Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Silver, Silver/Gold and Party Time

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NFTRH 891 excerpt: Silver & Silver/Gold ratio lead a holiday event

Excerpted from the November 30th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole:

Silver, Silver/Gold & Party Time

Well, it happens. There will be times when my favored scenarios do not play out. In the current case, one of three possibilities (one of two that were favored) is disqualified and it is entirely possible – with holiday seasonal caveats – that the least favored case will play out. Allow me to dive deeper and review the options.

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Gold Stocks Resume Rally

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Broad Market Shakes Off Mini Correction

Gold stocks rally with the broad market, and continue leading it

The gold stock sector has not been unique since the spring, when it was relatively strong while cyclical markets imploded under the pressure of Tariff mania. However, once the broads got on board the rally theme gold stocks have been part of the party (not unique) and leaders of it.

The GDX/SPY ratio pulled back hard in October, led a pullback in the broad markets, and gold stocks have since recovered leadership after holding the uptrend.

A financial chart showing the GDX/SPY ratio over time, with price movements and technical indicators for gold stocks.
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Commodities & the Next Major Macro Phase

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As the macro backdrop evolves, our investment orientation will include more commodity-related investments and speculations

It comes down to a question of when (not if, in my opinion) the broad markets will swing toward a coming inflation trade in a wider segment of the commodity world. Currently, per the work done in this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 889, and many reports that preceded it, we are in an interim disinflationary phase. This has been indicated by yield curves, among other measures we use.

The 10yr-2yr yield curve had steepened with a mildly disinflationary underpinning, as evidenced by the downtrends in its nominal 10- and 2-year yield components. Currently, as the curve travels sideways, neither steepening nor flattening, the question is whether Goldilocks may get an interim bid to end the year.

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Reality is One Thing, Markets Another

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Excerpted from the November 2nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 887):

As noted last week, I am hearing all too much talk about a market crash to feel comfortable in a bearish view beyond the very short-term. Yes, the national debt (along with debts around the globe) is increasing with no end in sight. YouTube’s algo keeps feeding my TV video interviews of deep market thinkers talking about the coming crash. CNN even talked crash with 1929 author Andrew Sorkin. Ooh, scary!

It was October, after all, the most overrated, supposedly bearish month of the year. Well, nothing is foolproof, least of all market seasonals, but we are now in November, the traditional beginning of the supposedly bullish period that ends with “go away in May.”

The October crash talk is a “tell” that a crash is probably not imminent. Here is another. While I take issue with minor elements of CNN’s interpretation of the Fear/Greed index, you just don’t tend to get market crashes from all-time highs with sentiment readings like this. Market crashes tend to occur after enough bearish activity has already happened to drive mass sentiment to fearful.

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“Gold Bubble” Callers, On Cue

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Below is a profound picture of the gold bubble

But first, let’s review one of several “gold bubble” headlines that have appeared recently. In this piece, the analyst in question and his bubbly views are behind a paywall. But a writer at Investing.com highlights the analyst’s views publicly.

Gold may be in a bubble set to burst, economist warns

If you are not familiar with me, rest assured I have been down this path of rebuking “gold bubble” theorists before. Recently, here:

Why Gold is “Value” in Today’s Economy

…and as far back as 2007 here:

Gold: A Value Proposition

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