Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Oil, Deceleration & Crack Up Boom?

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von Mises Crack Up Boom could follow the negative economic effects of war

There is currently much hype in the media about a hawkish Fed because the media wrongheadedly anticipates rate hikes due to the “inflation” being caused by rising oil prices (directly and indirectly). Furthermore, CME traders, often little more than a wind sock indicating current sentiment as opposed to accurate forward forecasters, have completely backed off their previous view of rate cuts, and now increasingly favor a rate hike this year.

Perfect!

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Searching For a Low

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the gold stock correction is playing out mostly as expected, now hitting targets

Back in January we (NFTRH) targeted the PDAC time frame (1st week of March) for a much needed correction of the excesses to begin. Gold stocks, along with gold and silver were due for a beat down after all that 2025 bullishness and market leadership.

This was aside from the fundamentals, which have deteriorated to a moderate degree in 2026. It was simply market mechanics. The market was going to find some excuse to knock gold stocks down. That excuse finally came in the form of war and the resulting spike in oil prices (oil/energy being a heavy factor in mining costs).

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Interim Disinflation Within Inflation

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The view is and has been disinflation first, then a return of the inflationary macro

Sometimes I feel as though I write the same public article over and over. But that is because the changes since 2020, and especially 2022, have been profound from a standpoint of market management. In NFTRH we define and employ that management.

In line with our long-standing view that the now inflationary macro would undergo its first countertrend, an interim disinflationary trend, Treasury bonds from the shortest durations on up to the longer durations are on plan.

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2026 Monetary, Fiscal Backdrop & Economy

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A modified * excerpt from the February 22nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 903:

The Drive to the Mid-Terms

We know that the Trump administration is going to do all it can to to pump the economy, or more precisely, the stock market, into the mid-term elections. It was no coincidence that AG Bondi was babbling about the Dow over 50,000 at a hearing that had NOTHING to do with the stock market. I believe Scott Bessent is hard at work trying to engineer policy of both government and Fed in order to see to a nice economic backdrop into Q4.

Politicians. These may be absurdly different ones. But politicians be politicians and they do politician things, like attempt to hoodwink the public through fiscal maneuvering and hence, manipulation every election cycle, regardless of political party.

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A Disinflationary Path……

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……….to the Next Inflation Problem

The near-term path is disinflationary, but the macro is now clearly inflationary

With Treasury bonds firming up lately, it is time to review the game plan NFTRH has been working to since 2023. After the macro not so subtlety obliterated its decades-long trend of disinflationary signaling in favor of inflationary signaling by the Treasury bond market, a cool down was in order.

To review, our “Continuum” chart was primary in keeping NFTRH, its writer, and its subscribers on the right side of the macro since the service was born in September, 2008 (into the teeth of a major macro liquidity event).

For example, you may recall the “Great Rotation” hype of 2013. That was when a bond market bear was supposedly brewing and a rotation into stocks would be at hand. Well, that second thing happened, but it was not at the expense of the bond market, as the 30yr Treasury yield rose to the EMAs 100 & 120, smashed against them, and reversed. That was one of several instances over 4 decades that the Continuum was tested, but remained in disinflationary lockdown.

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