Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Age of Inflation on Demand

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Excerpted from the January 26 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 846

NFTRH 846 went much further off the normal path than this excerpt, as its writer was almost unconsciously caught up in the process of properly defining the current Macro, which by extension will help us properly set strategies for 2025 and beyond.

It takes a lot of deep and ongoing work, not guessing or bias-promoting. We do this work in order to end up right on the big swings when the time is right, and to be right along the way in the interim. Charting and stock picking are fun, but only after the real work is done.

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Contrarian Pivot?

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The stock market’s trends are up, but a contrarian pivot point is likely on the horizon

Excerpted from the January 19 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 845

As an intro to this fundamentally bearish article, I would like to state that strictly as a technical analyst, I have a bullish view of the US stock market. There can be no other view for a TA, given the firm uptrends. But from the macro-fundamental side of things, danger signals aplenty manifested in 2024, into the new year.

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2025 Begins……

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Our plans are well in motion for a stock market top and important changes to the macro

This article attempts to put clearer words and images to the many words I expended in my interview with Jordan on Monday discussing the macro (and the precious metals).

For virtually all of 2024 NFTRH has been on a plan that saw two things in the stock market…

  1. Bullish and
  2. High risk due multiple indications of a coming top

Risk indicators have generally been of two kinds; signs of extreme complacency and confidence, and analogs of past conditions that extrapolate to a bearish outcome. Frankly, it has been a bit of a trick remaining bullish with the market’s trends and ongoing momentum, while being aware of the risk profile. But that is our job at NFTRH; to be on the right side of the markets, bias be damned. The right side in 2024 was the bullish side.

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Famous Last Words

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Jerome Powell: “I think it’s pretty clear we’ve avoided a recession”

In response to a media member, who at Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference, asked Jerome Powell if he thinks we’ve avoided the recession that everyone [read: the media and its obsession with the supposed negative indications of the former Yield Curve inversion] was talking about a couple of years ago, the Fed chief replied without missing a beat. Not only have we avoided a recession, but it’s pretty clear.

“Pretty Clear”? I don’t think so. At least not in the direction you indicate. It is clear to me that the macro continues to swing toward the counter-cyclical, recessionary “bust” end of the spectrum. Below are two indications toward that. There are many other negative signals in play as well. But it’s only one article and I’ll update the two I consider among the most important to my macro analysis.

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Bearish Potential into Inauguration Day

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Signals in support of a contrarian bear setup in the US Stock

Let’s look at some pictures of the developing risk situation in the US stock market, in light of Inauguration Day upcoming on January 20, 2025, when the new president will be sworn in and his “Make America Great Again” jingle reconstituted. This group of indicators is far from exhaustive, as we use several other indicators and tools in the NFTRH service, many of which also currently forecast a coming phase when risk is to be realized, rather than just implied, as it is now.

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