A modified * excerpt from the February 22nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 903:
The Drive to the Mid-Terms
We know that the Trump administration is going to do all it can to to pump the economy, or more precisely, the stock market, into the mid-term elections. It was no coincidence that AG Bondi was babbling about the Dow over 50,000 at a hearing that had NOTHING to do with the stock market. I believe Scott Bessent is hard at work trying to engineer policy of both government and Fed in order to see to a nice economic backdrop into Q4.
Politicians. These may be absurdly different ones. But politicians be politicians and they do politician things, like attempt to hoodwink the public through fiscal maneuvering and hence, manipulation every election cycle, regardless of political party.
They’ve got the Fed at least partially playing ball. They’ve got pro-business policies kicking in and this view is well in line with our primary macro view, which is an inflationary operation after the current disinflationary Goldilocks or something more painfully deflationary passes. The operation is expected to be perceived as beneficial at first, into year-end. Later? Not beneficial. Potentially quite destructive.
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