Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Warsh, Silver Flash Crash & Gold Stocks

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Excerpted opening segments of NFTRH 900: Warsh & The Silver Flash Crash

900

I always get amazed when the number of NFTRH editions hits a round number. 900 times have I sat down and written these things. I love it. Especially when there is something of substance to write about. Boy, did last week give us something to sink our teeth into.

So, let’s downplay the macro stuff that got us to this point successfully (okay, we’ll have to include the Gold/Silver ratio), and the stock market stuff, which is basically little changed. Instead, we’ll look at what I think is a more pressing situation; interpreting what this precious metals correction is, and is not.

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3 Snowmen & Precious Metals

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Two segments excerpted from the January 25th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 899

The 3 Snowmen

Long-term subscribers may remember the 3 Snowmen. The HUI measured target of 888 I had back in the 2010 time frame. It was a simple measurement of the crash and recovery pattern of 2008-2010. As a TA, that is often what I do; measure things.

Well, in a fine lesson about being open-minded, Bernanke’s cyclical inflationary emergency operations altered the macro and croaked my target for the counter-cyclical gold sector. Mr. Fat Head (H&S) formed and that was that. The dawn of a terrible bear market, 888 just fantasy unfulfilled.

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Late-Stage Silver & Gold Rally

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An update on the silver and gold rally

There has not been much use writing about the precious metals rally lately because, why add to the noise? The time for making noise was back in the spring when the Gold/Silver ratio topped (Silver/Gold bottomed) and we prepared for a stronger rally in the precious metals, this time led by silver, and also including the wider “inflation trades”. Now we look ahead in a very different way.

Silver

Movie poster for 'Superstar: Dare to Dream' featuring a woman in a schoolgirl outfit and a man in a blazer, both striking a dramatic pose.

Let’s start with the superstar of the rally. Silver has gone vertical and on Wednesday ticked our long-term target of 92. This was based on measurement of the giant, decades-long Cup as the silver price finally broke above the rim in the 50 area and well, boy did it break.

The fundamentals have been broadcast far and wide. These include increasing industrial use in many different areas, from Medical Equipment to Clean Energy (although the solar industry is now seeking to employ less expensive alternative materials).

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2025 Followed Gold’s Lead

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Silver Followed (And How)

2025 was was a bad one in many ways except investment (IMO & speaking personally)

A silver (and gold) lining was, of course, the precious metals sector for we who had anticipated the bull. Gold led, the rest of the precious metals complex, and eventually broader markets, followed.

2026? It can’t get any worse socio-politically, and pending a potential Q1/H1 liquidity issue, could be just as good investment-wise

With the Fed already on a rate cutting regimen and positioned for some form of QE (as it plans to buy short-term Treasuries and let MBS roll off the books), and Trump soon to tap a yes-man to chair the Fed, the inflation problem they appear to want to summon should lift a wider segment of the broad commodity and resources sectors.

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New Macro; Gold, Stocks & Debt

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The new macro features real assets over paper/digital assets

I have harped upon the symbolic picture of the new macro since 2022. That was the year that the trend in long-term Treasury bond yields was broken in a fierce rebellion by a bond market that had enough of the previous decades of monetary and fiscal chicanery.

It’s over folks. What was – a disinflationary continuum in declining yields permitting the Fed and government alike to print/bailout/inflate at will – no longer is. Period.

Line graph depicting the 30-Year US Treasury Yield Index with annotations highlighting key economic events and figures, including monthly exponential moving averages and a commentary on inflation trends.
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