Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Market Talk, Economy & Bond Market

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A premium excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 876

Market Talk

At this point, far into the broad market recovery rally with gold stocks so close to the primary target (HUI 500+/-) I want to make sure I am speaking clearly as a human, rather than mechanically as a TA or macro funda dork. That will probably shorten this report and possibly the next few reports to come, until something big happens.

Big? Well, a broad top and breakdown would be big. A Fed policy shift would be big. A significant US Dollar rally would be big (given it would be against a government that seems bent on devaluation), a precious metals upside blowout and reversal, a commodity failure, a precipitous decline in long-term Treasury yields, or a resumed rise in those yields. All big.

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Crack-Up Booming

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Credit expansion, AKA more and more debt, into von Mises Crack-Up-Boom would bring Stagflation at best, and Hyperinflation at worst in the not too distant future

[edit] Today’s better than expected Payrolls number is just a number. Real? Cooked up? To be revised? Whatever it is, it is in alignment with the article below, written before the data release. It’s a boom, after all!

At more than $36 trillion and due to be pushed toward $40 trillion by the big, beautiful debt bill, the United States is booming baby, booming! Great again, beautiful and will you look at those stock markets, ticking new highs!

Illustration of Ludwig von Mises, an economist known for advocating laissez-faire economics and the Austrian Business Cycle Theory.

Easy now, a Crack-Up-Boom is when credit (along with its evil twin, debt) runs amok. As a whole, our system creates credit and shoves it out into the economy. See The U.S. is Not a Capitalist Country for more on our debt-for-growth addiction in the age of Inflation onDemand, kicked off by Sir Alan the Monetary a quarter century ago.

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The U.S. is Not a Capitalist Country

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Under the Federal Reserve system, the U.S. is not a capitalist country, it is a socialist welfare State for the elite, compliments of inflation

Socialism For the Elite, Not Capitalism

The distinction between the United States of America’s version of ‘green’ Socialism and what is traditionally known and reviled as ‘red’ Socialism is that the recipients of the welfare are wealthy asset owners/investors. You see, it’s okay when Socialism serves the ruling and majority classes.

You own a home that has appreciated in value to bubble proportions? You’re an asset owner and your asset has been inflated in perceived value, compliments of the Federal Reserve system. My wife and I sold our bubble asset a year ago at what I believe was the top of the market. I guess you’d call that bubble “Capitalism”.

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