the SPX 200dma at 5773, with the low today at 5667, that’s looking pretty good and this is also the obvious area to find support so this is a candidate low for this retracement.

What next? Well the obvious next step would be retests of the all time highs on SPX and QQQ, and ideally DIA as well, though that looks like more of a stretch. Historically this would be a very good time to see this happen as three days in each of the next three weeks lean conspicuously bullish. Even setting aside the fact that there are only four trading days next week that is a strong bullish lean, and looks like the ideal time to see these high retests.

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