Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

In The Eye Of The Storm

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In my last post on Wednesday last week I was looking at how far the current rally on equities might get, and at the prospects that peace negotiations with Iran might deliver something positive.

I was skeptical about the prospects for a negotiated peace, and the talks in Islamabad on Saturday were abandoned after a day, as there was never really anything to talk about. The ten points that the US had accepted as a basis for negotiation were maximalist demands from Iran that would in effect have been a humiliating surrender by the US, and the alternative proposals from the US team on Saturday were maximalist demands that asked in effect for a humiliating surrender by Iran. The talks never had any realistic chance of success or even progress on this basis.

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Apocalypse Postponed

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In my last post on Monday I gave 10% odds that a deal with Iran was reached by the time that Trump’s deadline expired yesterday evening, and no deal was reached, but Trump nonetheless said that the Iran’s existing ten point point proposal to end the war was a sufficient basis to start to negotiate a deal over the next two weeks, during which time there would be a ceasefire. US equity markets have rallied and oil prices have dropped hard on that news.

Iran’s ten point plan is as follows:

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‘Tis But A Scratch

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I read a few days ago that John Cleese was saying that politics in the US nowadays seems like an endless Monty Python sketch, and he has a point. Before I look at the US equity markets today I just want to reflect on the bizarre nature of the news we are watching nowadays.

In the ‘special military operation’ in Iran it is now clear that there were never any negotiations with Iran since the war started, and it isn’t even clear that the US wanted any talks, as the person preparing to negotiate on the Iranian side, former Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharazi, was seriously wounded in a US/Israeli attack on his Tehran home three days ago. If he survives, his enthusiasm for future negotiations might be somewhat dampened by his wife’s death in that failed assassination attempt.

Trump declared on Saturday on Truth Social that there were only 48 hours left of the ten day pause he gave to the Iranians, and if there is no ‘deal’ in that time, which frankly seems doubtful, then he would rain down hell on the civilians of Iran. Since then he has said in another ‘Truth’ that he will now not start bombing Iran ‘back to the Stone Age’ until Tuesday (tomorrow).

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Trump’s Tar Baby

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In my last post on Tuesday 24th March I was talking about my hope that the ‘good news’ rally that had started on Monday might last a week or two, ideally through Easter, but noted that the lack of any actual good news might well be a problem. No real good news came through after that and the rally failed into another leg down, led by SPX and QQQ.

At the low on Friday there was strong positive divergence on the 15min charts on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM and that played out in a modest rally and low retest yesterday, and what might be a more powerful rally starting this morning.

The main reason that I was hoping for a rally that would last through Easter was that it would allow larger H&S right shoulders to develop on SPX and DIA and that didn’t happen, though I mentioned on DIA that there were two obvious possible H&S necklines and DIA broke the higher neckline but is now testing the lower neckline in the 450 area.

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Four Horsemen – The US Dollar

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There were four big setups, each covering multiple tickers, that I was looking in my bi-weekly The Bigger Picture webinars last year and at the start of this year that looked very strong, but I was struggling to come up with any decent fundamental reasons why they might play out.

That changed when the US attacked Iran on 28th February, and I have since written two posts on the (very bullish) setups on the oil charts first on 3rd March, and after the first phase of those bottoming setups had all made target, with a follow up on 13th March. As these patterns were all at the bottom of decent quality bull flags from the 2022 highs, I am still expecting to see full retests of the 2022 highs on all of $WTIC (Light Crude Oil), $BRENT (Brent Crude Oil) and $GASO (Gasoline), with $HOIL (Heating Oil) having already reached that target.

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