Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

2025 Followed Gold’s Lead

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Silver Followed (And How)

2025 was was a bad one in many ways except investment (IMO & speaking personally)

A silver (and gold) lining was, of course, the precious metals sector for we who had anticipated the bull. Gold led, the rest of the precious metals complex, and eventually broader markets, followed.

2026? It can’t get any worse socio-politically, and pending a potential Q1/H1 liquidity issue, could be just as good investment-wise

With the Fed already on a rate cutting regimen and positioned for some form of QE (as it plans to buy short-term Treasuries and let MBS roll off the books), and Trump soon to tap a yes-man to chair the Fed, the inflation problem they appear to want to summon should lift a wider segment of the broad commodity and resources sectors.

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New Macro; Gold, Stocks & Debt

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The new macro features real assets over paper/digital assets

I have harped upon the symbolic picture of the new macro since 2022. That was the year that the trend in long-term Treasury bond yields was broken in a fierce rebellion by a bond market that had enough of the previous decades of monetary and fiscal chicanery.

It’s over folks. What was – a disinflationary continuum in declining yields permitting the Fed and government alike to print/bailout/inflate at will – no longer is. Period.

Line graph depicting the 30-Year US Treasury Yield Index with annotations highlighting key economic events and figures, including monthly exponential moving averages and a commentary on inflation trends.
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Silver, Silver/Gold and Party Time

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NFTRH 891 excerpt: Silver & Silver/Gold ratio lead a holiday event

Excerpted from the November 30th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole:

Silver, Silver/Gold & Party Time

Well, it happens. There will be times when my favored scenarios do not play out. In the current case, one of three possibilities (one of two that were favored) is disqualified and it is entirely possible – with holiday seasonal caveats – that the least favored case will play out. Allow me to dive deeper and review the options.

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Gold Stocks Resume Rally

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Broad Market Shakes Off Mini Correction

Gold stocks rally with the broad market, and continue leading it

The gold stock sector has not been unique since the spring, when it was relatively strong while cyclical markets imploded under the pressure of Tariff mania. However, once the broads got on board the rally theme gold stocks have been part of the party (not unique) and leaders of it.

The GDX/SPY ratio pulled back hard in October, led a pullback in the broad markets, and gold stocks have since recovered leadership after holding the uptrend.

A financial chart showing the GDX/SPY ratio over time, with price movements and technical indicators for gold stocks.
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Commodities & the Next Major Macro Phase

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As the macro backdrop evolves, our investment orientation will include more commodity-related investments and speculations

It comes down to a question of when (not if, in my opinion) the broad markets will swing toward a coming inflation trade in a wider segment of the commodity world. Currently, per the work done in this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 889, and many reports that preceded it, we are in an interim disinflationary phase. This has been indicated by yield curves, among other measures we use.

The 10yr-2yr yield curve had steepened with a mildly disinflationary underpinning, as evidenced by the downtrends in its nominal 10- and 2-year yield components. Currently, as the curve travels sideways, neither steepening nor flattening, the question is whether Goldilocks may get an interim bid to end the year.

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