Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

2026 Monetary, Fiscal Backdrop & Economy

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A modified * excerpt from the February 22nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 903:

The Drive to the Mid-Terms

We know that the Trump administration is going to do all it can to to pump the economy, or more precisely, the stock market, into the mid-term elections. It was no coincidence that AG Bondi was babbling about the Dow over 50,000 at a hearing that had NOTHING to do with the stock market. I believe Scott Bessent is hard at work trying to engineer policy of both government and Fed in order to see to a nice economic backdrop into Q4.

Politicians. These may be absurdly different ones. But politicians be politicians and they do politician things, like attempt to hoodwink the public through fiscal maneuvering and hence, manipulation every election cycle, regardless of political party.

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A Disinflationary Path……

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……….to the Next Inflation Problem

The near-term path is disinflationary, but the macro is now clearly inflationary

With Treasury bonds firming up lately, it is time to review the game plan NFTRH has been working to since 2023. After the macro not so subtlety obliterated its decades-long trend of disinflationary signaling in favor of inflationary signaling by the Treasury bond market, a cool down was in order.

To review, our “Continuum” chart was primary in keeping NFTRH, its writer, and its subscribers on the right side of the macro since the service was born in September, 2008 (into the teeth of a major macro liquidity event).

For example, you may recall the “Great Rotation” hype of 2013. That was when a bond market bear was supposedly brewing and a rotation into stocks would be at hand. Well, that second thing happened, but it was not at the expense of the bond market, as the 30yr Treasury yield rose to the EMAs 100 & 120, smashed against them, and reversed. That was one of several instances over 4 decades that the Continuum was tested, but remained in disinflationary lockdown.

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Warsh, Silver Flash Crash & Gold Stocks

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Excerpted opening segments of NFTRH 900: Warsh & The Silver Flash Crash

900

I always get amazed when the number of NFTRH editions hits a round number. 900 times have I sat down and written these things. I love it. Especially when there is something of substance to write about. Boy, did last week give us something to sink our teeth into.

So, let’s downplay the macro stuff that got us to this point successfully (okay, we’ll have to include the Gold/Silver ratio), and the stock market stuff, which is basically little changed. Instead, we’ll look at what I think is a more pressing situation; interpreting what this precious metals correction is, and is not.

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3 Snowmen & Precious Metals

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Two segments excerpted from the January 25th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 899

The 3 Snowmen

Long-term subscribers may remember the 3 Snowmen. The HUI measured target of 888 I had back in the 2010 time frame. It was a simple measurement of the crash and recovery pattern of 2008-2010. As a TA, that is often what I do; measure things.

Well, in a fine lesson about being open-minded, Bernanke’s cyclical inflationary emergency operations altered the macro and croaked my target for the counter-cyclical gold sector. Mr. Fat Head (H&S) formed and that was that. The dawn of a terrible bear market, 888 just fantasy unfulfilled.

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Late-Stage Silver & Gold Rally

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An update on the silver and gold rally

There has not been much use writing about the precious metals rally lately because, why add to the noise? The time for making noise was back in the spring when the Gold/Silver ratio topped (Silver/Gold bottomed) and we prepared for a stronger rally in the precious metals, this time led by silver, and also including the wider “inflation trades”. Now we look ahead in a very different way.

Silver

Movie poster for 'Superstar: Dare to Dream' featuring a woman in a schoolgirl outfit and a man in a blazer, both striking a dramatic pose.

Let’s start with the superstar of the rally. Silver has gone vertical and on Wednesday ticked our long-term target of 92. This was based on measurement of the giant, decades-long Cup as the silver price finally broke above the rim in the 50 area and well, boy did it break.

The fundamentals have been broadcast far and wide. These include increasing industrial use in many different areas, from Medical Equipment to Clean Energy (although the solar industry is now seeking to employ less expensive alternative materials).

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