Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Reality is One Thing, Markets Another

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Excerpted from the November 2nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 887):

As noted last week, I am hearing all too much talk about a market crash to feel comfortable in a bearish view beyond the very short-term. Yes, the national debt (along with debts around the globe) is increasing with no end in sight. YouTube’s algo keeps feeding my TV video interviews of deep market thinkers talking about the coming crash. CNN even talked crash with 1929 author Andrew Sorkin. Ooh, scary!

It was October, after all, the most overrated, supposedly bearish month of the year. Well, nothing is foolproof, least of all market seasonals, but we are now in November, the traditional beginning of the supposedly bullish period that ends with “go away in May.”

The October crash talk is a “tell” that a crash is probably not imminent. Here is another. While I take issue with minor elements of CNN’s interpretation of the Fear/Greed index, you just don’t tend to get market crashes from all-time highs with sentiment readings like this. Market crashes tend to occur after enough bearish activity has already happened to drive mass sentiment to fearful.

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“Gold Bubble” Callers, On Cue

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Below is a profound picture of the gold bubble

But first, let’s review one of several “gold bubble” headlines that have appeared recently. In this piece, the analyst in question and his bubbly views are behind a paywall. But a writer at Investing.com highlights the analyst’s views publicly.

Gold may be in a bubble set to burst, economist warns

If you are not familiar with me, rest assured I have been down this path of rebuking “gold bubble” theorists before. Recently, here:

Why Gold is “Value” in Today’s Economy

…and as far back as 2007 here:

Gold: A Value Proposition

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Critical Mineral Exploration

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Manufacturing, Bessent & the Orange Man

Excerpted from the October 12th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 884:

[edit] A reader commented at the Substack version of this article (please subscribe, it’s free) suggesting that I not redact the names of the stocks in question (below) so that readers can measure the value of my “recommendations” before subscribing.

My response: I understand, and agree to a point. That point is one I don’t cross, however. If [NFTRH Premium] subscribers are trying to buy/add to positions, having me blabbing about them is counter-productive. I do not promote at all costs. That’s the next newsletter down the street. As a side note, most of this stuff has already gone up so far that I would not reco buying up here. All I am doing is in some cases adding on pullbacks.

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Future of Mineral Exploration

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Mineral Exploration: 18 years in the desert, the times they are a changin’

[edit] Also reference the September 3 article Junior Mining Basket Case.

The area of mineral exploration has long been cast aside. Whether precious (Gold, Silver) or more economically strategic (Rare Earth, Platinum/Palladium, Uranium, Copper and Nickel, etc.). This area has long been ignored in favor of sexier stuff over any given period during those 18 years. You know, Cloud/SaaS, Solar/EV and most recently, AI. The sexy stuff driven to over-valuation by rolling emotional hysterias. In other words, the stock market.

Gold stocks had been such a cast aside area. Producers, royalties, maturing developers of mines. The whole world appears to be getting in on the play now. But it’s got a lot further to go pending the next real correction. Now, the cat (the price of the HUI Gold Bugs Index) is out of the bag. My long-held target of 500 is history, at least so far on this move.

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Beginning Of The End, But First A Bond Rally

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A recession (and bond rally) is oncoming, but first the stock market has to finish doing what it does…

[Note!] In the time it took to write this post the stock market has rethought its initial celebratory impulse. Interesting. Gold and gold stocks are still fine. But cyclical commodities are not so fine. They are positively correlated to the economy, after all. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Separately, bonds are doing as they should do.

Wayne? Garth? Tell the nice people what it does.

wayne & garth
Party on!
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