Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bitcoin & Solana Break Up

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In my last post on Friday 11th April I was looking at likely rallies coming on both Crypto and equities, and posted some charts looking at the options for that rally on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD).

I posted the contemporaneous chart below back in December and I noted on the chart then that any sharp decline on equity indices historically took Bitcoin down with it, as we have seen, and noted on 11th April that any significant rally on equities would likely take Bitcoin up with it. We’ve been seeing that since.

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Flagging Markets

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In my last post on Thursday I was projecting a possible path for US indices if we are going to see decent quality bear flags form on this rally, and initially they were going to need to go down, which they have. They overshot my target trendline options at the lows yesterday, but that’s fine, as long as they turn back up in this area or not too far below into new highs for this rally.

On the SPX chart the current low could make a very decent support trendline and, if we see a next leg up start towards a new rally high, the ideal target would be the resistance trendline currently in the 5590 area. Possible resistance on the way at declining resistance from the high, currently in the 5500 area. A 15min RSI 14 buy signal has fixed.

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The Bigger Picture on US Treasuries

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Part One: The Setup

On 10th November last year I wrote a post entitled Strange Days on US Treasuries. In that post I was looking at a very important inflection point that looked likely to be coming up on US Treasuries over the next few months to a year. I would suggest you read that post for the detailed analysis there of the outlook for US debt levels and interest payments as I’ll be looking at those in less detail this week.

This is currently a series of (likely) four posts reviewing the US Dollar, US Treasuries, and why the US Dollar may lose its status as the world’s main reserve currency. I published the first post in this series on the US Dollar on Monday last week and you can see that here.

After writing a lot of this review on bonds it has become clear that I can’t fit it into one post so I am dividing it into two. This post will look at historical bull and bear markets on bonds, the setup for a major increase in bond yields over coming months and years, and why that might play out rapidly rather than slowly.

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Rally Projection & TSLA Update

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In my last post on Tuesday I was looking at the prospects for this rally on US equity indices and the first thing to say is that the tariff reprieve that triggered this rally still looks partial, temporary and fragile and that the new tariffs currently being trailed by the administration as coming soon on electronics, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals may well kill this rally when they start being implemented and that may well start soon.

The other thing I’d mention here is that while there are a lot of negotiations going on with US trading partners, it does appear that the bottom line for this administration seems to be a baseline tariff level at 10% across the board, with an additional 15% across the board on steel, aluminum, cars and perhaps soon tariffs other goods such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors that may also not be negotiable.

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Uncertain Smile

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In my posts last week on Wednesday and Friday I was looking at possible rally options from the current 2025 lows, and was looking for a rally lasting at minimum a week or two to make right shoulders on the possible H&S patterns that may be forming on SPX, QQQ and DIA here. That is proceeding slowly but I was thinking then that at minimum this rally would ideally last a week or two, and I think the odds of that look decent. The rally will be a week old tomorrow lunchtime, this is a holiday week and while there has been much talk of further tariffs coming soon, these have not yet been implemented.

I did say as well last week though that this tariff reprieve was partial, temporary and fragile, and that remains the case. If the new tariffs being trailed by the administration on electronics, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals start hitting next week then this rally may be over, and a new leg down may begin.

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