Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Notes From the Rabbit Hole

By -

Silhouettes of a bull and a bear representing market trends, with a white rabbit sitting between them, all set against a white background.
NFTRH 917

This report started out like any other. A geek doing his geek-like thing, managing what has been a thus far successful market phase. But as the report wore on, my views got right-sized in real time. I have not edited (other than grammar and some untoward wording, etc. and the italicized summary inputs) anything, so as to leave the progression of my learning on the fly intact for your review. It is published publicly with slight edits and certain actionable subscriber content redacted.

(more…)

More Than ‘Just a Bubble’

By -

The Semiconductor Bubble is about over-valuation and momentum, outstanding fundamentals will not stop the correction to come

Note: Never will you read one word of my material that has been edited or altered, let alone written by, AI. It is unfortunate that this even needs to be stated, but it’s out there, folks. Content written by machines. Outside of ‘quant’, you cannot automate real market analysis.

Harken back, if you will, to a time some hazy years ago that I sold Nvidia too soon and neglected to buy it back on its long journey upward, leading the Semiconductor bubble to come by a country mile. I since traded it a couple times, but the real money had been made by others.

(more…)

Gold’s Leadership Handoff

By -

Gold’s leadership was on display last year, but it’s a new phase in 2026

Before beginning this article, it is time to introduce a short note to precede my posts:

Never will you read one word of my material that has been edited or altered, let alone written by, AI. It is unfortunate that this even needs to be stated, but it’s out there, folks. Content written by machines. Outside of ‘quant’, you cannot automate real market analysis.

Gold’s utility includes…

  • Inflation protection? Yes, over the long-term because central banks and governments are agents of inflation over the long-term. Over any shorter-term phase, it’s inflation utility is suspect, or secondary to other items like silver and commodities.
  • Disaster protection? Yes, if you define disaster as the economic condition we are heading headlong toward as a result of the above. War? Terror? Pestilence? Please.
  • Insurance? Yes, look no further than its leadership role in 2025, as it alone kicked off the next macro phase while most markets tanked on global trade fears.
(more…)

Phase Two: Commodities

By -

Macro shifts in favor of commodity related stocks

This is not Grandpa’s macro, and these are not Grandpa’s commodities. The traditional commodity complex has shifted to more critical status, amplified by progressing technology, and it probably goes without saying, global trade tensions/wars.

Phase 2; Gold’s Handoff to the Wider Commodity Spectrum

We are in the next phase, whereby gold led (as usual) all markets in H1, 2025, silver then took over from gold (Silver/Gold ratio exploded upward) and the positive market effects spread to commodities, and in our particular area of interest, critical or strategic commodities (like Cu, Ni, Li, REE, u3o8, etc.).

(more…)

SPX Target Registered

By -

Excerpted from the May 10th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole

While I am a gold bug, I am not a narrowly focused bug. In the markets I want to increase capital, where ever that can be achieved. The last several months of portfolio diversification have provided a solid increase. But it is time now to rebalance and tighten the focus. That is illustrated in much more detail in the segments that followed this one, in NFTRH 914.

SPX Target Registered

I seriously had no clue that SPX was even close to target, let alone realized it had hit the 7400 measured target yesterday, until I took a look yesterday afternoon. Though upside targets are seldom stop signs (at least mine aren’t, they are objectives laid out well ahead of time), it does give me a bit of pause.

(more…)