Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Silver/Gold Ratio Trades on the Cusp

By -

The Silver/Gold ratio trades, my name for a wider commodity rally, are on the cusp of another leg up

You could call them “inflation trades”, but the post-2021 phase and its heavy inflationary effects * saw commodities generally trend downward as hawkish Fed policy ** supported the US dollar.

So I came up with a new and more accurate way to describe a widespread commodity bull phase; the Silver/Gold ratio trades. When silver leads gold the indication is that cyclical markets, pumped as they were through the magic of inflationary policy, are still okay.

(more…)

Big Trade Now or After a Summer Dip?

By -

Commodity Rally, Led by Gold, Silver & TSX-V:

The commodity rally, such as it has been so far, should take on a new intensity, possibly after a summer cool-down

Below I present for you one of those charts trying to say so much it could make your eyes water and your head spin. The chart is trying to quantify the history of loosely related markets (gold, silver, broad commodities and even the Canadian TSX-V index).

The reason we are doing this work is not to be bullish on the gold price, which we have been since the monetary metal took out the bull gateway (1378) in 2019. It is not to be bullish on silver, which is and has been bullish (in a lagging manner to gold) since its pattern breakout a year ago.

(more…)

Late Innings For the Gold Stock Rally

By -

The gold stock rally is near our long-standing upside target of HUI 500 +/-

Of course, a target is just a target. Not a stop sign. But while today’s bulls were cowering or chasing Nvidia and other sexy headline items back in January, NFTRH was discussing why the macro-fundamental picture was aligning positive for the gold mining industry.

I believe backing up my assertions, so as just one example, the January 26th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 846) included this picture of the “last man standing” in the way of a purely bullish fundamental view of gold mining among other bullish signs for gold’s “real” price, as measured against cyclical markets.

(more…)

Trump 2.0, Powell & Bond Market

By -

Excerpted from the June 8th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#866):

He’s at it Again

Trump is badgering Powell relentlessly about interest rates. Aside from being great theater (of the absurd), the odds are near zero that the Fed will cut in June and very small they’ll cut in July. CME Group, which we have noted tends to be more of a windsock than an accurate prediction tool, currently sees the winds blowing to the tune of 97.4% “no cut” in June and 83.3% “no cut” in July. Come September they start to favor a .25% cut.

(more…)

Silver/Gold Ratio is Oversold

By -

Silver/Gold Ratio is Oversold, But There’s More To the Story

The Silver/Gold ratio is oversold, but silver is not “undervalued” relative to gold based merely on price

A common hue and cry from Team Silver Bug is that silver is extremely undervalued relative to its big brother in metallic monetary arms. It has to be, because its price is so cheap as measured in gold!

Not true. Silver’s price relative to gold is what the market and history – save for a few distinct upside explosions in silver and the Silver/Gold ratio – say it is. These dramatic upside events have largely been driven by macro considerations, not silver seeking out its true value before being pounded back down by some elaborate conspiracy.

(more…)